Storm Coordination Message #5 – Reduction of Storm Impacts – Wednesday Night 3/21/18-Thursday Morning 3/22/18

Hello to all…

..Nor’easter causing strong winds in Southeast New England but snowfall and bands of precipitation weaker than expected due to dry air with some mixed precipitation issues at the coast and Southeast New England causing lighter snowfall amounts. Winter Storm Warnings have been reduced to Winter Weather Advisories in the region. Minor Coastal Flooding still expected at the 4 AM high tide cycle and strong winds are expected to continue overnight..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect through 8 AM Thursday for Windham County Connecticut, Rhode Island, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 2-5″ of wet snow. The wet snow and strong winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect through 8 AM for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard for 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts possible by the Cape Cod Canal. The wet snow and strong winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages if snowfall reaches 3-4″..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 8 AM for Hartford and Tolland County CT, Worcester, Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow. The Winter Weather Advisory for Hampden County Massachusetts is cancelled with less than an inch of snow expected..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect through Noon Thursday for Cape Cod and the Islands and through 8 AM Thursday for Block Island RI. The High Wind Warnings are for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds along with wet snow accumulation could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect through 8 AM Thursday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Eastern Essex, Eastern Norfolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts. The wind advisories are for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds along with any wet snow accumulation could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Eastern Essex, Eastern Norfolk, Suffolk, Barnstable and Nantucket Counties from Midnight to 6 AM Thursday for minor coastal flooding of shore roads..
..SKYWARN Activation will monitor the storm through Thursday Morning. With the NWS office move, Ops will be handled from home stations for this storm event. No changes to reporting methods will be made. The statements and reports may have less reports than normal. Social media/emails with reports collected into the WX1BOX team will be disseminated to help provide situational awareness given the office move affected reports in NWS statements. Pictures and videos from this storm system can be sent in as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the pictures/videos..

Dry air in the mid levels and mixed precipitation have kept snowfall amounts lower than forecast and this message is being sent to update for lower snowfall amounts and Winter Storm Warnings being downgraded to Winter Weather Advisories for those areas. Accumulating snowfall is still likely overnight but will likely be less than forecast. With strong winds in Southeast New England, if snowfall totals of 3″ or more occur, there will be the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages but not like the last 3 nor’easters we have had recently.

As for why the snowfall amounts were lower and storm impacts were less than expected, the forecast models were having a very difficult time handling the amount of dry air in the mid-levels with some models forecasting less dry air in those mid-levels and other models calling for the dry air to hold on for lesser snow amounts. Models also struggled with temperatures and any cooling from heavier precipitation resulting in another forecast complication. High resolution models had some handle on this but even with those models, there was spread in the guidance. Normally, when coming close to storm impacts, models coalesce on this solution. For this storm system, there was divergence. This is similar to the late January “surprise” snowstorm where the model guidance did not have a good handle on current trends and led to a forecast with lower snow totals than realized. For this nor’easter, the reverse occurred. Spotter reports of less snow accumulation and mixed precipitation provided ground truth to help guide the forecast and snowfall amounts to the lower numbers.

SKYWARN Activation will monitor the storm through Thursday Morning.  With the NWS office move, Ops will be handled from home stations for this storm event. No changes to reporting methods will be made. The statements and reports may have less reports than normal. Social media/emails with reports collected into the WX1BOX team will be disseminated to help provide situational awareness given the office move affected reports in NWS statements. Pictures and videos from this storm system can be sent in as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the pictures/videos. This will be the last coordination message on this storm system.

Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Snowfall Maps:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box


Hello to all…

..Nor’easter causing strong winds in Southeast New England but snowfall and bands of precipitation weaker than expected due to dry air with some mixed precipitation issues at the coast and Southeast New England causing lighter snowfall amounts. Winter Storm Warnings have been reduced to Winter Weather Advisories in the region. Minor Coastal Flooding still expected at the 4 AM high tide cycle and strong winds are expected to continue overnight..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect through 8 AM Thursday for Windham County Connecticut, Rhode Island, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 2-5″ of wet snow. The wet snow and strong winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect through 8 AM for Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard for 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts possible by the Cape Cod Canal. The wet snow and strong winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages if snowfall reaches 3-4″..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 8 AM for Hartford and Tolland County CT, Worcester, Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow. The Winter Weather Advisory for Hampden County Massachusetts is cancelled with less than an inch of snow expected..
..A High Wind Warning remains in effect through Noon Thursday for Cape Cod and the Islands and through 8 AM Thursday for Block Island RI. The High Wind Warnings are for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds along with wet snow accumulation could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect through 8 AM Thursday for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Eastern Essex, Eastern Norfolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts. The wind advisories are for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds along with any wet snow accumulation could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Eastern Essex, Eastern Norfolk, Suffolk, Barnstable and Nantucket Counties from Midnight to 6 AM Thursday for minor coastal flooding of shore roads..
..SKYWARN Activation will monitor the storm through Thursday Morning. With the NWS office move, Ops will be handled from home stations for this storm event. No changes to reporting methods will be made. The statements and reports may have less reports than normal. Social media/emails with reports collected into the WX1BOX team will be disseminated to help provide situational awareness given the office move affected reports in NWS statements. Pictures and videos from this storm system can be sent in as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the pictures/videos..

Dry air in the mid levels and mixed precipitation have kept snowfall amounts lower than forecast and this message is being sent to update for lower snowfall amounts and Winter Storm Warnings being downgraded to Winter Weather Advisories for those areas. Accumulating snowfall is still likely overnight but will likely be less than forecast. With strong winds in Southeast New England, if snowfall totals of 3″ or more occur, there will be the potential for isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages but not like the last 3 nor’easters we have had recently.

As for why the snowfall amounts were lower and storm impacts were less than expected, the forecast models were having a very difficult time handling the amount of dry air in the mid-levels with some models forecasting less dry air in those mid-levels and other models calling for the dry air to hold on for lesser snow amounts. Models also struggled with temperatures and any cooling from heavier precipitation resulting in another forecast complication. High resolution models had some handle on this but even with those models, there was spread in the guidance. Normally, when coming close to storm impacts, models coalesce on this solution. For this storm system, there was divergence. This is similar to the late January “surprise” snowstorm where the model guidance did not have a good handle on current trends and led to a forecast with lower snow totals than realized. For this nor’easter, the reverse occurred. Spotter reports of less snow accumulation and mixed precipitation provided ground truth to help guide the forecast and snowfall amounts to the lower numbers.

SKYWARN Activation will monitor the storm through Thursday Morning.  With the NWS office move, Ops will be handled from home stations for this storm event. No changes to reporting methods will be made. The statements and reports may have less reports than normal. Social media/emails with reports collected into the WX1BOX team will be disseminated to help provide situational awareness given the office move affected reports in NWS statements. Pictures and videos from this storm system can be sent in as a reply to this email, via the WX1BOX Facebook/Twitter feeds or via the email address pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the spotter/Amateur Radio Operator for the pictures/videos. This will be the last coordination message on this storm system.

Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Snowfall Maps:

NWS Taunton Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:

http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box


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