Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 3/1/17 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Unseasonably warm weather returns with a threat of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with Damaging Winds as the primary threat while there is also a secondary threat for other forms of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest Massachusetts and Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather while a marginal risk for severe weather exists for the remainder of Southern New England away from the immediate east and south coasts of the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential..

In a rather unusual weather pattern, the second potential severe weather threat in 5 days is possible over portions of Southern New England. The greatest risk for severe weather is in the SPC defined Slight Risk area and possible extending northward into other parts of Western and Central Massachusetts but all areas as defined in the marginal and slight risk areas have severe weather potential. Key items and factors for this severe weather potential include:

1.) Amount of forcing with the cold front. Some models try and move this forcing both to the north and south of Southern New England leaving the very strong wind shear over the region untapped for potential strong to severe thunderstorm potential.
2.) Amount of instability over the region and whether widespread showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday Morning do not allow for sufficient instability for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Similar to Saturday, this is a low instability but high wind shear environment. There needs to be sufficient instability coupled with the wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. A factor in Saturday’s severe weather was there was forcing, enough instability and very strong wind shear for the right mix of factors to produce severe weather over portions of Western New England. The question for Wednesday’s severe weather potential is whether those same factors align again as they did Saturday or if the favorable components can compensate for the components that are less favorable in this setup.

Similar to Saturday Evening, the main threat will be strong to damaging winds and a low-topped squall line configuration of strong to severe thunderstorms and possibly some hail. There is also the possibility for an isolated tornado if similar to Saturday Evening, a bow configuration forms on the line along the northern edge and allows for wind shear to be tapped with sufficient rotation for a brief isolated tornado. This potential will be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Wednesday Morning on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170228_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Post Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – EF1 Tornado in Goshen and Conway Massachusetts and Severe Weather Events of Saturday Evening 2/25/17

Hello to all…

..First tornado on historical record in the commonwealth of Massachusetts in the month of February. An EF1 Tornado touched down briefly in Goshen, Massachusetts and more significantly and violently in the town of Conway, Massachusetts between 720 and 730 PM Saturday Evening 2/25/17. Many trees and wires were downed, some into homes and buildings with roof and wall damage to several homes in the town of Conway Massachusetts. Additional straight-line wind damage was done in other parts of Franklin County Massachusetts from the severe thunderstorms as they moved through the area and prior to reaching the Goshen and Conway Massachusetts area in Berkshire County Massachusetts..
..Real-time damage reports from SKYWARN Spotters and Amateur Radio Operators helped discern initial damage assessment followed by additional reports and photos during the day with structural damage to homes and 2 barn collapses (one of which reported in near real-time the Saturday Evening the tornado went through Conway Massachusetts). The center of the town of Conway was inaccessible for a time last night from the damage. Coordination by volunteer SKYWARN Spotters/Amateur Radio Operators, local police and fire departments, state emergency management and NWS Taunton meteorologists led to superb situational awareness and disaster intelligence gathering with the volunteer-professional partnership between groups and agencies..
..Any additional damage photos or accounts of this severe weather event and first ever recorded tornado in the commonwealth of Massachusetts in the month of February can be sent as reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds or via the pics@nsradio.org email address. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator for their photo or information  unless otherwise noted. This will likely be the only post severe weather coordination message on this event, unless time allows and a significant change to the event’s historical record is noted. Below is the WX1BOX Facebook Album of photos from various contributors including the NWS Taunton Storm Survey team, the NWS Taunton Public Information Statement and Local Storm Report for this event as well as the raw Amateur Radio log of this severe weather event..

WX1BOX Facebook Album:
https://www.facebook.com/pg/wx1box/photos/?tab=album&album_id=1470398782994135

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – EF1 Tornado in Goshen and Conway Massachusetts
http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_2_25_17_Ef1_tornado_conway_ma.txt

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/lsr_2_25_17_Ef1_tornado_conway_ma.txt

Amateur Radio Raw Log of Reports:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/reports_raw_log_2_25_17.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 2/25/17 Severe Weather Potential & Sunday 2/26/17 Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all…

..The record warmth of the past few days will come to an end as a strong cold front will move through the area bringing convective showers and possibly even isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds as the primary threat particularly in the Connecticut Valley Region of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of this area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Just to the west, a slight risk of severe weather covers much of Eastern New York, Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey through the mid-atlantic states..
..On Sunday, strong winds behind the cold front may gust to 40 MPH or may potentially reach wind advisory thresholds..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the potential for convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong wind potential later Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the strong wind potential for Sunday..

