Severe Weather & Heat Coordination Message #1

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity will grip the region on Monday. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 1-7 PM EDT for Hartford County Connecticut, Eastern Hampden, Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts for heat indices of around 100 degrees. People both in the heat advisory area and outside of the heat advisory area should take precautions against the heat and drink plenty of liquids for Monday..
..Along with the heat and humidity will be the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms during the Monday Late Afternoon and Evening timeframe with strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall which could cause urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has portions of interior northwest, north-central and northeast Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut and Northwest Rode Island in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather in the late Monday Afternoon/Evening timeframe..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible late Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening..

Intense heat and humidity will grip the region Monday into Monday Night. This will result in high heat conditions with a heat advisory for portions of Southern New England as depicted in the headlines. Even in areas outside of the heat advisory areas precautions against the heat should be taken.

With the heat and humidity, a cold front will be approaching the region from north and west. There will be a reasonable level of instability and sufficient strong wind fields to allow for multi-cell clusters/lines or a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to develop in northern New England and moving south and east into the region towards late afternoon and evening. Two key items to determine the extent and coverage of any strong to severe thunderstorms:

1.) Cooling aloft in the atmosphere is marginal and this could make the thunderstorms more widely scattered from a strong to severe perspective. Other factors including a very moisture laden atmosphere could offset this condition.
2.) The timing of the cold front or a possible pre-frontal boundary making its way across the region to allow for forcing a trigger to take advantage of the level of instability and sufficient wind fields in the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible late Monday Afternoon into Monday Evening. Another coordination message will be issued by 930 AM ET Monday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Convective Day-2 Outlook:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180617_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Assistant Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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