Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 3/1/17 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Unseasonably warm weather returns with a threat of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with Damaging Winds as the primary threat while there is also a secondary threat for other forms of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest Massachusetts and Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather while a marginal risk for severe weather exists for the remainder of Southern New England away from the immediate east and south coasts of the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential..

In a rather unusual weather pattern, the second potential severe weather threat in 5 days is possible over portions of Southern New England. The greatest risk for severe weather is in the SPC defined Slight Risk area and possible extending northward into other parts of Western and Central Massachusetts but all areas as defined in the marginal and slight risk areas have severe weather potential. Key items and factors for this severe weather potential include:

1.) Amount of forcing with the cold front. Some models try and move this forcing both to the north and south of Southern New England leaving the very strong wind shear over the region untapped for potential strong to severe thunderstorm potential.
2.) Amount of instability over the region and whether widespread showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday Morning do not allow for sufficient instability for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Similar to Saturday, this is a low instability but high wind shear environment. There needs to be sufficient instability coupled with the wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. A factor in Saturday’s severe weather was there was forcing, enough instability and very strong wind shear for the right mix of factors to produce severe weather over portions of Western New England. The question for Wednesday’s severe weather potential is whether those same factors align again as they did Saturday or if the favorable components can compensate for the components that are less favorable in this setup.

Similar to Saturday Evening, the main threat will be strong to damaging winds and a low-topped squall line configuration of strong to severe thunderstorms and possibly some hail. There is also the possibility for an isolated tornado if similar to Saturday Evening, a bow configuration forms on the line along the northern edge and allows for wind shear to be tapped with sufficient rotation for a brief isolated tornado. This potential will be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Wednesday Morning on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170228_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Hello to all…

..Unseasonably warm weather returns with a threat of Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with Damaging Winds as the primary threat while there is also a secondary threat for other forms of severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Southwest Massachusetts and Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather while a marginal risk for severe weather exists for the remainder of Southern New England away from the immediate east and south coasts of the region..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential..

In a rather unusual weather pattern, the second potential severe weather threat in 5 days is possible over portions of Southern New England. The greatest risk for severe weather is in the SPC defined Slight Risk area and possible extending northward into other parts of Western and Central Massachusetts but all areas as defined in the marginal and slight risk areas have severe weather potential. Key items and factors for this severe weather potential include:

1.) Amount of forcing with the cold front. Some models try and move this forcing both to the north and south of Southern New England leaving the very strong wind shear over the region untapped for potential strong to severe thunderstorm potential.
2.) Amount of instability over the region and whether widespread showers and isolated non-severe thunderstorms tonight into Wednesday Morning do not allow for sufficient instability for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Similar to Saturday, this is a low instability but high wind shear environment. There needs to be sufficient instability coupled with the wind shear for strong to severe thunderstorms to develop. A factor in Saturday’s severe weather was there was forcing, enough instability and very strong wind shear for the right mix of factors to produce severe weather over portions of Western New England. The question for Wednesday’s severe weather potential is whether those same factors align again as they did Saturday or if the favorable components can compensate for the components that are less favorable in this setup.

Similar to Saturday Evening, the main threat will be strong to damaging winds and a low-topped squall line configuration of strong to severe thunderstorms and possibly some hail. There is also the possibility for an isolated tornado if similar to Saturday Evening, a bow configuration forms on the line along the northern edge and allows for wind shear to be tapped with sufficient rotation for a brief isolated tornado. This potential will be monitored closely.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 230 PM Wednesday Afternoon lasting through Wednesday Evening for severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Wednesday Morning on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170228_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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