An unusual February setup for convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms particularly over Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut as a strong cold front will bring an end to the record warmth for the region. This is a setup where there will be strong winds aloft for convection to tap into but instability levels will be relatively low and a scenario where convection will need to become organized enough with limited instability to bring the stronger winds down to the surface. While the greatest threat for severe weather will be over Eastern New York, Eastern Pennsylvania and into Eastern New York, a conditional severe thunderstorm threat exists over portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut from the Connecticut River Valley region west. The headlines of this coordination message depict the current setup well. Any convective line of showers and thunderstorms that forms is likely to weaken as it moves east due to limited instability as well as the marine influence as the line gets into central and eastern New England, closer to the coastal areas with southerly winds causing the marine influence to be prevalent further east as the cold front approaches. Behind the cold front as we get into Sunday, strong winds behind the cold front may gust to 40 MPH or may potentially reach wind advisory thresholds.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the potential for convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong wind potential later Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the strong wind potential for Sunday. This will be the only coordination message on the Saturday severe weather potential unless time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Another coordination message will be posted on the strong winds for Sunday only if a Wind Advisory is issued. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Evening 2/15/17-Thursday Morning 2/16/17 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Very tough forecast for snowfall amounts in Eastern Massachusetts. Storm low formation further south than expected and that could mean more widespread and heavier snowfall in portions of Eastern Massachusetts. Uncertainty remains higher than normal..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 AM Thursday for Essex County Massachusetts for 3-6″ of snow. Potentially higher amounts could occur if heavier snow bands persist over Essex County. If the wraparound precipitation moves offshore faster than expected, lesser snow would be possible..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 AM Thursday for Central and Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, North-Central Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 1-3″ of snow and snow potentially affecting the morning commute. Potentially higher amounts could occur if heavier snow bands persist over some or all of this advisory area. If the wraparound precipitation moves offshore faster than expected, lesser snow would be possible..
..Strong Winds are possible over the Cape and Islands on Thursday. These strong winds are expected to remain below Wind Advisory thresholds but gusts to 40 MPH with slightly higher gusts are possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system tonight into Thursday Morning..

A very tricky storm system for tonight into Thursday Morning leads to higher than normal uncertainty on snowfall amounts and the potential for a sharp cutoff between accumulating snow and non-accumulating snow. A low pressure system has formed further south than modeled from near and to the east of Nantucket sound. This has resulted in a precipitation shield over Eastern Massachusetts with rain changing to snow with the heaviest precipitation across Essex, Eastern Middlesex, Eastern Norfolk, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts. The key factors for this storm event is whether the precipitation will persist over these areas or if it will slide steady eastward and how heavy the precipitation is. Models have wide solutions here even though this event is unfolding and does not have a good handle of how the low pressure system has formed over Southeast New England. At the time of this coordination message, rain is changing to snow from west to east within the precipitation area. There is the potential for a large variance in snowfall in the advisory area and the potential for some/all areas to receive either much higher or much lower than current forecasted snow amounts based on the persistence of the snow bands and whether they maintain themselves over the area for a sufficient period of time.

There is also the risk for some strong winds on Thursday. At this time, these winds are expected to remain below Wind Advisory thresholds but gusts to 40 MPH with some slightly higher gusts are possible.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system tonight into Thursday Morning. This will most likely be the last coordination message on this system unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Evening 2/15/17-Thursday Morning 2/16/17 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..A storm system looks to impact portions of Maine and New Hampshire with the possibility of impacts in the North Shore of Massachusetts and the possibility to a lesser extent of impacts in other parts of Northern Massachusetts..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Essex County Massachusetts from 7 PM this Wednesday Evening through Thursday Morning for 4-6″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. The snow has the potential to be heavy and wet clinging to trees and power lines so if these amounts occur, isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages could occur. Other parts of Northern Massachusetts could see advisory level snowfall. The forecast is lower confidence despite being a short-term forecast as just a small track error of 25-50 miles can be the difference of heavier snowfall in northern portions of our area versus a lighter snowfall..
..Wind Advisories maybe requires for portions of Cape Cod and the Islands Thursday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system tonight into Thursday. A more complete coordination message will follow by 11 PM Wednesday Night. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics..

