Storm Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 12/29/16-Friday Morning 12/30/16 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Nor’easter will bring significant snowfall to interior Southern New England with the possibility of the snow being heavy and wet and clinging to tree and power lines with isolated to scattered tree and power line damage and isolated power outages possible in this area. As the nor’easter rapidly intensifies, strong to damaging winds are possible in Eastern New England particularly at the coast later Thursday Evening into Friday with isolated pocket of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages possible in those areas..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 9 AM Thursday to 10 AM Friday for 8-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with wind gusts to around 40-45 MPH could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester, Central Middlesex and has been expanded to Western Essex counties of Massachusetts from Thursday Morning to Friday Morning for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with wind gusts to around 40-45 MPH could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. There remains some uncertainty on the snow amounts and how much rain occurs so the Winter Storm Watch has not been converted to a warning or advisory as yet..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut for 2-4″ of snow and sleet. This area has the most uncertainty in terms of mixed precipitation and if the heaviest precipitation occurs in this area or is northeast of this area..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area away from the coast could see some snow accumulation. This will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the storm and its ability to draw cold air into the region. At the coast, given warm water temperatures, precipitation is likely to be mostly rain perhaps changing to a short period of snow before ending..
..Wind Advisories will likely be needed for East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and possibly extending into some areas of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island for strong winds later Thursday Night into Friday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Thursday. Exact timeframe of activation and whether it extends into a portion of the overnight hours Thursday Night will depend on the timing and eventual intensity of the storm as it passes through Southern New England..

A nor’easter is expected to significantly effect Southern New England Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening. The headlines depict the latest thinking with portions of Northern and Western Massachusetts upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings and an expansion of the Winter Storm Watch into Western Essex county Massachusetts. Key factors for this storm and eventual snow amounts and areas impacted most significantly and wind intensity near and around the coast, include the following:

1.) Where the intensification occurs and how rapid. This is currently forecast to be close enough to Southern New England where the impacts as stated in the headlines are likely. This intensification is also likely to control how quickly cold air works into the region and determine how quickly areas that have rain changeover to snow as the storm system draws colder air from the northwest into the region.
2.) The eventual track of the storm and how close to Southern New England it gets. A closer track means less snow and more rain in eastern areas and the potential for a dry slot to work into western areas that would remain snow or possibly a mix of snow and sleet towards North-Central Connecticut. A track further offshore could bring heavier snow a bit further east but still away from the coast due to warm water temperatures.
3.) How much cooling occurs and if temperatures hover around freezing. This will determine the consistency of the snow, how wet it is and the potential damage from heavy wet snow accumulation.
4.) The intensification process and how rapid it is will also control the potential for strong to damaging winds along East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands and areas of interior Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. At this time, the potential is there for wind gusts of 40-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Thursday. Exact timeframe of activation and whether it extends into a portion of the overnight hours Thursday Night will depend on the timing and eventual intensity of the storm as it passes through Southern New England. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Nor’easter will bring significant snowfall to interior Southern New England with the possibility of the snow being heavy and wet and clinging to tree and power lines with isolated to scattered tree and power line damage and isolated power outages possible in this area. As the nor’easter rapidly intensifies, strong to damaging winds are possible in Eastern New England particularly at the coast later Thursday Evening into Friday with isolated pocket of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages possible in those areas..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Franklin, Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts from 9 AM Thursday to 10 AM Friday for 8-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with wind gusts to around 40-45 MPH could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester, Central Middlesex and has been expanded to Western Essex counties of Massachusetts from Thursday Morning to Friday Morning for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. The snow will be heavy and wet and coupled with wind gusts to around 40-45 MPH could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. There remains some uncertainty on the snow amounts and how much rain occurs so the Winter Storm Watch has not been converted to a warning or advisory as yet..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut for 2-4″ of snow and sleet. This area has the most uncertainty in terms of mixed precipitation and if the heaviest precipitation occurs in this area or is northeast of this area..
..Areas outside of the Winter Storm Watch area away from the coast could see some snow accumulation. This will depend on the track, speed and intensity of the storm and its ability to draw cold air into the region. At the coast, given warm water temperatures, precipitation is likely to be mostly rain perhaps changing to a short period of snow before ending..
..Wind Advisories will likely be needed for East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and possibly extending into some areas of Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island for strong winds later Thursday Night into Friday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Thursday. Exact timeframe of activation and whether it extends into a portion of the overnight hours Thursday Night will depend on the timing and eventual intensity of the storm as it passes through Southern New England..

A nor’easter is expected to significantly effect Southern New England Thursday Morning through Thursday Evening. The headlines depict the latest thinking with portions of Northern and Western Massachusetts upgraded to Winter Storm Warnings and an expansion of the Winter Storm Watch into Western Essex county Massachusetts. Key factors for this storm and eventual snow amounts and areas impacted most significantly and wind intensity near and around the coast, include the following:

1.) Where the intensification occurs and how rapid. This is currently forecast to be close enough to Southern New England where the impacts as stated in the headlines are likely. This intensification is also likely to control how quickly cold air works into the region and determine how quickly areas that have rain changeover to snow as the storm system draws colder air from the northwest into the region.
2.) The eventual track of the storm and how close to Southern New England it gets. A closer track means less snow and more rain in eastern areas and the potential for a dry slot to work into western areas that would remain snow or possibly a mix of snow and sleet towards North-Central Connecticut. A track further offshore could bring heavier snow a bit further east but still away from the coast due to warm water temperatures.
3.) How much cooling occurs and if temperatures hover around freezing. This will determine the consistency of the snow, how wet it is and the potential damage from heavy wet snow accumulation.
4.) The intensification process and how rapid it is will also control the potential for strong to damaging winds along East and South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands and areas of interior Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. At this time, the potential is there for wind gusts of 40-50 MPH with isolated higher gusts.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is likely on Thursday. Exact timeframe of activation and whether it extends into a portion of the overnight hours Thursday Night will depend on the timing and eventual intensity of the storm as it passes through Southern New England. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Leave a Reply