Special Announcement: Additional Fall 2016 SKYWARN Classes

Hello to all…

There have been 2 additional SKYWARN Classes schedules for the Fall season. Both will be taught by an Amateur Radio Coordinator. Details on the class can be seen via the following link:

WX1BOX SKYWARN Training Class Schedule link:
http://www.wx1box.org/node/36

Detailed Schedule info listed below:

Thursday September 29th, 2016 – 7-10 PM:
Whitman Police Department
20 Essex Street
Whitman, MA
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Registration: Pre-registration required. Email Rob Macedo-KD1CY at rmacedo@rcn.com

Saturday October 22nd, 2016 – 10 AM-1 PM:
Charlestown Police Department – Emergency Operations Center (EOC) room.
4901 Old Post Road
Charlestown, RI
Taught by: Amateur Radio Coordinator
Registration: Pre-registration required. Email Rob Macedo-KD1CY at rmacedo@rcn.com

These classes will also show on weather.gov/boston schedule link over the next several days. Please spread the word on these additional Fall 2016 SKYWARN Classes.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday 9/14/16 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely today as a brief return to heat and humidity will occur ahead of a strong cold front which will bring Fall weather into the region. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall potentially leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with hail as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued a Marginal risk of severe weather for much of Southern New England. Timeframe for potential severe weather is between 2-8 PM EDT..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM EDT..

Heat and humidity will return on Wednesday for one day ahead of a strong cold front that will swing through the region. Model forecasts are not much different than they were last night. Wind shear profiles will be sufficient of severe weather. Instability and moisture levels maybe sufficient to allow for an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm episode. This is a typical high wind shear, low instability environment typical of the region transitioning to the fall weather season. The extent of any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development will be the level of moisture and instability that develops as the cold front approaches to tap into the strong wind shear provided by the front. SPC has continued a marginal risk for severe weather for much of Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 2 PM EDT Wednesday. This will be the last coordination message on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 9/14/16 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible tomorrow as a brief return to heat and humidity will occur ahead of a strong cold front which will bring Fall weather into the region. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall potentially leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with hail as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather. Timeframe for potential severe weather is between 2-8 PM EDT..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..

Heat and humidity will return on Wednesday for one day ahead of a strong cold front that will swing through the region. Wind shear profiles will be sufficient of severe weather. Instability and moisture levels maybe sufficient to allow for an isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm episode. This is a typical high wind shear, low instability environment typical of the region transitioning to the fall weather season. The extent of any isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development will be the level of moisture and instability that develops as the cold front approaches with the strong wind shear provided by the front. SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather for portions of Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2016/day2otlk_20160913_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Sunday September 11th 2016 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible to likely today across much of Southern New England as a cold front sweeps through the area from west to east between now and 3 PM. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and brief urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. Wind Damage has already occurred in parts of Berkshire County Massachusetts from this line..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will occur for these strong to severe thunderstorms. Ops at NWS Taunton will be possible and could occur at anytime as the line moves through the area. This will be the only coordination message concerning this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook and SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion..

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Mesoscale Convective Discussion:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1680.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Coordination Message #6 – Tropical Storm Warnings Cancelled