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #4 – Sunday 2/12/17-Monday Evening 2/13/17 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Powerful Coastal Storm will Affect the Region Sunday Through Monday bringing heavy snowfall, potential for blizzard conditions in portions of Southern New England, Strong to Damaging Winds in much of Southern New England and minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Sunday Afternoon and widespread moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding for the Monday midday high tide. This will be a long duration storm system to affect the region..
..A Blizzard Watch remains in effect from late Sunday Night into Monday Evening and A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 4 AM Monday for Essex and Eastern Plymouth Counties. This is for total snowfall of 12-18″ for Essex County Massachusetts and 6-12 inches of snow for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts. The potential for whiteout conditions, blowing and drifting of snow, thundersnow, strong to damaging winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible, and blizzard conditions occurring later Sunday Night into Monday. The strong to damaging winds along with the potential for wet snow could cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages over the region..
..A Blizzard Watch remains in effect from late Sunday Night through Monday Evening for Barnstable County and Nantucket for 4-6″ of snow and the potential for whiteout conditions, thundersnow, strong to damaging winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible and blizzard conditions. The strong to damaging winds along with the potential for wet snow could cause scattered pockets to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages over the region. It is noted precipitation in this area will likely start as a wintry mix or rain before changing over to snow and becoming heavy which is why snow amounts in this area will be lighter. The timing of the transition and track of the storm could significantly change snow amounts in this area..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 7 PM Monday for Franklin, Northern Worcester, Hampshire and Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 12-16″ of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 40 MPH. The combination of the strong winds and the snow at least starting out on the heavy and wet side could lead to isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Thundersnow is also possible especially in eastern areas of the warning later Sunday Night into Monday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 7 PM Monday for Hampden, Southern Worcester, Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for 8-12″ of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH strongest at the coast. The precipitation in this area is now expected to start as snow but could see some wintry mix Sunday Evening and then a changeover back to snow. The snow could be on the wet and heavy side especially at the start and along with the strong winds this could lead to scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages particularly in eastern areas of the warning. Thundersnow is also possible especially in eastern areas of the warning later Sunday Night into Monday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect through 7 PM Monday for Northern Connecticut, Providence, Kent, and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and Bristol and Western and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 40-50 MPH with higher wind gusts along the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island to 60 MPH. Precipitation will likely start as snow and then become a wintry mix or rain at times later Sunday Night before changing back to snow and there still could be a wet snow for a time. The combination of the wet snow and strong winds could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Thundersnow is also possible especially in eastern areas of the warning later Sunday Night into Monday..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 7 PM Monday for Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island and Martha’s Vineyard for 2-4″ of snow and sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH with snow changing to a wintry mix/rain and then changing back to snow. The combination of the wet snow and strong winds could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Monday Morning through Monday Evening for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Block Island Rhode Island for sustained winds 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds will likely cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 2 PM Sunday for Eastern Norfolk, Suffolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding at the time of the midday Sunday high tide for vulnerable shore roads in the area..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect from late Monday Morning to Monday Mid-Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod, and Nantucket Island for widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding of shore roads across the area and the potential for widespread moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding in the area from Sandwich to Eastham on Cape Cod on the North/Northwest facing areas..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence no later than 11 AM with overnight operations required through Monday Evening. ARES/RACES Groups in the Blizzard Watch and Coastal Flood Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this system..
..Pictures and video of storm related damage from strong winds, wet snow and coastal flooding and whiteout/blizzard conditions can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook or Twitter feed or via the pics@nsradio.org email address with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator for providing the material unless otherwise indicated..

There has not been much change to the headlines from last night except for the addition of a High Wind Watch for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island not covered by the Blizzard Watch as winds sustained at 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH are possible in this area with the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages there. The strong to damaging wind threat has become a bit higher confidence for coastal areas of Southern New England and extending into other parts of Eastern New England. Regarding blizzard conditions over the Blizzard Watch areas, there is still enough difference in the models where the watches have not been converted to Blizzard Warnings and will take additional model runs to sort through. The highest confidence in blizzard conditions is over the North Shore of Massachusetts. Again, the headlines of this message represent current thinking. Key factors for this upcoming major winter storm/blizzard potential and adjustments to watches, warnings and advisories include:

1.) The track of the system and how close intensification is to the Southern New England coast line. Since last night, one of the American models has gotten the closest to Southern New England with the European guidance a little further offshore and other models a bit further offshore. Again, a small, 50 mile difference in track could change outcomes especially in western and central parts of the region and in inland and south and east coastal areas of Eastern New England in terms of heavier snowfall and blizzard conditions.
2.) Colder temperatures have locked into much of the region away from Cape Cod and the Islands so much of the area will start off as snow with a wintry mix possible as we get into Sunday Night across Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island possibly extending as far north as Boston before a changeover to snow as the storm rapidly intensifies. This could impact snowfall amounts as well in the southern half of the area..
3.) The consistency of the snow and how long it remains wet snow will also factor into snow amounts but also factor into the amount of tree and power line damage and power outage potential and how large of an area it could cover in the region coupled with the strong to damaging winds.

