Storm Coordination Message #4 – Friday 3/31/17-Saturday 4/1/17 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Winter is not over yet in Southern New England as a winter storm system will affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. Exact snow and/or ice amounts remain uncertain given spread in the model guidance. Worst conditions expected Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning in Central and Western areas and possibly extending into Saturday Afternoon in Northeast parts of the area..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Franklin, Hampshire, Northern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts from 11 AM Friday Morning through 11 AM Saturday Morning for 6-9″ of snow with isolated higher amounts in the 9-12″ range near the New Hampshire border. The wet snow/sleet could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Worst conditions expected Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for Northern and Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties Massachusetts from 2 PM Friday Afternoon 2 PM Saturday Afternoon for 6-9″ of snow with isolated higher amounts near the New Hampshire border. The wet snow/sleet could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Worst conditions expected Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 2 PM Friday Afternoon through 2 PM Saturday Afternoon for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for 2-6″ of snow and sleet with the highest amounts away from the coast. If higher snowfall amounts occur, this could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Worst conditions expected late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Afternoon..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM Saturday for Northern Connecticut and Hampden and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow and sleet with the highest amounts near the Mass Pike and a trace of ice accretion..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM Saturday for Norfolk County Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for 2-5″ of snow and a trace of ice. The heaviest precipitation will be Friday Evening through the overnight hours Friday into early Saturday..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from Midnight to Noon Saturday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. Other parts of the coast could see wind gusts around 40 MPH overnight through Saturday Morning. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..Minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide is possible at the Saturday Morning and especially Saturday Afternoon high tide cycles..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm throughout the entire event but Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning depending on snow and ice accumulation and rates and damage potential with the wet snow and ice. A shortened coordination message will be sent if time allows and ops are initiated..

Winter is not quite done with Southern New England. Another winter storm system will likely affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. The headlines reflect current thinking but could change as models remain divergent in terms of storm track and amount of cold air over the region but the current advisories and warnings and snow/sleet/ice amounts are based on current model trends. As mentioned previously, key factors for this storm system:

1.) Exact track and intensity of the storm system. The storm is currently expected to track south of New England as an intensifying coastal storm and its exact track and intensity will affect amount of cold air available, rain/ice/snow line, strength of winds at the coast and precipitation amounts. Some models bring more warm air into the storm system than others for more ice in the interior and rain at the coast while other models imply colder air and more potential for wet snow. Amount of cold air, storm track and intensity will affect the rain/snow line and the amounts of snow and ice.
2.) Timing of heavy precipitation. This is currently expected to be in the later afternoon and evening hours Friday into Saturday Morning which may allow for better snow and ice accumulation with heavier precipitation possibly extending into Saturday Afternoon in Northeast Massachusetts. If any one type of precipitation is heavy enough (wet snow or ice accumulation), this could potentially cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Uncertainty is higher than normal given spread in model guidance on storm track and cold air along with the high sun angle of March and impact on precipitation type.

This type of winter storm could have higher variability in precipitation type and snow and ice amounts based on location and elevation. Spotter reports for this storm system per the reporting criteria will be critical during this event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm throughout the entire event but Ops at NWS Taunton remain possible late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning depending on snow and ice accumulation and rates and damage potential with the wet snow and ice. A shortened coordination message will be sent if time allows and ops are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #3 – Friday 3/31/17-Saturday 4/1/17 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Winter is not over yet in Southern New England as a winter storm system will affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. Exact snow and/or ice amounts remain uncertain given spread in the model guidance. Worst conditions expected Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning in Central and Western areas and possibly extending into Saturday Afternoon in Northeast parts of the area..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Franklin, Hampshire, Northern Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts from Friday Morning through Saturday Afternoon for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts in the 8-12″ range near the New Hampshire border and icing of up to one-tenth of an inch. The wet snow/sleet could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Worst conditions expected Friday Afternoon into Saturday Morning..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Friday Afternoon through Saturday Afternoon for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for 4-6″ of snow and sleet with isolated higher amounts. If higher snowfall amounts occur, this could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Worst conditions expected late Friday Afternoon into Saturday Afternoon..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 2 AM Friday to 8 AM Saturday for Northern Connecticut and Hampden and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow and sleet with the highest amounts near the Mass Pike and a trace to a quarter inch of ice accretion at elevations above 800 feet..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM Friday to 8 AM Saturday for Norfolk County Massachusetts and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for 1-4″ of snow and one-tenth inch of ice. The heaviest precipitation will be Friday Afternoon into Friday Night..
..Strong Winds will be possible later Friday Night and Saturday in the coastal plain with the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Saturday Morning and Saturday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor activity Friday Morning into mid-afternoon with SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton possible mid to late Friday Afternoon through late Friday Night..