Hello to all…

..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine brought strong to damaging winds and isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages to Southeast Massachusetts, East Coastal Massachusetts to the east of the I-95 corridor, South-Central Rhode Island and Eastern Connecticut. Some beneficial rainfall was received ranging in the 0.10-1.00″ range with isolated higher amounts over Nantucket Island. Beach erosion and spotty coastal flooding occurred in Southeast New England with some boats run aground and knocked off moorings in more open water ways. Conditions were similar to some of our Fall or Spring nor’easter type systems..
..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine made its slow northward and northwestward movement and is now tracking slowly westward as it makes a loop to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the mid-atlantic states. Hermine is still expected to linger to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast through Thursday Morning before moving away from the region or even dissipating later Thursday into Friday Morning..
..The Tropical Storm Warning for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island has been cancelled. The strong to damaging wind threat has ended. Additional rainfall between 0.10-1″ is possible in Southeast New England. Any additional rainfall will be beneficial in nature..
..A High Surf Advisory is in effect for East and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands through 6 PM Tuesday. A high surf advisory could continue for the next couple days and remain a concern along with rip currents through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches through Thursday..
..Any post storm damage photos or coast line photos from Monday can be sent as a reply to this message, sent via our WX1BOX Facebook or Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org and the pictures and information will be shared with local and state emergency management, non-governmental organizations and the media with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator for the information. Thanks to all who provided damage reports and criteria spotting information for Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine during the day on Monday..
..This will be the last Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Coordination Message and last message regarding the continued high surf and rip current threat that will likely continue through Thursday of this week. A Hermine storm summary message will be posted once issued by NWS Taunton. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report, Public Information Statement, WX1BOX Facebook Album (which will be updated later today), Final Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement, High Surf Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and NHC Advisory information on Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1609060239.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1609060308.nous41.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/reports_9_5_16_hermine.txt

NWS Taunton WX1BOX Facebook Album for Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine:
https://www.facebook.com/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1283809994986349

NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory/Rip Current Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Coordination Message #5 – Monday 9/5/16-Tuesday 9/6/16 Possible Storm Impacts

Hello to all…

..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine has now started its slow movement northward and is likely to start making its eventually turn northwestward at a slow speed later today and tonight with the possibility for slight intensification through this evening followed by slow weakening later Monday evening through Tuesday and more rapid weakening mid-week. Hermine is still expected to linger to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast for several days from now to Wednesday moving away from the region or even dissipating on Thursday..
..A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island. This is for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with the possibility of wind gusts to 50-55 MPH and the potential for beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. The winds of this magnitude are expected to be strongest from 10 AM-8 PM Monday. There will then be a lull in the winds overnight Monday with another round of strong winds possible on Tuesday. These winds will be capable of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The strongest wind and coastal flooding/beach erosion impacts are expected to be confined to Southeast Coastal New England at this time but could change if the storm system comes further north than expected. If the storm is further south than expected, the wind and coastal flood impacts would be less. There remains a higher than normal level of uncertainty on the track of Hermine given Hermine’s continued movement east-northeast and then the slow and erratic motion expected tonight through mid-next week though confidence was high enough to upgrade to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Southeast Coastal New England region..
..Currently rainfall of 1-2″ is expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area between Monday and Tuesday. These rains should be beneficial and any flooding would be confined to urban and poor drainage area or if any isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours were to occur..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern tonight through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend through Thursday of this coming week. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..Between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor Hermine’s impacts for wind, rain and coastal flood conditions in the Tropical Storm Warning area. SKYWARN Activation in some form may also be needed Tuesday..

Since the last coordination message Sunday Evening, confidence levels in storm impacts remain about the same as they were last night. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands (Watch Hill Rhode Island through Sagamore Beach Massachusetts including the islands) for those conditions. The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a round of strong to damaging winds in the 10 AM-8 PM Monday timeframe with a second round possible on Tuesday along with pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. In addition, 1-2″ of rain are possible in the tropical storm warning area between Monday and Tuesday. There is still higher than normal uncertainty given Hermine has slowed down and will move erratically for several days. Track guidance still has a wide spread among them with two models closest to Southern New England. Other models are now bringing the system near or to the south of one of the closer model tracks to the south of Nantucket. The overall guidance trend has been a bit further west overnight. If the track remains further south and east of the area, there will be less impact in southeast coastal New England. If the track is further north and closer to Southern New England, impacts will be greater. Therefore, its important to closely monitor the progress of Hermine over the next several days.

Regarding the winds, between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored.

