Storm Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 10/27/16 through Friday Morning 10/28/16 Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Strong Storm system will bring a variety of weather to the region with strong to damaging winds in the coastal areas..
..The storm system will bring snow changing to rain in Western Massachusetts, North-Central Connecticut and North-Central Massachusetts with potential snow accumulation largely in grassy areas of 1-3″ in the higher elevations above 1000 feet and 1″ or less in grassy areas in the lower elevations before snow changes to rain. Rain could be heavy at times in portions of Southern New England..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect from 1 to 10 AM EDT Friday Morning for East Coastal and Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-activation will monitor storm conditions in the region for the snow in the higher elevations changing to rain, and any heavy rainfall and flooding issues and wind issues in the region. This will likely be the last coordination message on this storm system unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Wind Advisory statement, and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 10/27/16 through Early Friday Morning 10/28/16 Storm Potential

Hello to all..

..Strong Storm System to affect Southern New England Thursday into early Friday Morning. The storm system could bring a small snow accumulation over Western and North-Central Massachusetts particularly in higher elevations and Hartford and Tolland County Connecticut particularly at the higher elevations before the precipitation changes to rain. Rain, heavy at times, will occur across Southern New England later Thursday afternoon through early Friday Morning..
..Strong to damaging winds are possible on Cape Cod and the Islands and possibly other parts of East and South Coastal New England during Thursday evening and into the overnight..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system for snow and rain totals, precipitation type changeover and strong to damaging wind potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 900 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Rainfall Saturday and Strong Wind Potential Saturday Evening into Sunday

Hello to all…

..Friday Evening brought a significant flash flood event to portions of Central and Eastern New England that resulted in a short fused upgrade to Amateur Radio Ops at NWS Taunton. Particularly hard hit were portions of Central Worcester County including the city of Worcester. Any flash flood pictures and videos can be sent to pics@nsradio.org and they will be sent to media, emergency management, the National Weather Service and other organizations with credit given to the spotter unless otherwise indicated..
..Another round of rainfall today for the region with some localized heavier amounts though not as significant as what occurred Friday Evening in Central and Eastern New England will give way to cooler conditions and strong to damaging winds..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect for the entire NWS Taunton Coverage Area starting at 8 PM Saturday Evening for the entire region for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. The advisory end time is 2 PM for the entire coverage area except for Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties where the advisory end time is 6 PM. Winds of this magnitude could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the rainfall conditions today and the strong wind conditions tonight into Sunday. This will likely be the only coordination message for this event unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Local Storm Report and Public Information Statement from yesterday’s significant flash flood event and the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report – Friday 10/21/16 Flash Flood event:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1610220434.nwus51.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Friday 10/21/16 Rainfall Reports:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Friday Afternoon/Evening Heavy Rainfall Potential/Saturday late PM/Evening Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all..

..Widespread rainfall today with a few locations receiving heavier downpours and the possibility for urban and poor drainage flooding over areas that get the heaviest rainfall later Friday Afternoon into Friday Night. On Saturday, rainfall and showers will diminish but a period of strong to damaging winds late Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night may result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and the potential for Wind Advisories to be posted..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor storm conditions later today and tonight on the rainfall and later Saturday Afternoon and Evening on the strong wind potential. An updated coordination message will be posted either by 1130 PM Friday evening or 9 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Monday 10/10/16 Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all..

..Beneficial rainfall over the region Sunday but strong to damaging winds over Cape Cod and the Islands and nearby coastal areas..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect through Noon for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard and for Nantucket Island through 200 PM for sustained winds of 20-35 MPH with wind gusts to 50-55 MPH. Coastal areas near the Wind Advisory may see wind gusts up to 45 MPH. These winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong to damaging wind conditions in the region. This will likely be the only coordination message unless a significant change to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Hurricane Matthew Coordination Message #2

Hello to all…

..Hurricane Matthew causing significant damage and flooding in Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas after causing severe damage in portions of Haiti, particularly southern and western areas and portions of the Dominican Republic in southern areas. Next in line for a potential significant strike are portions of eastern Florida, and Southeast Georgia possibly extending into South Carolina between Thursday and Saturday. Amateur Radio hurricane nets will be active for the next several days relaying reports on conditions from Hurricane Matthew along his path..
..Hurricane Matthew’s impacts on Southern New England are no longer expected at least through the next 5 days and the Columbus Day Weekend no longer looks to be directly impacted by Matthew though some rain may occur over part of the weekend relating to a front moving through the region. Models have shifted the track of Matthew well to the south of the region at least through the next 5 day period..
..No SKYWARN Activation in association with Hurricane Matthew is expected in Southern New England through Monday and this will be the last coordination message on Hurricane Matthew unless a potential threat to Southern New England redevelops..