Winter is not quite done with Southern New England. Another winter storm system will likely affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. The headlines reflect current thinking but could change as models remain divergent in terms of storm track and amount of cold air over the region but the current advisory, watch expansion and snow/sleet/ice amounts are based on current model trends. As mentioned previously, key factors for this storm system:

1.) Exact track and intensity of the storm system. The storm is currently expected to track south of New England as an intensifying coastal storm and its exact track and intensity will affect amount of cold air available, rain/ice/snow line, strength of winds at the coast and precipitation amounts. Some models bring more warm air into the storm system than others for more ice in the interior and rain at the coast while other models imply colder air and more potential for wet snow. Amount of cold air, storm track and intensity will affect the rain/snow line and the amounts of snow and ice.
2.) Timing of heavy precipitation. This is currently expected to be in the later afternoon and evening hours Friday into Saturday Morning which may allow for better snow and ice accumulation with heavier precipitation possibly extending into Saturday Afternoon in Northeast Massachusetts. If any one type of precipitation is heavy enough (wet snow or ice accumulation), this could potentially cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Uncertainty is higher than normal given spread in model guidance on storm track and cold air along with the high sun angle of March and impact on precipitation type. The uncertainty should gradually reduce as we get closer to the storm event.

This type of winter storm could have higher variability in precipitation type and snow and ice amounts based on location and elevation. Spotter reports for this storm system per the reporting criteria will be critical during this event.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor activity Friday Morning into mid-afternoon with SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton possible late Friday Afternoon through late Friday Night. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Friday 3/31/17-Saturday 4/1/17 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Winter is not over yet in Southern New England as a winter storm system will affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. Exact snow and/or ice amounts are uncertain..
..A Winter Storm Watch remains in effect for Franklin, Hampshire, Northern Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts from Friday Morning through Saturday Afternoon for 4-8″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and/or the potential for significant sleet and/or freezing rain accumulations..
..Outside of the Winter Storm Watch area, some snow and/or ice accumulation is possible away from coastal areas but the extent is uncertain and at this time, are expected to be below Winter Storm Watch/Warning amounts. This will be monitored as we get closer to the storm event as things could change..
..Strong Winds will be possible later Friday Night and Saturday in the coastal plain with the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Saturday Morning and Saturday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday into Saturday depending on the evolution of this winter storm system..

Winter is not quite done with Southern New England. Another winter storm system will likely affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. The headlines reflect current thinking and we are still about 36 hours from the storm event so much could change. Models remain divergent in terms of storm track and amount of cold air over the region. As mentioned previously, key factors for this storm system:

1.) Exact track and intensity of the storm system. The storm is currently expected to track south of New England as an intensifying coastal storm and its exact track and intensity will affect amount of cold air available, rain/ice/snow line, strength of winds at the coast and precipitation amounts. Some models bring more warm air into the storm system than others for more ice in the interior and rain at the coast while other models imply colder air and more potential for wet snow. Amount of cold air, storm track and intensity will affect the rain/snow line and the amounts of snow and ice.
2.) Timing of heavy precipitation. This is currently expected to be in the later afternoon and evening hours Friday into Saturday Morning which may allow for better snow and ice accumulation. If any one type of precipitation is heavy enough (wet snow or ice accumulation), this could potentially cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Uncertainty is higher than normal given spread in model guidance on storm track and cold air along with the high sun angle of March and impact on precipitation type. The uncertainty should gradually reduce as we get closer to the storm event.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday into Saturday depending on the evolution of this winter storm system. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 PM Thursday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Friday 3/31/17-Saturday 4/1/17 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Winter is not over yet in Southern New England as a winter storm system will affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. Exact snow and/or ice amounts are uncertain..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Franklin, Hampshire, Northern Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts from Friday Morning through Saturday Afternoon for either 6″ or more of snow or the potential for significant sleet and/or freezing rain accumulations..
..Outside of the Winter Storm Watch area, some snow and/or ice accumulation is possible away from coastal areas but the extent is uncertain and at this time, are expected to be below Winter Storm Watch/Warning amounts. This will be monitored as we get closer to the storm event as things could change..
..Strong Winds will be possible later Friday Night and Saturday in the coastal plain with the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide Saturday Morning and Saturday Afternoon..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday into Saturday depending on the evolution of this winter storm system..

