Storm Coordination Message #2 – Thursday Night 3/1/18 Through Saturday Afternoon 3/3/18 Storm Event

Hello to all…

..Powerful and long duration coastal storm will bring the potential for multiple high tide cycles of potentially significant coastal flooding to East Coastal Massachusetts along with the potential for strong to damaging winds including hurricane force wind gusts for Cape Cod and the Islands, heavy rainfall that could lead to urban, poor drainage and potentially river and stream flooding and rain changing to snow with the potential now for significant snow accumulations in portions of interior Southern New England. The potential for heavy snow is a change since the last update and the lowest confidence portion of the forecast..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands from Friday Morning to Saturday Afternoon for the potential of moderate to major coastal flooding over multiple high tide cycles..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM Saturday for Eastern Kent, Southeast Providence, Bristol, Newport and Washington Counties of Rhode Island including Block Island and Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-40 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH. These winds will cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM Saturday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 75 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause scattered to numerous pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered to numerous power outages..
..A High Wind Watch remains in effect from Friday Morning through Saturday Afternoon for Western Kent and Northwest Providence Counties of Rhode Island and Worcester, Middlesex and Essex Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 65 MPH. These winds will have the potential to cause scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages..
..A Flood Watch remains in effect for Northern Connecticut, all of Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts from Southern Worcester and Central Middlesex Counties eastward to the coast line from Friday Morning through Saturday Morning for 1-3 inches of rainfall with isolated higher rainfall amounts of 4″. This rainfall could produce urban and small stream flooding as well as urban and poor drainage flooding. Western portions of the region were dropped from the Flood Watch as more heavy wet snow is expected in these areas..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Late Tonight through Late Friday Night for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties of Massachusetts for 4-7″ of snow. A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Friday Afternoon through Saturday Morning for Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 2-6″ of snow with isolated higher amounts. The heavy wet snow combined with strong winds could cause pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. These snow totals could be subject to significant revisions and is the lowest confidence portion of the forecast..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence Friday Morning lasting through Saturday Afternoon. Overnight Ops are possible..

Model solutions are converging on a storm track just offshore of the Southern New England coastline but close enough to get the region into significant impacts from coastal flooding which could hit major category in multiple locations, damaging wind gusts causing isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and scattered power outages and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and small river and stream flooding. The track is slightly further offshore and this has increased the risk for heavy wet snow and coupled with strong winds could cause power outages in interior locations of the newly issued Winter Storm Watch area. The headlines reflect the current thinking. Factors for consideration:

1.) Given model trends and the potential for very strong to damaging winds, high wind warnings have been posted and the potential for hurricane force wind gusts over Cape Cod and the Islands and possibly other parts of the coast line with wind gusts as high as 65 MPH further inland.
2.) This is likely to be one of the bigger coastal flood episodes for East Coastal Massachusetts particularly when considering the multiple tide cycles and higher astronomical tides. This will bear close watching and preparations in this area should start and be completed by Thursday Night into early Friday Morning. The worst tides are likely to be late Friday Night and midday Saturday though minor coastal flooding will occur in the late Friday Morning tide cycle based on current models.
3.) Heavy rainfall could lead to urban and poor drainage flooding as well as street flooding. If the heavier rainfall occurs over East Coastal Massachusetts, this could cause further flooding issues in the coastal areas.
4.) Lowest confidence in this forecast is regarding any rain changing to snow potential. Winter Storm Watches have been posted in areas that could see around or over 6″ of snow and with it being a heavy wet snow, this is likely to produce pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages causing damage. The trend in the models has been for colder temperatures and more snow in the interior and could possibly get into portions of Eastern Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut as well. This will likely have the most revisions leading up to the storm and will bear close watching for further changes.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Taunton will commence Friday Morning lasting through Saturday Afternoon. Overnight Ops are possible. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Thursday Evening. Below is the NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, High Wind Warning/Watch Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snowfall Maps and NWS Facebook storm briefing post:

NWS Taunton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton High Wind Warning/Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Taunton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Taunton Snowfall Maps:
http://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Taunton Facebook Storm Briefing Post:

https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.1640397302721301/1640395822721449/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box


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