At this time, those in the Tropical Storm Warning area should look at some level of preparations similar to that for a nor’easter system that could cause isolated power outages and it cannot hurt to prepare for something larger if your time and resources allow. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor Hermine’s impacts for wind, rain and coastal flood conditions in the Tropical Storm Warning area. SKYWARN Activation in some form may also be needed Tuesday. Depending on storm evolution, another coordination message may be posted either by by 1130 PM Monday Evening or 900 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map, Area Forecast Discussion and tropical system preparedness information as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:

NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton – Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/tropical

NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Coordination Message #4 – Late Sunday Night 9/4/16-Tuesday 9/6/16 Possible Storm Impacts

Hello to all…

..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine has slowed its east-northeast progression Sunday and is likely to start making its eventually turn and slow movement northward and northwestward later today and tonight with the possibility for slight intensification tonight into Monday followed by slow weakening later Monday evening through mid-week. Hermine is still expected to linger to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast for several days from now to Wednesday moving away from the region on Thursday..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island. This is for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with the possibility of wind gusts to 50-55 MPH and the potential for beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. The winds of this magnitude are expected for the first wave late tonight after midnight through the mid to late afternoon Monday timeframe. There will then be a lull in the winds with another round of strong winds are possible on Tuesday. These winds will be capable of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The strongest wind and coastal flooding/beach erosion impacts are expected to be confined to Southeast Coastal New England at this time but could change if the storm system comes further north than expected. If the storm is further south than expected, the wind and coastal flood impacts would be less. There remains a higher than normal level of uncertainty on the track of Hermine given Hermine’s continued movement east-northeast and then the slow and erratic motion expected tonight through mid-next week though confidence was high enough to upgrade to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Southeast Coastal New England region..
..Currently rainfall of 1-2″ is expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area between Monday and Tuesday. These rains should be beneficial and any flooding would be confined to urban and poor drainage area or if any isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours were to occur..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern tonight through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend through Thursday of this coming week. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..Between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late tonight through Monday Afternoon to monitor wind, rain and coastal flood conditions in the Tropical Storm Warning area. SKYWARN Activation in some form may also be needed Tuesday..

Since the last coordination message Sunday Morning, confidence levels in storm impacts remain about the same as they were this morning. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands (Watch Hill Rhode Island through Sagamore Beach Massachusetts including the islands) for those conditions. The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a round of strong to damaging winds with a bit later timing, in the late tonight into Monday afternoon timeframe with a second round possible on Tuesday along with pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. In addition, 1-2″ of rain are possible in the tropical storm warning area between Monday and Tuesday. There is still higher than normal uncertainty given Hermine will slow down and move erratically for several days. Track guidance still has a wide spread among them with two models closest to Southern New England. Other models are now bringing the system near or to the south of one of the closer model tracks to the south of Nantucket with none of the models indicating a direct hit to the mid-atlantic region. The overall guidance trend has been a bit further north and hasn’t moved much further east. If the track remains further south and east of the area, there will be less impact in southeast coastal New England. If the track is further north and closer to Southern New England, impacts will be greater. Therefore, its important to closely monitor the progress of Hermine over the next several days.

Regarding the winds, between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored.

At this time, those in the Tropical Storm Warning area should look at some level of preparations similar to that for a nor’easter system that could cause isolated power outages and it cannot hurt to prepare for something larger if your time and resources allow. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely late tonight through Monday Afternoon to monitor wind, rain and coastal flood conditions in the Tropical Storm Warning area. SKYWARN Activation in some form may also be needed Tuesday. Depending on storm evolution, another coordination message may be posted either by 830 AM Monday Morning or by 1000 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map, Area Forecast Discussion and tropical system preparedness information as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:

NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton – Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/tropical

NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more

Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Coordination Message #3 – Sunday 9/4/16-Tuesday 9/6/16 Possible Storm Impacts