Winter is not quite done with Southern New England. Another winter storm system will likely affect portions of Southern New England Friday Morning into Saturday Afternoon. The headlines reflect current thinking and we are still 36-48 hours from the storm event so much could change. Key factors for this storm system:

1.) Exact track and intensity of the storm system. The storm is currently expected to track south of New England as an intensifying coastal storm and its exact track and intensity will affect amount of cold air available, rain/ice/snow line, strength of winds at the coast and precipitation amounts. Some models bring more warm air into the storm system than others for more ice in the interior and rain at the coast while other models imply colder air and more potential for wet snow. Amount of cold air, storm track and intensity will affect the rain/snow line and the amounts of snow and ice.
2.) Timing of heavy precipitation. This is currently expected to be in the later afternoon and evening hours Friday into Saturday Morning which may allow for better snow and ice accumulation. If any one type of precipitation is heavy enough (wet snow or ice accumulation), this could potentially cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
3.) Uncertainty is higher than normal given spread in model guidance on storm track and cold air along with the high sun angle of March and impact on precipitation type. The uncertainty should gradually reduce as we get closer to the storm event.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible Friday into Saturday depending on the evolution of this winter storm system. Another coordination message will be posted by 900 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Light Icing Event Sunday Evening 3/26/17-Monday Morning 3/27/17

Hello to all…

..Light icing conditions could result in slippery travel overnight into a portion of the Monday Morning commute..
..A Freezing Rain Advisory is in effect through 8 AM Monday Morning for Franklin, Worcester, Northern Middlesex, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties for a light coating to less than one-tenth of an inch of ice causing slippery travel conditions. Isolated pockets of freezing rain could occur overnight over Northern Connecticut, extreme Northwest Rhode Island, Eastern Hampden, Eastern Hampshire, Western Essex and Central Middlesex county and for these areas a Special Weather Statement has been issued..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor any icing conditions overnight and into Monday Morning. This will be the only coordination message unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Taunton Freezing Rain Advisory Statement, Special Weather Statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Freezing Rain Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Wind Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 3/23/17 Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all…

..Strong Winds today could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages as Arctic cold grips the region later tonight through Thursday Night..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect through 6 PM for Northern Connecticut and Western Massachusetts and A Wind Advisory is in effect through 800 PM for Central and Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 10-25 MPH with wind gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the strong winds today. This will be the only coordination message on this situation unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory statement and Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #3 – Sunday 3/19/17 Winter Storm Event for Cape Cod and Islands

Hello to all…

..Model Trend shifts back a bit more west meaning a bit more snowfall and stronger winds for the Cape Cod and the Islands from the ocean storm with wind gusts to 40 MPH or so in other coastal areas of Eastern Massachusetts..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect through 5 PM EDT Sunday for Cape Cod and Nantucket for 2-4″ of snow with isolated amounts of 4-6″ possible. The heaviest snow is expected to be on the mid to Outer Cape and Nantucket with lesser snow near the Cape Cod Canal. The wet snow coupled with strong winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. A coating to an inch may occur on Martha’s Vineyard..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for Cape Cod and Nantucket from 2 PM Sunday to 2 AM Monday for Cape Cod and Nantucket for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with wind gusts to 60 MPH. A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Martha’s Vineyard from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM Monday sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH. These winds coupled with the wet snow accumulation will have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will continue monitor this coastal storm system..

