Storm Coordination Message #2 – Late Tuesday Night 8/29/17-Wednesday Afternoon 8/30/17

Hello to all…

..The disturbance that was classified as Potential Tropical Cyclone 10 will intensify as a non-tropical entity to become a nor’easter or ocean storm bringing strong to damaging winds and some rainfall to Southeast New England if the system tracks close enough to Southern New England..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to around 50 MPH. These winds will bring isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts around 40 MPH could occur in Southeast Plymouth into Southern Bristol County Massachusetts depending on storm track..
..A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands and expanded to include Washington County Rhode Island through 8 PM Wednesday Evening for high surf and dangerous rip currents for any people going to the beach during this timeframe..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system for tonight through early Wednesday Afternoon..

The disturbance that was potential tropical cyclone 10 will intensify as a non-tropical entity into a nor’easter type ocean storm. Models consensus has been a bit further to the south but still close enough between the low pressure system to the south and high pressure to the north to allow for strong to damaging winds over the Cape and Islands and a period of rain particularly over the Cape and Islands with wind gusts to 40 MPH and light rain possible over Southeast Coastal New England. Rainfall amounts will be less than 1″ in most areas with some rainfall amounts of around 1″ or more on the islands and possibly the Outer Cape. High surf and rip currents will be an issue along the coast.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system for tonight through early Wednesday Afternoon. This will be the last coordination message on this storm system unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs. Below is the NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement, High Surf Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Tuesday Night 8/29/17-Wednesday Afternoon 8/30/17

Hello to all…

..Potential Tropical Cyclone 10 is less likely to become a tropical entity but will intensify to become a nor’easter or hybrid type system bringing strong to damaging winds and some rainfall to Southeast New England if the system tracks close enough to Southern New England..
..A High Wind Watch is in effect for Nantucket Island from late tonight through Wednesday Afternoon for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 50-60 MPH possible. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds will bring isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Wind Gusts around 40 MPH could occur in Southeast Plymouth into Southern Bristol County Massachusetts depending on storm track..
..A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands from 8 PM Tuesday Evening through 8 PM Wednesday Evening for high surf and dangerous rip currents for any people going to the beach during this timeframe..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system for tonight through early Wednesday Afternoon..

Potential tropical cyclone 10, while less likely to become a tropical entity, will intensify as a non-tropical or hybrid system into a nor’easter type coastal storm. Models have been in two camps with one set of reliable models tracking near or inside the 40 North/70 West benchmark while other models are more off shore to the south of the 40 North/70 West benchmark. A consensus blend is being used and currently this is expected to bring some strong to damaging winds to Cape Cod and the Islands with some wind gusts around 40 MPH possible in Southern Bristol and Southeast Plymouth County Massachusetts. Rainfall amounts will be less than 1″ in most areas with some rainfall amounts of around 1″ or more on the islands and possibly the Outer Cape. High surf and rip currents will be an issue along the coast.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system for tonight through early Wednesday Afternoon. An updated coordination message will be posted by 1000 PM EDT Tuesday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton High Wind Watch/Wind Advisory Statement, High Surf Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch and Wind Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Surf Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: Amateur Radio Hurricane Net Activation Information for Hurricane Harvey

Hello to all…

..Amateur Radio Hurricane Nets activating for Hurricane Harvey and his impacts across the Gulf Coast of Texas..
..Amateur Radio Operators in Massachusetts will be providing support to the VoIP Hurricane Net today through Saturday and later this weekend as necessary..
..Links below provide information on various net activations for Hurricane Harvey..