Hello to all…

..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine continues to move east-northeast this Sunday Morning and will eventually slow and move more northward and northwestward later today and tonight and intensify tonight into Monday. Hermine is still expected to linger to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast for several days from Sunday to Wednesday moving away from the region on Thursday..
..A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island. This is for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with the possibility of wind gusts to 50-55 MPH and the potential for beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. The winds of this magnitude are expected for the first wave are expected to be a bit later starting early Sunday Evening over the islands and late tonight along Southeast Coastal New England lasting through the early to mid afternoon Monday timeframe. There will then be a lull in the winds with another round of strong winds are possible on Tuesday. These winds will be capable of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The strongest wind and coastal flooding/beach erosion impacts are expected to be confined to Southeast Coastal New England at this time but could change if the storm system comes further north than expected. If the storm is further south than expected, the wind and coastal flood impacts would be less. There remains a higher than normal level of uncertainty on the track of Hermine given Hermine’s continued movement east-northeast and then the slow and erratic motion expected as we get into later Sunday through mid-next week though confidence was high enough to issue and continue a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southeast Coastal New England region..
..Currently rainfall of 1-2″ is expected in the Tropical Storm Watch area. These rains should be beneficial and any flooding would be confined to urban and poor drainage area or if any isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours were to occur..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern this weekend through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend through Thursday of this coming week. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..Between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely early Sunday Evening through Monday Afternoon and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. SKYWARN Activation may also be needed Tuesday. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time and will be reevaluated this Sunday Afternoon..

Since the last coordination message Saturday Afternoon, confidence levels in storm impacts remain about the same as they were yesterday. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for those conditions. The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a round of strong to damaging winds with a bit later timing, in the early Sunday Evening into Monday afternoon with a second round possible on Tuesday along with pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. In addition, 1-2″ of rain are possible in the tropical storm watch area. There is still higher than normal uncertainty given Hermine will slow down and move erratically for several days. Track guidance still has a very wide spread among them with the Euro closest to Southern New England and other models trying to send the system near or even to the coast of Southern New Jersey and/or Delaware. The overall guidance trend has been a bit further east with the euro both north and east. If the track remains further south and east of the area, there will be less impact in southeast coastal New England. If the track is further north and closer to Southern New England, impacts will be greater. Therefore, its important to closely monitor the progress of Hermine over the next several days.

Regarding the winds, between Hermine and the high pressure area to the north, some strong winds will be possible along the I-95 corridor and to the east of I-95 with a secondary concern over the Connecticut River Valley if some sun is able to break through the clouds and mix the strong winds down to the surface. Trees weakened by the drought may have further stress because of these winds and this potential will be monitored.

At this time, those in the Tropical Storm Watch area should look at some level of preparations similar to that for a nor’easter system that could cause isolated power outages and it cannot hurt to prepare for something larger if your time and resources allow. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period.

SKYWARN Activation in some form is likely early Sunday Evening through Monday Afternoon and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. SKYWARN Activation may also be needed Tuesday. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time and will be reevaluated this Sunday Afternoon. Another coordination message will be posted between 3 PM and 8 PM pending updated forecast information. Below is the NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map, Area Forecast Discussion and tropical system preparedness information as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:

NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton – Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/tropical

NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Coordination Message #2 – Sunday 9/4/16-Tuesday 9/6/16 Possible Storm Impacts

Hello to all…

..Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine has reemerged off the coast of North Carolina and will be lingering to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the Mid-Atlantic Coast for several days from Sunday to Wednesday moving away from the region on Thursday..
..A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands – from Sagamore Beach Massachusetts Through Watch Hill Rhode Island. This is for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with the possibility of wind gusts to 50-55 MPH and the potential for beach erosion and pockets of minor coastal flooding. The winds of this magnitude are expected for the first wave in the late Sunday Afternoon through Monday Morning timeframe. There will then be a lull in the winds with another round of strong to damaging winds are possible on Tuesday. These winds will be capable of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..The strongest wind and coastal flooding/beach erosion impacts are expected to be confined to Southeast Coastal New England at this time but could change if the storm system comes further north than expected. If the storm is further south than expected, the wind and coastal flood impacts would be less. There remains a higher than normal level of uncertainty on the track of Hermine given the slow and erratic motion expected as we get into Sunday through mid-next week though confidence was high enough to issue a Tropical Storm Watch for the Southeast Coastal New England region..
..Currently rainfall of 1-2″ is expected in the Tropical Storm Watch area. These rains should be beneficial and any flooding would be confined to urban and poor drainage area or if any isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours were to occur..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern this weekend through Thursday of this week along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend through Thursday of this coming week. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible late Sunday Afternoon through Monday Morning and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time after coordination with NWS Taunton and will be reevaluated Sunday Morning..