The coastal storm system has trended a little closer to the coast increasing the snow impacts to Cape Cod and the Islands. Strong to damaging winds are still likely particularly for Cape Cod and the Islands though other coastal areas could see wind gusts to around 40 MPH on Sunday. The headlines of this coordination message depict the current thinking. Key factors with this storm system remain as follows:

1.) The track and intensity of the storm system. Models are little closer with the storm system now prompting Winter Weather Advisories for Cape Cod and Nantucket with the heaviest snowfall for the mid to outer Cape and Nantucket.
2.) Any rain/snow line depending on the storm track and when the storm begins to occlude. This will need monitoring as well as the intensity of the precipitation as lighter precipitation may allow for a changeover to rain while heavier precipitation will allow it to remain snow.
3.) Impacts to roads could be less depending on time of day the heaviest snow is and pavement temperatures but given heavier snow amounts some road accumulation is now possible.
4.) The heavy wet snow threat is now a bit more of a concern with this update. If snowfall reaches around or more than 4″, it would reintroduce a wet snow coupled with strong to damaging wind threat for tree and power line damage. Even with lighter wet snow amounts, the strong winds themselves will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this coastal storm system. This will be the last coordination message on this storm system unless another significant change to the storm scenario occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Sunday 3/19/17 Strong Wind/Light Snow Potential

Hello to all…

..Model Trend reverses and brings coastal winter storm further offshore lessening snow impacts but still strong to damaging winds possible on Cape Cod and the Islands with wind gusts to 40 MPH or so in other coastal areas of Eastern Massachusetts. There are a couple models that still bring the track closer with greater impacts so radar/satellite trends will bear watching..
..The Winter Storm Watch for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard has been cancelled. Only 1-2″ with isolated higher amounts are expected on Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard with snow amounts of 1″ or less elsewhere. If the coastal storm were to deviate closer to the coast, amounts could increase again but that’s currently not expected. It will still be monitored..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 10 AM to 8 PM Sunday for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH. A High Wind Watch remain in effect for Nantucket for sustained winds of 30-35 MPH with wind gusts of 55-60 MPH. These winds will have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. Winds may be a bit stronger on Nantucket leading to the High Wind Watch being left in place for a conversion to a warning or advisory later tonight or Sunday Morning..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this coastal storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton no longer look needed..

The coastal storm system has trended further offshore reducing snow impacts to Southesat New England. Strong winds are still likely particularly for Cape Cod and the Islands though other coastal areas could see wind gusts to around 40 MPH on Sunday. The headlines of this coordination message depict the current thinking. Key factors with this storm system remain as follows:

1.) The track and intensity of the storm system. Most models are moving the system further offshore though holding a stronger intensity. With the further offshore solution, snow amounts were reduced below advisory level and the Winter Storm Watch for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard is cancelled with even less snow expected away from Cape Cod and the Islands. While most reliable models agree on this solution, a couple reliable models still bring the system closer to Southern New England so it will still bear watching.
2.) Any rain/snow line depending on the storm track and when the storm begins to occlude. The further offshore solution would mean mostly snow but light in intensity. An unexpectedly closer storm track would reintroduce the rain/snow line question.
3.) Impacts to roads could be less depending on time of day the heaviest snow is and pavement temperatures and given lighter overall amounts, roads are now more likely to be just wet.
4.) The heavy wet snow threat coupled with the winds is less of a concern but if amounts were to go unexpectedly higher to 4″ or more, it would reintroduce a wet snow coupled with strong to damaging wind threat for tree and power line damage. Even with lighter wet snow amounts, the strong winds themselves will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor this coastal storm system. Ops at NWS Taunton no longer look needed. Another coordination message may be posted by 9 AM EDT Sunday Morning if time allows and based on any significant change to the overall storm scenario. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Cancellation Statement, Wind Advisory/High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Cancellation Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory/High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Saturday Evening 3/18/17-Sunday Evening 3/19/17 Winter Storm Event

Hello to all…

..Another coastal winter storm to affect the region Saturday Night into Sunday Night with uncertainty higher than normal given model disparity though trend has been for a track closer to Southern New England with a wet snow and strong to damaging wind threat for southeast portions of Southern New England..
..A Winter Storm Watch is in effect for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard from Saturday Evening through Sunday Evening for 5-8″ of snow, near blizzard conditions and the heavy wet snow coupled with strong to damaging winds could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A High Wind Watch is in effect for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard from Saturday Evening through Sunday Evening for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. The strong to damaging winds coupled with wet snow could result in isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..Other portions of Southeast New England could see at least advisory level snowfall and Wind Advisory criteria depending on the storm track with lighter snow in the rest of Southern New England..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor this storm system with Ops at NWS Taunton possible depending on track and timing of this coastal storm system..