Hurricane Watch Net Activation Plans:
http://www.hwn.org/policies/activationplans.html

VoIP Hurricane Net Activation Plans:
http://www.voipwx.net/node/680

Salvation Army Team Emergency Response Network (SATERN) Southern Territory Net Activation Plans:
http://www.arrl.org/news/southern-territory-satern-net-to-activate-on-saturday-august-26-for-hurricane-harvey

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday Evening 8/22/17-Wednesday 8/23/17 Early Morning Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch #463 in effect through 1200 AM EDT Wednesday Morning for Berkshire, Hampden, Hampshire and Franklin Counties of Massachusetts and Litchfield County Connecticut. Areas in and close to the watch area should monitor for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding as the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in the Severe Thunderstorm Watch area. SPC continues a slight to marginal risk for severe weather across western and central New England area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is now active and will remain active through and possibly after 1200 AM EDT for severe weather potential..

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are moving through New York State and Pennsylvania and will sweep through Southern New England late tonight through the first part of the overnight hours Wednesday Morning. The key on the severe weather potential will be the level of instability that remains during overnight with the forcing of the cold front and the stronger wind shear that will be moving into the area later tonight into the first part of the overnight hours Wednesday Morning. Across Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island, the severe weather threat should be less given the timeframe of the frontal passage and waning instability despite favorable shear values but these areas will also be monitored in case the shear, jet dynamics and frontal forcing allows it to overcome the unfavorable frontal timing and waning instability.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton is now active and will remain active through and possibly after 1200 AM EDT for severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message now that we are in operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch statement including NWS Taunton Watch County notification and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch statement including NWS Taunton Watch County notification:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0463.html
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus61.KBOX.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 8/22/17 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night particularly across Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather further west in New York State..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible anytime after 4 PM Tuesday Afternoon..

Heat and humidity will be entrenched over Southern New England Tuesday with a cold front approaching and moving through New York State Tuesday Evening and sweeping across Southern New England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning. Wind shear will be sufficient for severe weather potential. Instability is a bit more in question though some models have trended toward higher instability in later runs. The other question will be the forcing of the cold front and if that will reach Southern New England with sufficient instability to tap into for severe weather potential to be realized or if the wind shear can compensate for a lower level of instability in Southern New England.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible anytime after 4 PM Tuesday Afternoon. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170821_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: Solar Eclipse Safety and Additional Information – Monday 8/21/17

Hello to all…

The Solar Eclipse is today, Monday August 21st, 2017. This special announcement is to cover information regarding the Solar Eclipse including timing of the eclipse, Safety Information and other resource information including NASA webcast information and ways to view the solar eclipse via GOES Satellite system:

Solar Eclipse 2017 Information (Includes links to Safety Information within these main links):
https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/eclipse.html
https://www.nasa.gov/eclipse2017
https://eclipse2017.nasa.gov/

Solar Eclipse Safety Information (Direct link to Safety Information):
https://www.nasa.gov/content/eye-safety-during-a-total-solar-eclipse

Here’s a list of links to watch the shadow from GOES Satellite System:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/shadow.html

https://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/#/animation?satellite=goes-16
or
http://re.ssec.wisc.edu/?products=G16-ABI-CONUS-BAND03.74,Eclipse.100&center=33.951939696815316,-92.5543357429688&zoom=4&width=1058&height=772&timeproduct=G16-ABI-CONUS-BAND03&timespan=-6t&animationspeed=50

We hope people who have the time to view the solar eclipse event do so safely and hope people find this information useful for today’s event.

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Special Announcement: 26th Anniversary of Hurricane Bob – 8/19/91 and Flash Flood Event on Cape Cod Saturday 8/19/17

Hello to all…

Saturday August 19th 1991 marks the 26th anniversary of Hurricane Bob. Hurricane Bob affected Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island as the last landfalling hurricane in Southern New England. Information on Hurricane Bob can be seen at the following link and we have also provided a link to the KA1WBH-ML Baron West Island Weather Station Hurricane Bob Video and Picture Archive:

26th Anniversary of Hurricane Bob – 8/19/91:
https://www.weather.gov/box/hurricane_bob

Hurricane Bob Photos and Videos from the KA1WBH-ML Baron West Island Weather station web site:
http://www.westislandweather.com/hurricanebob1991.htm

