Storm Coordination Message #4 – Wednesday Morning 3/21/18-Thursday Morning 3/22/18 Major Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Unfortunately, yet another nor’easter, the 4th nor’easter this month, is on target and taking aim on Southern New England Wednesday Morning into Thursday Morning with potential significant impacts from heavy snowfall and potentially a wet snowfall, strong to damaging winds and a greater risk for one to two tide cycles of minor to moderate coastal flooding due to higher astronomical tides..
..Uncertainty has increased in exact snowfall amounts due to spread in the models on where the northwest cutoff of the snow is and possible mixed precipitation type issues for some coastal areas particularly Cape Cod and the Islands and the possibility dry air causes lighter precipitation. For now, the current forecast continues. Worst conditions for snow and wind will be from late this afternoon through Wednesday Night..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 8 AM Wednesday through 8 AM Thursday for Northern Connecticut, all of Rhode Island, Southern Worcester, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts for 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. In Barnstable County, the highest amounts will be closer to the Cape Cod Canal. The snow will be heavy and wet and with wind gusts in western interior areas to 35 MPH and central to eastern areas of 40-55 MPH with higher gusts to 60 MPH possible in coastal areas, isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages are likely..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 2 PM Wednesday through 8 AM Thursday for Essex, Northern Worcester, North-Central Middlesex and Hampden Counties Massachusetts for 3-6″ of snow. Franklin and Hampshire Counties are expected to get 1-3″ of snow with similar amounts on Nantucket where Nantucket sees mixed precipitation..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 8 AM Wednesday through Noon Thursday for Cape Cod and the Islands. A High Wind Warning is in effect from 8 AM Wednesday through 8 AM Thursday for Block Island RI. The High Wind Warnings are for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds along with wet snow accumulation could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM Thursday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and a Wind Advisory is now in effect from 11 AM Wednesday through 8 AM Thursday for Eastern Essex, Eastern Norfolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts. The wind advisories are for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds along with wet snow accumulation could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for the late Wednesday Night high tide cycle for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of this high tide cycle and the Thursday Afternoon tide cycle may also be impacted as well. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Eastern Essex, Eastern Norfolk and Suffolk Counties from Midnight to 6 AM Thursday for minor coastal flooding of shore roads..
..SKYWARN Activation is likely Wednesday into Thursday for this system. With the NWS office move, Ops will be handled from home stations for this storm event. No changes to reporting methods will be made. The statements and reports may have less reports than normal. Social media/emails with reports collected into the WX1BOX team will be disseminated to help provide situational awareness given the office move affected reports in NWS statements. Pictures and videos from this storm system can be sent in as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the pictures/videos..

Unfortunately, another nor’easter is taking aim on Southern New England. Track guidance overnight as struggled to coalesce further with a wide variation in the northwest cutoff of precipitation as well as the amount of dry air that could get entrenched over the area and where that ends up along with mixed precipitation issues over the coastal areas particularly Cape Cod and the Islands. Also the heaviest snow is expected towards late afternoon and Wednesday Night from southwest to northeast across the area. The headlines provide the current thinking which is little changed from prior updates. Key items for this storm system:

1.) Track guidance is close enough to the coast means higher snow amounts but along and south of the Mass Pike based on a track south and east of the benchmark currently. It also means more snow across South Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard with a setup between the strong to damaging winds and wet snow for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. The Winter Storm Watch for North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts has been changed to a Winter Weather Advisory. There still could be more changes to the forecast given model spread on heaviest precipitation, dry air and mixed precipitation.
2.) The astronomical high tides are higher so that means a bit higher risk for at least minor to moderate coastal flooding on the Wednesday Night high tide cycle and possibly affecting the Thursday afternoon high tide cycle as well. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect now for Northeast Coastal Massachusetts while a Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for Eastern Plymouth County, Cape Cod and Nantucket as it isn’t clear for the watch area whether coastal flooding will be more minor in nature or if it will remain in the moderate category.
3.) The strong to damaging winds and potentially heavy wet snow could cause another round of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. The current track and intensity support this scenario in areas where Winter Storm Warnings and Wind Advisories/High Wind Warnings are in effect.

SKYWARN Activation is likely Wednesday into Thursday for this system. With the NWS office move, Ops will be handled from home stations for this storm event. No changes to reporting methods will be made. The statements and reports may have less reports than normal. Social media/emails with reports collected into the WX1BOX team will be disseminated to help provide situational awareness given the office move affected reports in NWS statements. Pictures and videos from this storm system can be sent in as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the pictures/videos. Another coordination message will be posted by 7 AM Wednesday Morning.

Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Watch/Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall Maps and Facebook briefing:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch/Advisory Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Taunton Facebook Storm Briefing:

https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.1662619443832420/1662618757165822/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box


Hello to all…

..Unfortunately, yet another nor’easter, the 4th nor’easter this month, is on target and taking aim on Southern New England Wednesday Morning into Thursday Morning with potential significant impacts from heavy snowfall and potentially a wet snowfall, strong to damaging winds and a greater risk for one to two tide cycles of minor to moderate coastal flooding due to higher astronomical tides..
..Uncertainty has increased in exact snowfall amounts due to spread in the models on where the northwest cutoff of the snow is and possible mixed precipitation type issues for some coastal areas particularly Cape Cod and the Islands and the possibility dry air causes lighter precipitation. For now, the current forecast continues. Worst conditions for snow and wind will be from late this afternoon through Wednesday Night..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 8 AM Wednesday through 8 AM Thursday for Northern Connecticut, all of Rhode Island, Southern Worcester, Suffolk, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk, Bristol, Plymouth, Barnstable and Dukes Counties of Massachusetts for 5-10″ of snow with isolated higher amounts possible. In Barnstable County, the highest amounts will be closer to the Cape Cod Canal. The snow will be heavy and wet and with wind gusts in western interior areas to 35 MPH and central to eastern areas of 40-55 MPH with higher gusts to 60 MPH possible in coastal areas, isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages are likely..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 2 PM Wednesday through 8 AM Thursday for Essex, Northern Worcester, North-Central Middlesex and Hampden Counties Massachusetts for 3-6″ of snow. Franklin and Hampshire Counties are expected to get 1-3″ of snow with similar amounts on Nantucket where Nantucket sees mixed precipitation..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 8 AM Wednesday through Noon Thursday for Cape Cod and the Islands. A High Wind Warning is in effect from 8 AM Wednesday through 8 AM Thursday for Block Island RI. The High Wind Warnings are for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds along with wet snow accumulation could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM Thursday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and a Wind Advisory is now in effect from 11 AM Wednesday through 8 AM Thursday for Eastern Essex, Eastern Norfolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts. The wind advisories are for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds along with wet snow accumulation could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for the late Wednesday Night high tide cycle for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of this high tide cycle and the Thursday Afternoon tide cycle may also be impacted as well. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Eastern Essex, Eastern Norfolk and Suffolk Counties from Midnight to 6 AM Thursday for minor coastal flooding of shore roads..
..SKYWARN Activation is likely Wednesday into Thursday for this system. With the NWS office move, Ops will be handled from home stations for this storm event. No changes to reporting methods will be made. The statements and reports may have less reports than normal. Social media/emails with reports collected into the WX1BOX team will be disseminated to help provide situational awareness given the office move affected reports in NWS statements. Pictures and videos from this storm system can be sent in as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the pictures/videos..

Unfortunately, another nor’easter is taking aim on Southern New England. Track guidance overnight as struggled to coalesce further with a wide variation in the northwest cutoff of precipitation as well as the amount of dry air that could get entrenched over the area and where that ends up along with mixed precipitation issues over the coastal areas particularly Cape Cod and the Islands. Also the heaviest snow is expected towards late afternoon and Wednesday Night from southwest to northeast across the area. The headlines provide the current thinking which is little changed from prior updates. Key items for this storm system:

1.) Track guidance is close enough to the coast means higher snow amounts but along and south of the Mass Pike based on a track south and east of the benchmark currently. It also means more snow across South Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard with a setup between the strong to damaging winds and wet snow for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. The Winter Storm Watch for North-Central and Northeast Massachusetts has been changed to a Winter Weather Advisory. There still could be more changes to the forecast given model spread on heaviest precipitation, dry air and mixed precipitation.
2.) The astronomical high tides are higher so that means a bit higher risk for at least minor to moderate coastal flooding on the Wednesday Night high tide cycle and possibly affecting the Thursday afternoon high tide cycle as well. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect now for Northeast Coastal Massachusetts while a Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for Eastern Plymouth County, Cape Cod and Nantucket as it isn’t clear for the watch area whether coastal flooding will be more minor in nature or if it will remain in the moderate category.
3.) The strong to damaging winds and potentially heavy wet snow could cause another round of isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. The current track and intensity support this scenario in areas where Winter Storm Warnings and Wind Advisories/High Wind Warnings are in effect.

SKYWARN Activation is likely Wednesday into Thursday for this system. With the NWS office move, Ops will be handled from home stations for this storm event. No changes to reporting methods will be made. The statements and reports may have less reports than normal. Social media/emails with reports collected into the WX1BOX team will be disseminated to help provide situational awareness given the office move affected reports in NWS statements. Pictures and videos from this storm system can be sent in as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the pictures/videos. Another coordination message will be posted by 7 AM Wednesday Morning.

Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Watch/Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall Maps and Facebook briefing:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch/Advisory Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Taunton Facebook Storm Briefing:

https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.1662619443832420/1662618757165822/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box


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