Another coastal storm system is expected to affect at least portions of Southern New England Saturday Evening through Sunday Evening. The headlines of this coordination message depict the current thinking. Key factors with this storm system are as follows:

1.) The track and intensity of the storm system. All models now indicate a more intense storm system but the track remains fairly divergent though the trend is closer to Southern New England. This may result in the expansion of watches with current thinking for advisory level snowfall and winds over Southeast New England. This will bear watching. Lighter snows are currently expected across the rest of Southern New England.
2.) Any rain/snow line depending on the storm track and when the storm begins to occlude, whether or not it pulls some warm air to cause some rain/sleet mix especially on portions of the Outer Cape and Nantucket island. This rain/snow line could also change based on whether the track is closer to the Southern New England coast.
3.) Impacts to roads could be less depending on time of day the heaviest snow is and pavement temperatures.
4.) The heavy wet snow coupled with strong to damaging winds could bring isolated to scattered pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated to scattered power outages with the threat for more extensive power outages if the snow accumulation is heavy and wet and also higher than currently forecasted.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will likely monitor this storm system with Ops at NWS Taunton possible depending on track and timing of this coastal storm system. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM EDT Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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Blizzard/Storm Coordination Message #5 – Early Tuesday Morning 3/14/17-Early Wednesday Morning 3/15/17 Blizzard/Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Potential Blizzard and Major Winter Storm for Southern New England Late Monday Night through Late Tuesday Night. Preparations for this potential blizzard and major winter storm should be completed late Monday Night/early Tuesday Morning..
..A Blizzard Warning is now in effect from 8 AM to 8 PM EDT for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County RI, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for snow totals of 13-22″ with isolated higher amounts possible, blizzard conditions, thundersnow potential, strong to damaging winds of sustained of 20-35 MPH with gusts of 40-55 MPH with higher wind gusts of 55-60 MPH along coastal areas of Essex County Massachusetts. These winds will likely cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages in addition to the very high snowfall amounts..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 5 AM-3 PM EDT Tuesday for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Bristol, Eastern Kent, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for 6-12″ of snow and a trace of ice, the potential for near blizzard and near whiteout conditions with thundersnow potential and sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts of 55-65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. In this portion of the Winter Storm Warning area, a mix with or change to sleet or rain may occur before the storm ends. The Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Western Kent County RI from 5 AM-3 PM EDT Tuesday for 10-16″ of snow with sustained winds of 20-30 MPH and wind gusts of 40-50 MPH. The wet snow and strong winds will have the potential to cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages. This has the potential to be a high impact event for this area given the weight of wet snow and the strong to damaging wind potential..
..A Winter Storm Warning is in effect from from 5 AM to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts and Southeast Providence County Rhode Island for 10-16″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible, the potential for near blizzard and near whiteout conditions including thundersnow and winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts in the 55-65 MPH range and isolated higher wind gusts possible. The Blizzard Watch for this area has been cancelled. The strong to damaging winds and a potentially wetter and heavier snow will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. This still has the potential to be a higher impact event for this region..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now is in effect for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard from 5 AM to 2 PM EDT Tuesday for 2-4″ of snow with higher amounts possible depending on storm track and a trace of ice. In this area, the amount of snow is the most uncertain and will be more track dependent and depending on track and could result in a significant variation in what actual snowfall will be for this area. There is the potential for a brief period of near blizzard and near whiteout conditions and winds of 35-45 MPH with gusts 60-65 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts possible. The combination of heavy snow that would be a wet snow and strong to damaging winds will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. If snow amounts increase, it will be heavy and wet and would increase the threat for power outages and tree and wire damage..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for Nantucket for 5 AM-Noon EDT for 2-4″ of snow. Snow will change to rain in this area by Noon time..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 8 AM-6 PM Tuesday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island through Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 30-45 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts are also possible. These strong to damaging winds coupled with any wet snowfall will have the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect from 11 AM-3 PM Tuesday for Eastern Essex, Eastern Plymouth, Cape Cod, Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket Island for widespread minor to pockets of moderate coastal flooding at the time of the early Tuesday Afternoon high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Suffolk and Eastern Norfolk County of Massachusetts from 11 AM-3 PM Tuesday for pockets of minor coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Washington County RI from 1000 AM-100 PM Tuesday for minor coastal flooding at the midday high tide cycle..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for late Tuesday Night for Cape Cod particularly north facing areas and expanded to Eastern Essex County for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of that high tide cycle..
..Upgrades to warnings and advisories and other adjustments are likely as we get closer to this potential blizzard/major winter storm..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will occur with this potential blizzard potentially as early as 5-6 AM Tuesday and will last through late Tuesday Night..
..ARES, RACES and Emergency Communications groups should closely monitor the progress of this potential blizzard and seek advice from their local leadership on any potential activation as they get closer to the potential blizzard event..
..Pictures from this major storm event will likely be helpful for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes. They can be sent via our WX1BOX social media Facebook and Twitter feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter or Ham Operator for sending the pictures unless otherwise noted..

