Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday July 18th, 2016 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night across much of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a slight risk for severe weather across Western and Central Massachusetts through Northwest Connecticut with the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM EDT Monday lasting through late Monday Evening..

The heat and humidity will continue on Monday and be even warmer and more humid than Sunday across the region. A trough and cold front is still expected to swing through Southern New England later Monday Afternoon into Monday Night with the potential of one or two rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The first round potentially being in the mid-afternoon into early evening with a second round possible in the early evening through late Monday Night around the midnight timeframe. There will be sufficient heating for destabilization and sufficiently strong shear profiles to support severe weather and the timing of the trough is looking favorable to tap into the destabilized atmosphere and the sufficiently strong shear profiles. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats though there is a secondary threat for an isolated tornado in the severe weather slight risk area covering Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut. As is generally the case with these situations, the thunderstorms will be isolated to scattered so not all areas will see thunderstorms or severe weather but some areas will see thunderstorms and localized areas scattered about Southern New England could see severe weather as the trough and cold front swing through the area later today into Monday Night with the greatest risk for severe weather in interior Southern New England especially Western and Central Massachusetts through Northern Connecticut.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM EDT Monday lasting through late Monday Evening. This will be the last coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday July 18th, 2016 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms likely Monday Afternoon through late Monday Night across much of Southern New England. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts through Northwest Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather with the rest of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM EDT Monday lasting through late Monday Evening..

The heat and humidity will continue on Monday and be even warmer and more humid than Sunday across the region. A trough and cold front will swing through Southern New England later Monday Afternoon into Monday Night with the potential of one or two rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The first round potentially being in the mid-afternoon into early evening with a second round possible in the early evening through late Monday Night around the midnight timeframe. There will be sufficient heating for destabilization and sufficiently strong shear profiles to support severe weather. The key item will be the timing of the forcing of the trough and cold front as it moves through the area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM EDT Monday lasting through late Monday Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160717_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 7/17/16 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to possibly marginally severe thunderstorms possible this Sunday afternoon and early evening in the region from around 1-7 PM. Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island are most at risk but areas to the west could also see some isolated activity. Heavy downpours causing urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats but strong winds and hail are possible in the strongest storms..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor today’s strong thunderstorm and severe weather potential. This will be the only coordination message on today’s severe weather potential unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday July 15th, 2016 Severe Weather/Heat Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms possible today across Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts. Strong Winds, Hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats. Threat is contingent on a stalled frontal boundary that causes last night’s isolated strong to severe thunderstorms across Western and Central Massachusetts being enough focus to tap into sufficient instability and shear in the atmosphere..
..Also, it will be very hot and humid today and caution is advised on strenuous outdoor activities..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions today with Ops at NWS Taunton Possible. Below is the NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion detailing today’s thunderstorm potential and a Special Weather Statement on today’s heat and humidity..

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 7/14/16 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Thursday Afternoon into early evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. There is the secondary threat for an isolated tornado in this area.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk for severe weather eastward into Central New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely no later than 2-3 PM to monitor this severe weather potential..

The headlines of this coordination message depict the severe weather potential mainly over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for Thursday Afternoon into early evening. There is expected to be sufficient instability and shear with a trigger in the atmosphere for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development over Western New England. Factors that will affect the outlook are as follows:

1.) Any cloud cover and lingering shower/thunderstorm activity in the morning that could temper instability. Doppler Radar shows an area of showers moving northeast associated with a warm front pushing through Southern New England. Behind that front, satellite imagery shows good clearing to allow for destabilization in the atmosphere to allow for sufficient instability.
2.) Timing of the pre-frontal trough to act as a trigger in the atmosphere into Western New England. This timing is expected to be close enough to peak heating to allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.

At this time, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected with the primary threats of strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning, however, there is a secondary threat for an isolated tornado for any thunderstorms that form out ahead of the main line of thunderstorms or as the line of thunderstorms organizes. If any occur, they will likely be of the short lived and smaller scale nature.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely no later than 2-3 PM to monitor this severe weather potential. This will be the last message on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday July 14th, 2016 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Thursday Afternoon into early evening, strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. There is the secondary threat for an isolated tornado in this area.
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with a potential upgrade to a slight risk for severe weather in later outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely no later than 2 PM to monitor this severe weather potential..

The headlines of this coordination message depict the severe weather potential mainly over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut for Thursday Afternoon into early evening. There is expected to be sufficient instability and shear with a trigger in the atmosphere for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development over Western New England. Factors that will affect the outlook are as follows:

1.) Any cloud cover and lingering shower/thunderstorm activity in the morning that could temper instability.
2.) Timing of the trigger in the atmosphere into Western New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely no later than 2 PM to monitor this severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be sent by 800 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160713_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 7/7/16 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms likely across much of interior Southern New England from midday through early evening Thursday. Heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with a secondary threat for strong to damaging winds and hail..
..Threat remains contingent on a trigger in the atmosphere to set off high instability induced from intense heat and humidity over the area and the ability of the high instability over the area to overcome what is still currently expected to be weak levels of wind shear in the atmosphere..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by Noon Thursday..

Intense heat and humidity coupled with an impulse in the atmosphere will lead to isolated to scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms over much of interior Southern New England today. While wind shear profiles are weak, high levels of instability in the atmosphere, forcing from the impulse and the winds that are available should be sufficient for strong thunderstorm activity with heavy rainfall having the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning as the main threats with a secondary threat for hail and strong to damaging winds in the strongest storms. The threat timeframe is after noon today lasting through early evening. Key items for any strong to severe thunderstorm potential is that the impulse in the atmosphere tracks into Southern New England at the time of peak heating as currently expected and that the impulse coupled with high instability can overcome weak winds aloft for strong to possibly isolated severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by Noon today. This will be the last coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 7/7/16 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible across much of interior Southern New England from midday through early evening Thursday. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..Threat will be contingent on a trigger in the atmosphere to set off high instability induced from intense heat and humidity over the area and the ability of the high instability over the area to overcome what is currently expected to be weak levels of wind shear in the atmosphere..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is possible as early as 11 AM Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday July 1st, 2016 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all..

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely particularly across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but also across much of Southern New England late this afternoon through tonight. Strong to Damaging winds, large hail, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out particularly in Western New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center, SPC, has placed portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather with a marginal risk of severe weather through much of Southern New England to the Cape Cod Canal. Threat timeframe is between 500 PM Friday Evening through 100 AM Saturday Morning..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 500 PM today at the latest lasting through early Saturday Morning..

The potential exists for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across portions of Southern New England later this afternoon into the early overnight hours. The best chance for severe weather is across Western Massachusetts into Northern Connecticut but could affect much of Southern New England to the Cape Cod Canal. The headlines of this message reflect the current thinking.

The key questions for the potential for severe weather is how much instability develops and can that level of instability be maintained passed peak heating hours as well as the timing of stronger wind shear, favorable jet dynamics, and cooling of air aloft in the upper levels of the atmosphere. If instability is maintained through the evening and early overnight hours with better jet dynamics and cooling aloft, that would favor more numerous strong to severe thunderstorms and the potential for an isolated tornado particularly in Western New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 500 PM today lasting through early Saturday Morning. This will be the only message on today’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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