Future model runs should bring clarity to these key factors and that will adjust the watches, warnings and advisories accordingly.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence no later than 11 AM with overnight operations required through Monday Evening. ARES/RACES Groups in the Blizzard Watch and Coastal Flood Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this system. Another coordination message if time allows as we move into Operations mode will be posted Sunday Night. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Watch/Advisory Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #3 Saturday Night 2/11/17 Light Icing Potential & Sunday 2/12/17-Monday Evening 2/13/17 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Powerful Coastal Storm will Affect the Region Sunday Through Monday bringing heavy snowfall, potential for blizzard conditions in portions of Southern New England, Strong to Damaging Winds in much of Southern New England and minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Sunday Afternoon and widespread moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding for the Monday midday high tide. This will be a long duration storm system to affect the region..
..Prior to coastal storm, freezing drizzle could make for icy road conditions across sections of Southern New England and travelers should use caution driving around the region this Saturday Evening and overnight..
..A Blizzard Watch is now in effect from late Sunday Night into Monday Evening and A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 4 AM Monday for Essex and Eastern Plymouth Counties. This is for total snowfall of 12-18″ for Essex County Massachusetts and 6-12 inches of snow for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts. The potential for whiteout conditions,blowing and drifting of snow, thundersnow, strong to damaging winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible, and blizzard conditions occurring later Sunday Night into Monday. The strong to damaging winds along with the potential for wet snow could cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages over the region. The Blizzard Watch serves as a replacement to the high wind watch for this area..
..A Blizzard Watch is now in effect from late Sunday Night through Monday Evening for Barnstable County and Nantucket for 4-6″ of snow and the potential for whiteout conditions, thundersnow, strong to damaging winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible and blizzard conditions. The strong to damaging winds along with the potential for wet snow could cause scattered pockets to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages over the region. The Blizzard Watch serves as a replacement to the high wind watch for this area. It is noted precipitation in this area will likely start as a wintry mix or rain before changing over to snow and becoming heavy which is why snow amounts in this area will be lighter. The timing of the transition and track of the storm could significantly change snow amounts in this area..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Franklin, Northern Worcester, Hampshire and Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 12-16″ of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 40 MPH. The combination of the strong winds and the snow at least starting out on the heavy and wet side could lead to isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Thundersnow is also possible especially in eastern areas of the warning..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Monday for Hampden, Southern Worcester, Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH strongest at the coast. The precipitation in this area could start as a period of rain or wintry mix before changing over to snow and become heavy at times. The snow could be on the wet and heavy side especially at the start and this could lead to scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages. Thundersnow is also possible especially in eastern areas of the warning..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Monday for Northern Connecticut, Providence, Kent, and Bristol Counties of Rhode Island and Bristol and Western and Southern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow and sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with wind gusts to 40-50 MPH strongest at the coast. Precipitation may be a wintry mix or rain at the start changing over to snow and could be a wet snow for a time. The combination of the wet snow and strong winds could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Thundersnow is also possible especially in eastern areas of the warning..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Monday for Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island and Martha’s Vineyard for 2-4″ of snow and sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. The combination of the wet snow and strong winds could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 11 AM to 2 PM Sunday for Eastern Norfolk, Suffolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for minor coastal flooding at the time of the midday Sunday high tide for vulnerable shore roads in the area..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect from late Monday Morning to Monday Mid-Afternoon for East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod, and Nantucket Island for widespread minor to moderate coastal flooding of shore roads across the area and the potential for widespread moderate to isolated pockets of major coastal flooding in the area from Sandwich to Eastham on Cape Cod on the North/Northwest facing areas..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence no later than 11 AM with overnight operations required through Monday Evening. ARES/RACES Groups in the Blizzard Watch and Coastal Flood Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this system..
..Pictures and video of storm related damage from strong winds, wet snow and coastal flooding and whiteout/blizzard conditions can be sent as a reply to this email, via our WX1BOX Facebook or Twitter feed or via the pics@nsradio.org email address with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator for providing the material unless otherwise indicated..