Hurricane Matthew has caused significant damage and flooding in Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas and across southwest and southern portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. From there, impacts to Florida, Southeast Georgia and possibly extending into South Carolina between Thursday and Saturday with Matthew potentially reintensifying to category-IV intensity. The track of Hurricane Matthew and how close it gets to the Southeast US coast will determine whether hurricane force conditions occur over these coastal areas or stay just offshore. At this time, its anticipated for hurricane force conditions to reach at least portions of the Southeast US coast especially in the Hurricane Warning area and potentially in the Hurricane Watch areas. Amateur Radio hurricane nets will be active over the next several days. Links to their web sites follow below:

Hurricane Watch Net – HWN:
http://www.hwn.org

VoIP Hurricane Net – VoIPWXNet:
http://www.voipwx.net

Over the past several model cycles, the threat for Southern New England has diminished greatly especially over the 5 day period. Models now depict after a front moves through the region that will not be strong enough to bring Matthew northward or northeastward, blocking high pressure will develop keeping Matthew contained along and off of the Southeast US coast over this period. With the reduced risk to Southern New England, this will likely be the last coordination message on Hurricane Matthew from a Southern New England perspective unless a potential threat for Matthew materializes again.

We do encourage SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators who know other Amateur Radio Operators, SKYWARN Spotters or friends and family from the affected areas of Hurricane Matthew from the east coast of Florida through Southeast Georgia and South Carolina to gather reports, pictures and videos from this area. This information can be shared with the National Hurricane Center, media outlets and the local NWS Forecast offices of their given areas as needed. This information and pictures can be sent in as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via pics@nsradio.org.

While Hurricane Matthew’s threat at least through the 5 day period no longer exists, we encourage folks to continue to the monitor the track of Hurricane Matthew. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Matthew Advisory and Information graphics link and the NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Matthew Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#MATTHEW

NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt

This will be the last coordination message on Hurricane Matthew from a Southern New England perspective unless a threat from Matthew for Southern New England redevelops.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Hurricane Matthew Coordination Message #1

Hello to all…

..Hurricane Matthew causing significant damage and flooding in portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Eastern Cuba and the Bahamas are next in line for a potential significant strike followed by the potential for tropical storm to possibly hurricane force conditions over parts of the Southeast United States coast from Florida to North Carolina later this week. Amateur Radio hurricane nets will be active for the next several days relaying reports on conditions from Hurricane Matthew along his path..
..Hurricane Matthew’s impacts on Southern New England remain highly uncertain with impacts ranging from little to no significant direct impact to a direct strike on the region. We are still 5 to 6 days from any impacts from Hurricane Matthew with any impacts to the region not expected until the Columbus Day weekend. Interests in Southern New England should begin monitoring the progress of Matthew now that he is entering the Bahama Island region. Keep your situational awareness high by monitoring National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center forecasts and information, these coordination messages, satellite and radar imagery on Hurricane Matthew and conventional media outlets..
..Any SKYWARN Activation status for the Columbus Day Weekend will be determined as we get closer to this weekend. ARES/RACES groups should seek guidance from local leadership and monitor the progress of Hurricane Matthew..

Hurricane Matthew has caused significant damage across portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic and is taking aim on Eastern Cuba and the Bahama islands for tonight into Wednesday. From there, impacts to Florida could occur on Thursday and then to South and North Carolina on Friday into Saturday. It is not clear at this time how close Matthew will get to the Southeast US coast. In the longer range, it remains uncertain how close Matthew will get to the mid-atlantic and Northeast United States coast. Amateur Radio hurricane nets will be active over the next several days. Links to their web sites follow below:

Hurricane Watch Net – HWN:
http://www.hwn.org

VoIP Hurricane Net – VoIPWXNet:
http://www.voipwx.net

Model guidance remains divergent with a wide spread and varying solutions on what occurs with Matthew as he attempts to make his way up the US East coast. In addition, model solutions have had a wide run to run variance especially regarding the longer range period between 4-6 days and how close Matthew gets to Southern New England. It is also not clear what kind of intensity Matthew will have depending on any land interaction as it approaches the Southeast US coast. It is premature to say with any precision how close Matthew will get to the region and how strong it would be. There is slightly higher confidence in the potential for beneficial rainfall between the trough that approaches the region and its potentially ability to tap the tropical moisture feed from Matthew for this weekend. Even there though, its quite difficult to determine what rainfall amounts will be this far out in advance. As we get closer to this weekend and Matthew tracks through the Bahamas and towards the Southeast US coast, confidence should increase on how close Matthew gets to the region and on what impacts, direct or indirect, Matthew will have on the region.

At this time, SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators should monitor the progress of Matthew and begin thinking about some low level of preparations. With the holiday weekend coming up this weekend and many people having plans, keep an eye on the weather and the progress of Matthew during this period. It can never hurt to make some level of preparations. If the impacts from Matthew are minimal, you will be prepared in case another tropical system or major winter system as we get into the winter season gets close or impacts the region.

Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and Area Forecast Discussion as well as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Matthew Advisory and Information graphics link and the NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Area Forecast Discussion:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Matthew Advisory Information and Infographics:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#MATTHEW

NWS Taunton Hurricane Preparedness Information and Safety Tips:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_hurricane_season_start_2016.txt

The next coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Wednesday Evening.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter Fall 2016 Edition – SNE WX Conference Saturday 10/29/16 & Off Topic Public Service Event Support Request

Hello to all..

There are a couple of SKYWARN and weather related items that we would like to announce and request on an off topic basis for Amateur Radio Operator support for a public service event.

The first item is that the Fall 2016 Edition of the Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter is now available. This can be seen at the following links:

NWS Taunton Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter Fall 2016 Edition:
http://www.weather.gov/media/box/officePrograms/prevailing_winds/2016_10_prevailing_winds.pdf

NWS Taunton Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletter Fall 2016 Edition via WX1BOX Home Page:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/Iss6vol2_2016_10_prevailing_winds.pdf

Also, there is an archive of Prevailing Winds SKYWARN Newsletters on the WX1BOX Home Page via the following link:
http://www.wx1box.org/node/3288

The Southern New England Weather Conference will take place Saturday October 29th, 2016. The conference will be held at the Johnson & Wales Radisson next to TF Green Airport in Warwick, Rhode Island. Some of the topics that will be covered in 2016 include:

-The 25th Anniversary of Hurricane Bob and the Perfect Storm, including a presentation from John Spillane (pictured top right), USAF Pararescueman who survived at sea after his rescue helicopter was forced to ditch while attempting a rescue.
-A look at Canada’s warning and response system to Hurricanes and Blizzards
-How Weather and Measurement impacts everything from self-driving vehicles to DeflateGate
-El Nino and how it impacted New England this past winter and spring

The tentative agenda for the Southern New England Weather Conference can be seen via the following link:
http://www.sneweatherconf.org/2016Agenda.shtml

Registration Fees:
Please note that registration will be stopped after 230 registrants!

Student/Teacher Early and Regular Registration (Today – Oct 19): $89
Regular Registration (Sept 15 – Oct 19): $99
Late Registration (Oct 20 – Oct 29 – at the conference site): $109 (on-line registration will not be available after Oct 19.)
Student/Teacher Late Registration (Oct 25): $99 (same rules as above)

To register by phone, contact the Blue Hill Observatory at 617-696-0562. Complete registration information can be seen via the following link:
http://www.sneweatherconf.org/confregform.cfm

We hope to see many of you at the 2016 Southern New England Weather Conference!

Finally, the off topic Public Service Event request is for Amateur Radio Operators to support the Ashland Half Marathon in Ashland, Mass. Interested participants can contact K1MGY-Mark Richards at kmalittl1@gmail.com as Mark is organizing Amateur Radio communications for this public service event. Mark also supports SKYWARN on the 146.955-Westford repeater and we have added this request for Amateur Radio support to this announcement given Mark’s strong support of the SKYWARN program. We hope a few additional Amateur Radio Operators can assist with this event for this year.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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