Fast forwarding to Saturday August 19th 2017, a significant flash flood event with 4-8″+ of rain fell over portions of Cape Cod and the Islands with 2-4″ of rain in other parts of South Coastal Massachusetts and the western portions of Cape Cod and the northern part of Martha’s Vineyard. Any additional reports of flooding, rainfall and pictures/videos of flooding or flood damage post event can be sent as a reply to this email via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feed or to the email address pics@nsradio.org. Below is summary NWS Taunton Local Storm Report/Public Information Statement information and a link to the WX1BOX Amateur Radio log of reports:

NWS Taunton Local Storm Report:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nwus51.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Public Information Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.nous41.KBOX.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Log of Reports:
http://www.wx1box.org/local/reports_8_18_8_19_17.txt

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday August 18th, 2017 Severe Weather/Flood Potential

Hello to all…

..Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds, and frequent lightning are possible today across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut today. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are also possible in other parts of interior Southern New England from Boston to Providence north and west this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has placed much of Southern New England from Boston to Providence north and west in a slight risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible any time after Noon today to monitor severe weather and flood potential..

At 710 AM, Doppler Radar showed a line of showers and embedded heavier downpours along the New York/Massachusetts/Connecticut line moving east to east-northeastward and will be the first round of rainfall. Radar also shows another area behind that and as the warm front continues to lift northeastward, dewpoints will climb significantly. Cloud cover will likely be extensive throughout the day but some breaks in the cloud cover could allows for some further destabilization in the atmosphere between the current showers and heavier downpours and the next expected round of showers and thunderstorms later in the day. Wind shear profiles will be sufficient for an isolated severe weather threat across Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut and the wind shear profiles and high dewpoints will have the potential for thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall across much of interior Southern New England from Boston to Providence north and west. The headlines cover the areas affected. The tropical air mass and strong wind shear profiles may also mean a low risk for an isolated tornado in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are possible any time after Noon today to monitor severe weather and flood potential. This will likely be the only complete coordination message on the severe weather and flood potential. A shortened coordination message will be issued if time allows and Ops at NWS Taunton are initiated. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Experimental Hazardous Weather Outlook, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook and WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

WPC Day-1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday August 5th, 2017 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Saturday mid-morning lasting through early evening across Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban to poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued the region in a Marginal Risk for severe weather for today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1000 AM EDT with SKYWARN Self-Activation monitoring the first round of activity until 1000 AM EDT..

At 850 AM, Doppler Radar was showing the first cluster of thunderstorms moving through Central Massachusetts and East-Central Connecticut. This activity will swing northeast through Southern New England from mid-morning to early afternoon with an isolated severe thunderstorm risk. Depending on instability and timing of the actual cold front currently back in Eastern New York, a second round of activity could occur in the mid-afternoon through early evening hours which may also have the potential for isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms. The extent of the severe weather threat will be determined by the timing of the cold front into the region and cloud cover from the first round of convection and how intense either that first round of convection will be as it destabilizes to some extent as the storms move further northeast or if the second round of convection can form and whether it will be more significant.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence by 1000 AM EDT with SKYWARN Self-Activation monitoring the first round of activity until 1000 AM EDT. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Special Weather Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1708050756.wwus81.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday August 5th, 2017 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Saturday possibly as early as mid to late morning lasting through early evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban to poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the region in a Marginal Risk for severe weather with the potential for an upgrade to slight risk in future outlooks..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely on Saturday potentially starting as early as 9 AM or as late as Noon lasting through early evening to monitor severe weather potential..

Saturday will bring a cold front through Southern New England ending the recent heat and humidity over the region. There could be potentially two rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms one in the mid-morning to early afternoon and then a second round in the mid-afternoon to early evening. The extent of the severe weather threat will be determined by the timing of the cold front into the region and cloud cover from the first round of convection and how intense either that first round of convection will be or if the second round of convection will be more significant.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton are likely on Saturday potentially starting as early as 9 AM or as late as Noon lasting through early evening to monitor severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Saturday. Below is the NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2017/day2otlk_20170804_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box


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