Prior to the coastal storm, some light icing conditions could cause some icy road conditions across much of Southern New England especially central and eastern areas. A Special Weather Statement for this situation has been posted and its listed below:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement – Icy Conditions Overnight:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

Models are gradually coalescing on a solution that provides a significant impact to Southern New England to include heavy snowfall, the potential for blizzard conditions in a portion of Eastern Massachusetts in the most eastern areas, strong to damaging winds, strongest in Eastern New England and the threat of coastal flooding in East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket particularly for the Monday midday high tide cycle. There is still some spread in the model guidance that could change outcomes. The headlines of this message represent current thinking. Key factors for this upcoming major winter storm/blizzard potential and adjustments to watches, warnings and advisories include:

1.) The track of the system and how close intensification is to the Southern New England coast line. Again, the European model guidance remains the closest with the intensification process happening close to our coast line and one of the American models sliding into agreement while one of the other reliable American models remains a bit more offshore. A small, 50 mile difference in track could change outcomes especially in western and central parts of the region and in inland and south coastal areas of Eastern New England in terms of heavier snowfall and blizzard conditions.
2.) The timing of the changeover in precipitation type can also affect snowfall amounts across the southern half of the region particularly along and south of the Massachusetts Turnpike.
3.) The consistency of the snow and how long it remains wet snow will also factor into snow amounts but also factor into the amount of tree and power line damage and power outage potential and how large of an area it could cover in the region coupled with the strong to damaging winds.

Future model runs should bring clarity to these key factors and that will adjust the watches, warnings and advisories accordingly.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will likely commence no later than 11 AM with overnight operations required through Monday Evening. ARES/RACES Groups in the Blizzard Watch and Coastal Flood Watch areas should closely monitor the progress of this system. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Watch/Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Blizzard Watch/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch/Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Post Blizzard Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 2/9/17 Blizzard of 2017

Hello to all…

..For the fifth year straight, a blizzard has impacted a portion of Southern New England with 10 locations meeting blizzard criteria as defined by the National Weather Service. At the height of the storm, over 57,000 people were without power centered across Cape Cod and the Islands and to a lesser extent Southeast Plymouth County Massachusetts from wind gusts as high as 70 MPH and wet snow causing significant pockets of tree and wire damage in this area. Thundersnow was reported for a widespread area across Southern New England and over a sustained period of time with even lightning damage reported in a couple locations in Rhode Island. A widespread snowfall of 10-19″ was recorded across the region with minor coastal flooding recorded on the Thursday Morning high tide cycle..
..For those that may still have pictures and videos, we would welcome them for the historical record of this blizzard. They can be sent as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feed, or to the pics@nsradio.org email address. Credit will be given to the SKYWARN Spotter/Amateur Radio Operator or agency for the photos and/or videos unless otherwise indicated. Due to the active winter weather pattern, this is likely to be the only post coordination message on this blizzard though the Facebook Album could be updated with photos over the course of the week..
..Summary Local Storm Reports of damage and coastal flooding and wind measurements, a Public Information Statement summary of snowfall and wind measurements, the master report log at the WX1BOX Amateur Radio desk of NWS Taunton and a link to a Facebook Album of damage and storm photos are listed below..

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report Summary:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/lsr_2_9_17_master.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement Spotter Report Summary:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/PNS_Blizzard_Spotter_reports_2_9_17.txt

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement – Blizzard Report Summary:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/pns_blizzard_2017_2_9_17.txt

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log Summary:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/reports_2_9_17_master_list.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm Coordination Message #2 Sunday 2/12/17-Monday Evening 2/13/17 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..After a light snowfall overnight Friday into this Saturday Morning, a more powerful winter storm expected in a continuing very active winter weather pattern through the end of next week. Winter Storm Watches expanded and a High Wind Watch issued..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect from Sunday Morning through Monday Evening for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 6-10″ of snow with amounts of up to 1 foot possible..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Sunday Morning through Monday Evening for Northern Connecticut, Providence and Kent Counties of Rhode Island, Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Northern Bristol, North-Central Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow and sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH and higher gusts to 65 MPH on the North Shore and Cape Cod. The combination of the snow potentially being heavy and wet with the strong to damaging winds will have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages as well as whiteout conditions from blowing and drifting of snow..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Eastern Essex County, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island from Monday Morning to late Monday Night for sustained winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH. Again, these winds can cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..Additional watches, warnings and advisories are likely to be issued for other parts of the coverage area for snowfall and coastal flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for snowfall totals for the light snowstorm this morning. SKYWARN Activation is likely for the Sunday to Monday timeframe with Ops at NWS Taunton likely for a portion of the timeframe and self-activation utilized for a portion of the timeframe..

