Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Evening 2/15/17-Thursday Morning 2/16/17 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Very tough forecast for snowfall amounts in Eastern Massachusetts. Storm low formation further south than expected and that could mean more widespread and heavier snowfall in portions of Eastern Massachusetts. Uncertainty remains higher than normal..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 AM Thursday for Essex County Massachusetts for 3-6″ of snow. Potentially higher amounts could occur if heavier snow bands persist over Essex County. If the wraparound precipitation moves offshore faster than expected, lesser snow would be possible..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 AM Thursday for Central and Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, North-Central Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 1-3″ of snow and snow potentially affecting the morning commute. Potentially higher amounts could occur if heavier snow bands persist over some or all of this advisory area. If the wraparound precipitation moves offshore faster than expected, lesser snow would be possible..
..Strong Winds are possible over the Cape and Islands on Thursday. These strong winds are expected to remain below Wind Advisory thresholds but gusts to 40 MPH with slightly higher gusts are possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system tonight into Thursday Morning..

A very tricky storm system for tonight into Thursday Morning leads to higher than normal uncertainty on snowfall amounts and the potential for a sharp cutoff between accumulating snow and non-accumulating snow. A low pressure system has formed further south than modeled from near and to the east of Nantucket sound. This has resulted in a precipitation shield over Eastern Massachusetts with rain changing to snow with the heaviest precipitation across Essex, Eastern Middlesex, Eastern Norfolk, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts. The key factors for this storm event is whether the precipitation will persist over these areas or if it will slide steady eastward and how heavy the precipitation is. Models have wide solutions here even though this event is unfolding and does not have a good handle of how the low pressure system has formed over Southeast New England. At the time of this coordination message, rain is changing to snow from west to east within the precipitation area. There is the potential for a large variance in snowfall in the advisory area and the potential for some/all areas to receive either much higher or much lower than current forecasted snow amounts based on the persistence of the snow bands and whether they maintain themselves over the area for a sufficient period of time.

There is also the risk for some strong winds on Thursday. At this time, these winds are expected to remain below Wind Advisory thresholds but gusts to 40 MPH with some slightly higher gusts are possible.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system tonight into Thursday Morning. This will most likely be the last coordination message on this system unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Very tough forecast for snowfall amounts in Eastern Massachusetts. Storm low formation further south than expected and that could mean more widespread and heavier snowfall in portions of Eastern Massachusetts. Uncertainty remains higher than normal..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 AM Thursday for Essex County Massachusetts for 3-6″ of snow. Potentially higher amounts could occur if heavier snow bands persist over Essex County. If the wraparound precipitation moves offshore faster than expected, lesser snow would be possible..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 10 AM Thursday for Central and Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Suffolk, North-Central Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts for 1-3″ of snow and snow potentially affecting the morning commute. Potentially higher amounts could occur if heavier snow bands persist over some or all of this advisory area. If the wraparound precipitation moves offshore faster than expected, lesser snow would be possible..
..Strong Winds are possible over the Cape and Islands on Thursday. These strong winds are expected to remain below Wind Advisory thresholds but gusts to 40 MPH with slightly higher gusts are possible..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system tonight into Thursday Morning..

A very tricky storm system for tonight into Thursday Morning leads to higher than normal uncertainty on snowfall amounts and the potential for a sharp cutoff between accumulating snow and non-accumulating snow. A low pressure system has formed further south than modeled from near and to the east of Nantucket sound. This has resulted in a precipitation shield over Eastern Massachusetts with rain changing to snow with the heaviest precipitation across Essex, Eastern Middlesex, Eastern Norfolk, Plymouth and Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts. The key factors for this storm event is whether the precipitation will persist over these areas or if it will slide steady eastward and how heavy the precipitation is. Models have wide solutions here even though this event is unfolding and does not have a good handle of how the low pressure system has formed over Southeast New England. At the time of this coordination message, rain is changing to snow from west to east within the precipitation area. There is the potential for a large variance in snowfall in the advisory area and the potential for some/all areas to receive either much higher or much lower than current forecasted snow amounts based on the persistence of the snow bands and whether they maintain themselves over the area for a sufficient period of time.

There is also the risk for some strong winds on Thursday. At this time, these winds are expected to remain below Wind Advisory thresholds but gusts to 40 MPH with some slightly higher gusts are possible.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this storm system tonight into Thursday Morning. This will most likely be the last coordination message on this system unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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