Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 2/25/17 Severe Weather Potential & Sunday 2/26/17 Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all…

..The record warmth of the past few days will come to an end as a strong cold front will move through the area bringing convective showers and possibly even isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds as the primary threat particularly in the Connecticut Valley Region of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of this area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Just to the west, a slight risk of severe weather covers much of Eastern New York, Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey through the mid-atlantic states..
..On Sunday, strong winds behind the cold front may gust to 40 MPH or may potentially reach wind advisory thresholds..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the potential for convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong wind potential later Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the strong wind potential for Sunday..

An unusual February setup for convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms particularly over Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut as a strong cold front will bring an end to the record warmth for the region. This is a setup where there will be strong winds aloft for convection to tap into but instability levels will be relatively low and a scenario where convection will need to become organized enough with limited instability to bring the stronger winds down to the surface. While the greatest threat for severe weather will be over Eastern New York, Eastern Pennsylvania and into Eastern New York, a conditional severe thunderstorm threat exists over portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut from the Connecticut River Valley region west. The headlines of this coordination message depict the current setup well. Any convective line of showers and thunderstorms that forms is likely to weaken as it moves east due to limited instability as well as the marine influence as the line gets into central and eastern New England, closer to the coastal areas with southerly winds causing the marine influence to be prevalent further east as the cold front approaches. Behind the cold front as we get into Sunday, strong winds behind the cold front may gust to 40 MPH or may potentially reach wind advisory thresholds.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the potential for convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong wind potential later Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the strong wind potential for Sunday. This will be the only coordination message on the Saturday severe weather potential unless time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Another coordination message will be posted on the strong winds for Sunday only if a Wind Advisory is issued. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..The record warmth of the past few days will come to an end as a strong cold front will move through the area bringing convective showers and possibly even isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds as the primary threat particularly in the Connecticut Valley Region of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut where the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of this area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Just to the west, a slight risk of severe weather covers much of Eastern New York, Eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey through the mid-atlantic states..
..On Sunday, strong winds behind the cold front may gust to 40 MPH or may potentially reach wind advisory thresholds..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the potential for convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong wind potential later Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the strong wind potential for Sunday..

An unusual February setup for convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms particularly over Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut as a strong cold front will bring an end to the record warmth for the region. This is a setup where there will be strong winds aloft for convection to tap into but instability levels will be relatively low and a scenario where convection will need to become organized enough with limited instability to bring the stronger winds down to the surface. While the greatest threat for severe weather will be over Eastern New York, Eastern Pennsylvania and into Eastern New York, a conditional severe thunderstorm threat exists over portions of Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut from the Connecticut River Valley region west. The headlines of this coordination message depict the current setup well. Any convective line of showers and thunderstorms that forms is likely to weaken as it moves east due to limited instability as well as the marine influence as the line gets into central and eastern New England, closer to the coastal areas with southerly winds causing the marine influence to be prevalent further east as the cold front approaches. Behind the cold front as we get into Sunday, strong winds behind the cold front may gust to 40 MPH or may potentially reach wind advisory thresholds.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the potential for convective showers and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with strong wind potential later Saturday Afternoon into Saturday Night. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the strong wind potential for Sunday. This will be the only coordination message on the Saturday severe weather potential unless time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Another coordination message will be posted on the strong winds for Sunday only if a Wind Advisory is issued. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Leave a Reply