The headlines of this coordination message depict the potential for a major winter storm/blizzard for the region based on the current weather model projections. In this update, Winter Storm Warnings and portions of the Blizzard Watch were updated to Blizzard Warnings where stated above and in southern areas of the Blizzard Watch, it was cancelled based on whether all blizzard requirements can be met but in either case, the potential for high impact event is likely given strong to damaging wind potential and the weight of what is expected to be a wet snow in southern parts of the area. Most details are falling into place with the exception of snowfall amounts and precip type over Cape Cod and the Islands and how much mixing occurs around and southeast of the I-95 corridor. The key items to be sorted as we watch the potential for this major winter storm/blizzard include:

1.) Exact storm track is key. There was a wobble west in the models to between the Cape Cod Canal and the Outer Cape/Nantucket with the low center. More wobbles can be expected in the model track. This means the possibility of a bit more mixing and dry slotting in Southeast New England and has led to the current headline changes. Timing the onset of the snow, its expected to start from 4-8 AM Tuesday from southwest to northeast and rapidly become heavy with snowfall rates of 2-4″ per hour expected for several hours. The greatest uncertainty with these track differences is whether or not the Cape and Islands region remains all snow or if there is any mix or change to rain. That will make the difference in the current forecasted 2-4″ of snow for that area or much higher or much lower amounts. For now, a warmer solution is for that area is depicted. For the rest of the region, a widespread 6-12″ is expected southeast of the I-95 corridor with 10-16″ of snow near the I-95 corridor and just to the north of it. A swath of 13-22″ is likely with a isolated higher amounts are likely in the rest of the NWS Taunton Coverage area.
2.) The strong to damaging wind potential of this system is high. The consistency of the snow and how wet it is and whether a zone of heavy wet snow sets up will determine the extent of any tree and wire damage in the region. This will bear close watching and the greatest risk is over Southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and up through the Boston area and into the North Shore. While snow amounts have been lowered slightly in this area, the concern for a heavier, wetter snow has if anything increased since the last update and will bear close watching.
3.) How widespread the blizzard conditions will be and this looks to be widespread across northeast and western and Central Massachusetts through Northern Connecticut and into Northwest Rhode Island. Depending on storm track, this could affect areas a bit to the southeast of the current Blizzard Warning area as well or remain where currently depicted.
4.) Extent of coastal flooding and if the strongest winds coincide with either high tide cycle. This will impact the level of coastal flooding along north and east facing areas. There could also be some impact to the high tide cycle late Tuesday Night. Coastal Flood Warnings/Advisories have been issued along much of East Coastal Massachusetts and Washington County RI for the early Tuesday Afternoon high tide cycle with a Coastal Flood Watch for Cape Cod for the late Tuesday Night high tide cycle that has been expanded to Eastern Essex County Massachusetts.

People should prepare for this major storm similar to other past major winter storms for the region. Have plenty of batteries and battery powered equipment on hand and test out this equipment and any generator equipment. Make sure you have gas for your generator as well. If it turns out that you do not lose power in the storm, you will be better prepared for the next storm system.

Pictures from this major storm event will likely be helpful for situational awareness and disaster intelligence purposes. They can be sent via our WX1BOX social media Facebook and Twitter feeds, as a reply to this message or to the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter or Ham Operator for sending the pictures unless otherwise noted.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will occur with this potential blizzard potentially as early as 5-6 AM Tuesday and will last through late Tuesday Night. ARES, RACES and Emergency Communications groups should closely monitor the progress of this potential blizzard and seek advice from their local leadership on any potential activation as they get closer to the potential blizzard event. This will likely be the last coordination message for this system unless a significant change to the situation occurs and time allows for an update as we shift into operations mode Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning Statement, High Wind Warning Statement, Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory/Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Winter Weather Graphics:

NWS Taunton Blizzard Warning/Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Graphics:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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