A light snowstorm occurred overnight into this morning and has brought a widespread 1-3″ of snowfall with some areas receiving 3-4″ of snow. SKYWARN Self-Activation is monitoring for snowfall reports from this snow event.

A more significant winter storm is likely to unfold Sunday into Monday Evening. The headlines of this coordination message reflect the current thinking. The Winter Storm Watch has been expanded to cover East Coastal and interior Eastern Massachusetts including Cape Cod, North-Central Rhode Island and Northern Connecticut. A High Wind Watch has also been posted for the North Shore and Cape Cod from Monday Morning to Monday Evening. Additional watches, warnings and advisories for snowfall and coastal flooding could be seen in future updates. We are still looking for better consensus of the models as we have some very reliable guidance forecasting the track and rapid intensification of the storm closer to the Southern New England coast while other reliable consensus models are further offshore when the storm rapidly intensifies. Current trends suggest that the storm track and intensification will be closer to the coast but these trends will bear further watching. It is again noted that over the course of Sunday into early Monday, there will be more of a wintry mix and even rain during the onset of the storm before the storm intensifies and then cools the atmosphere with a changeover to snow occurring. The onset of precipitation as rain or a wintry mix at the start before changing over to snow is particularly true along along and south of the Mass Pike and in coastal areas but possibly in other interior locations as well. The timing of the changeover and what form precipitation is in at the onset will also affect snowfall amounts in the region. Regardless of impacts over land, this storm will be a dangerous storm for marine interests.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for snowfall totals for the light snowstorm this morning. SKYWARN Activation is likely for the Sunday to Monday timeframe with Ops at NWS Taunton likely for a portion of the timeframe and self-activation utilized for a portion of the timeframe. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Saturday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 2/11/17 Light Snow Event & Sunday 2/12/17-Monday Evening 2/13/17 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..After the February 9th 2017 Blizzard, the weather pattern will remain quite active with the potential for several winter storm systems over the next week. Plan ahead for an active period of winter weather..
..Light snowstorm overnight into Saturday Morning will bring a widespread 1-3″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. Larger and potentially significant winter storm is possible Sunday into Monday with the potential for the most threatening impacts Sunday Night into Monday with potential for significant impacts to the Monday Morning commute possible..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Sunday Morning through Monday Evening for Franklin, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 6-10″ of snow with amounts of up to 1 foot possible. This watch could be expanded into other areas or their could be additional watches, warnings and advisories issued for winter weather, the potential for strong to damaging winds and the potential for coastal flooding depending on the track, speed and intensity of a coastal storm for our region. This significant coastal storm will also have major impacts to the marine community later Sunday Night and Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for snowfall totals for the light snowstorm overnight into Saturday Morning. SKYWARN Activation is likely for the Sunday to Monday timeframe with Ops at NWS Taunton likely for a portion of the timeframe and self-activation utilized for a portion of the timeframe..

A light snowstorm is expected overnight tonight into Saturday Morning. It will bring a widespread snowfall of 1-3″ with a few isolated higher amounts possible in a few locations. This storm will end by midday Saturday.

A more significant winter storm is likely to unfold Sunday into Monday Evening. The headlines of this coordination message reflect the current thinking and the potential for additional watches, warnings and advisories for snowfall outside of the current watch area and the potential of strong to damaging winds and coastal flooding depending on storm track and how close to the region the storm intensifies. The Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the area most likely to receive 6″ or more of snowfall but this could change based on storm track and how closely it intensifies to Southern New England. At this time, we know a coastal storm will definitely develop and intensify significantly but the question will be how close is the storm to Southern New England and how close will it be when it starts its rapid intensification and does it slow down and possibly even retrograde or expand its envelope over portions of Southern New England. Some reliable model guidance brings the storm and its intensification process quite close to Southern New England while other models are more offshore. Where intensification occurs and the storm track will determine snowfall amounts over the region, the changeover of rain to snow over Southeast New England and how significant any snowfall will be as conditions will warm above freezing out ahead of the main coastal storm formation process as well as the intensity of the winds and the wind direction and any coastal flood potential. Regardless of impacts over land, this storm will be a dangerous storm for marine interests.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for snowfall totals for the light snowstorm overnight into Saturday Morning. SKYWARN Activation is likely for the Sunday to Monday timeframe with Ops at NWS Taunton likely for a portion of the timeframe and self-activation utilized for a portion of the timeframe. Another coordination message will be posted by Noon Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Marine Weather Statement and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Marine Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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