Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 7/29/16 Severe Weather and Flash Flood Potential

Hello to all..

..Friday will feature convective showers and thunderstorms with the potential for heavy downpours and the potential for high rainfall rates in a short period of time resulting in flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas if the high rainfall rates train over the same area and occur for a long enough period of time. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather across Southeast Cpastal New England including Cape Cod and the Islands for strong winds. The low probability for a possible isolated weak tornado or waterspout now appears confined to the offshore waters..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Evening for South Coastal Connecticut, South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for widespread 1-2″ rainfall with a band or isolated rainfall amounts of 2″ or more in any areas where thunderstorms or convective showers with heavy rainfall train over the same area. The Flash Flood Watch for Northern and Central Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and interior Southeast Massachusetts has been cancelled as computer models have shifted the heaviest rain further south over South Coastal Connecticut, South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including the Cape and Islands..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Friday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon/early evening but for now the situation will be handled via SKYWARN Self-Activation..

At 710 AM Doppler Radar was showing rainfall and some embedded heavier rainfall over Connecticut and heavier rainfall over Long Island all moving northeast. Rain should become steadier and heavier over Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts later this morning with the heaviest rainfall over South Coastal Connecticut, South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands late this morning into early evening. In the Flash Flood Watch area, 1-2″ of rain is likely with higher amounts of rainfall in areas that get repeated high rate rainfall in their area. Overnight, computer models have been keeping the heaviest rain offshore and this has led to the cancellation of the flash flood watch for North-Central Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Interior Southeast Massachusetts. In these areas and points north less than 1″ of rain over a general area is expected but any areas that receive any embedded heavier downpours could see higher rainfall amounts.

The other secondary threat is for severe weather in the form of strong to damaging winds over the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island and South Coastal Connecticut. The low probability for an isolated weak tornado or waterspout now appears confined to the offshore waters. This will continue to be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Friday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon/early evening but for now the situation will be handled via SKYWARN Self-Activation. This will be the last coordination message on this storm system unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs or time allows for a shortened coordination message to be sent if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch statement, Marine Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all..

..Friday will feature convective showers and thunderstorms with the potential for heavy downpours and the potential for high rainfall rates in a short period of time resulting in flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas if the high rainfall rates train over the same area and occur for a long enough period of time. In addition, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a marginal risk for severe weather across Southeast Cpastal New England including Cape Cod and the Islands for strong winds. The low probability for a possible isolated weak tornado or waterspout now appears confined to the offshore waters..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from Friday Morning through Friday Evening for South Coastal Connecticut, South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for widespread 1-2″ rainfall with a band or isolated rainfall amounts of 2″ or more in any areas where thunderstorms or convective showers with heavy rainfall train over the same area. The Flash Flood Watch for Northern and Central Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and interior Southeast Massachusetts has been cancelled as computer models have shifted the heaviest rain further south over South Coastal Connecticut, South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including the Cape and Islands..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Friday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon/early evening but for now the situation will be handled via SKYWARN Self-Activation..

At 710 AM Doppler Radar was showing rainfall and some embedded heavier rainfall over Connecticut and heavier rainfall over Long Island all moving northeast. Rain should become steadier and heavier over Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts later this morning with the heaviest rainfall over South Coastal Connecticut, South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands late this morning into early evening. In the Flash Flood Watch area, 1-2″ of rain is likely with higher amounts of rainfall in areas that get repeated high rate rainfall in their area. Overnight, computer models have been keeping the heaviest rain offshore and this has led to the cancellation of the flash flood watch for North-Central Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Interior Southeast Massachusetts. In these areas and points north less than 1″ of rain over a general area is expected but any areas that receive any embedded heavier downpours could see higher rainfall amounts.

The other secondary threat is for severe weather in the form of strong to damaging winds over the South Coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island and South Coastal Connecticut. The low probability for an isolated weak tornado or waterspout now appears confined to the offshore waters. This will continue to be monitored.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely on Friday. Ops at NWS Taunton are possible later Friday Morning into Friday Afternoon/early evening but for now the situation will be handled via SKYWARN Self-Activation. This will be the last coordination message on this storm system unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs or time allows for a shortened coordination message to be sent if Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch statement, Marine Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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