Since the last coordination message Friday Morning, confidence levels have increased a bit regarding the potential for tropical storm force conditions across Southeast Coastal New England. A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for South Coastal Rhode Island and South Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for those conditions. The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a round of strong to damaging winds late Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning with a second round possible on Tuesday along with pockets of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion. In addition, 1-2″ of rain are possible in the tropical storm watch area. While confidence levels have increased a bit regarding the potential for tropical storm force conditions in southeast coastal New England, there is still higher than normal uncertainty given Hermine will slow down and move erratically for several days. If the track remains further south, there will be less impact in southeast coastal New England. If the track is further north and closer to Southern New England, impacts will be greater. Therefore, its important to closely monitor the progress of Hermine over the next several days.

At this time, those in the Tropical Storm Watch area should look at some level of preparations similar to that for a nor’easter system that could cause isolated power outages and it cannot hurt to prepare for something larger if your time and resources allow. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period.

SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible late Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are still too early to determine at this time after coordination with NWS Taunton and will be reevaluated Sunday Morning. Another coordination message will either be posted by 1130 PM Saturday Evening or Noon Sunday depending on updated forecast information. Below is the NWS Taunton Hurricane Local Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map, Area Forecast Discussion and tropical system preparedness information as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:

NWS Taunton Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Local Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton – Hermine Tropical Graphic Threat Map:
http://www.weather.gov/box/tropical

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Post Tropical Cyclone Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Tropical Storm Hermine Coordination Message #1 – Sunday 9/4/16-Monday 9/5/16 Possible Storm Impacts

Hello to all…

..Tropical Storm Hermine made landfall as a Category-1 hurricane early Friday Morning in the St Marks Florida area. Hermine, will track up the Southeast US coast and reemerge of the North Carolina coast and reintensify into either a strong post tropical system or possibly keep or regain tropical characteristics.
..Hermine is expected to stall offshore to the south of Southern New England and to the east of the mid-atlantic states for several days. Rain and wind threats are possible especially in southern and southeast portions of Southern New England but extent of those threats is very uncertain and may depend on where Hermine goes stationary or how close to the coast her ultimate track is..
..The National Hurricane Center is advising that interests along the Northeast United States coast should monitor the progress of this system prompting the start of coordination messages on Hermine..
..High surf and rip currents will be a concern this weekend along coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for those headed to area beaches for the Labor Day weekend. This part of the impact of Hermine is quite certain with high confidence..
..SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible Sunday and Monday and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are too early to determine at this time..

With Hermine tracking through the Southeast United States and the National Hurricane Center advising interests in the Northeast to monitor the progress of Hermine, coordination messages for this system have started. Exact impacts are very uncertain. Hermine is expected to emerge off the North Carolina coast and then stall south of Southern New England coast and east of the Mid-Atlantic coast. Where Hermine stalls and the intensity and characteristics of Hermine will ultimately determine impacts particularly to southern and southeast portions of Southern New England. One item that is very certain is that coastal Southern New England will experience high surf and rip currents on coastal area beaches and extreme caution is advised for beachgoers. There will be some potential for rain and wind impacts but the extent is uncertain and could range from little to no rain and sub-criteria winds to strong to damaging winds and heavier rainfall. Coastal impacts could range from minor beach erosion to a more widespread minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding. Future model runs and the characteristics, intensity and track of Hermine will determine these impacts with greater confidence. The main impacts right now appear to be Sunday into Monday but given the stalling track, there could be some impacts beyond this timeframe.

At this time, SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should monitor the progress of Hermine and begin thinking about some low level of preparations. With the holiday weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Hermine during this period. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Hermine are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system gets close or impacts the region.

SKYWARN Activation in some form is possible Sunday and Monday and Ops at NWS Taunton are possible during some portion of this timeframe. Specifics of possible activation are too early to determine at this time. Another coordination message will either be posted by 1130 PM Friday Evening or 1000 AM Saturday Morning depending on updated forecast information. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory and Information graphics link:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Tropical Storm Hermine Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#HERMINE

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Read more