Storm Coordination Message #1 – Thursday Night 3/1/18 Through Saturday Afternoon 3/3/18 Storm Event

Hello to all…

..Powerful and long duration coastal storm will bring the potential for multiple and potentially significant coastal flooding to East Coastal Massachusetts along with the potential for strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall that could lead to urban, poor drainage and potentially river and stream flooding and rain changing to snow in some areas over the course of the storm event Thursday Night through Saturday..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands from Friday Morning to Saturday Afternoon for the potential of moderate to major coastal flooding over multiple high tide cycles..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect from Friday Morning through Saturday Afternoon for all of Central and Eastern Massachusetts from Worcester County eastward through the Cape and Islands and all of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated to scattered higher wind gusts likely. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire coverage of NWS Taunton from Friday Morning through Saturday Morning for 1-3 inches of rainfall with isolated higher rainfall amounts of 4″. This rainfall could produce urban and small stream flooding as well as urban and poor drainage flooding..
..Rain could change to snow in western parts of the coverage area leading to a small snow accumulation. This aspect is lowest confidence and could change as we get closer to the event..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely for much of Friday and again on Saturday with timeframes to be determined as we get closer to the event..

Model solutions are converging on a storm track just offshore of the Southern New England coastline but close enough to get the region into significant impacts from coastal flooding which could hit major category in multiple locations, damaging wind gusts causing isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and small river and stream flooding. The headlines reflect the current thinking. Factors for consideration:

1.) Winds could be stronger than currently listed in the High Wind Watch area and the exact areas for the strongest wind gusts will be better defined in future updates.
2.) This is likely to be one of the bigger coastal flood episodes for East Coastal Massachusetts particularly when considering the multiple tide cycles and higher astronomical tides. This will bear close watching and preparations in this area should start and be completed by Thursday Night.
3.) Heavy rainfall could lead to urban and poor drainage flooding as well as street flooding. If the heavier rainfall occurs over East Coastal Massachusetts, this could cause further flooding issues in the coastal areas.
4.) Lowest confidence in this forecast is regarding any rain changing to snow potential. This should become better defined in future updates.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely for much of Friday and again on Saturday with timeframes to be determined as we get closer to the event. Below is the NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall Maps and NWS Facebook storm briefing post:

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Taunton Facebook Storm Briefing Post:

https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.1639867456107619/1639865366107828/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box


Hello to all…

..Powerful and long duration coastal storm will bring the potential for multiple and potentially significant coastal flooding to East Coastal Massachusetts along with the potential for strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall that could lead to urban, poor drainage and potentially river and stream flooding and rain changing to snow in some areas over the course of the storm event Thursday Night through Saturday..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands from Friday Morning to Saturday Afternoon for the potential of moderate to major coastal flooding over multiple high tide cycles..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect from Friday Morning through Saturday Afternoon for all of Central and Eastern Massachusetts from Worcester County eastward through the Cape and Islands and all of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated to scattered higher wind gusts likely. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for the entire coverage of NWS Taunton from Friday Morning through Saturday Morning for 1-3 inches of rainfall with isolated higher rainfall amounts of 4″. This rainfall could produce urban and small stream flooding as well as urban and poor drainage flooding..
..Rain could change to snow in western parts of the coverage area leading to a small snow accumulation. This aspect is lowest confidence and could change as we get closer to the event..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely for much of Friday and again on Saturday with timeframes to be determined as we get closer to the event..

Model solutions are converging on a storm track just offshore of the Southern New England coastline but close enough to get the region into significant impacts from coastal flooding which could hit major category in multiple locations, damaging wind gusts causing isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and small river and stream flooding. The headlines reflect the current thinking. Factors for consideration:

1.) Winds could be stronger than currently listed in the High Wind Watch area and the exact areas for the strongest wind gusts will be better defined in future updates.
2.) This is likely to be one of the bigger coastal flood episodes for East Coastal Massachusetts particularly when considering the multiple tide cycles and higher astronomical tides. This will bear close watching and preparations in this area should start and be completed by Thursday Night.
3.) Heavy rainfall could lead to urban and poor drainage flooding as well as street flooding. If the heavier rainfall occurs over East Coastal Massachusetts, this could cause further flooding issues in the coastal areas.
4.) Lowest confidence in this forecast is regarding any rain changing to snow potential. This should become better defined in future updates.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton likely for much of Friday and again on Saturday with timeframes to be determined as we get closer to the event. Below is the NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Watch Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall Maps and NWS Facebook storm briefing post:

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Taunton Facebook Storm Briefing Post:

https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.1639867456107619/1639865366107828/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box


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