Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 8/17/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely across interior Southern New England from Friday mid-afternoon through late Friday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather and Eastern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely starting around 1-2 PM lasting through late Friday Evening..
At 1010 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of rainfall associated with the warm front that will swing through the area late this morning through mid-afternoon. This activity may intensify and produce a couple isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Behind this area and behind the warm front and ahead of a cold front/trough, another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible assuming sufficient heating and destabilization and shear and jet dynamics will increase a bit behind the warm front and head of the cold front/trough. This would start toward the late afternoon and early evening timeframe lasting through late evening. The headlines cover this well. It is noted that there is a secondary threat for an isolated/brief tornado in this setup given the proximity of the warm front, increasing jet dynamics and wind aloft through evening presuming sufficient heating and destabilization.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely starting around 1-2 PM lasting through late Friday Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 8/17/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely across interior Southern New England from Friday mid-afternoon through late Friday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather and Eastern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely starting around 1-2 PM lasting through late Friday Evening. A more complete coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Flash Flood/Coastal Flood Potential – Saturday 8/11/18

Hello to all…

..Heavy Rainfall from convective heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms may cause flooding of urban and poor drainage areas and smaller streams and rivers across Southern New England today through tonight. There is also the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide around midnight tonight. There is a low risk for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm as well but the main threat is flooding today..
..A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for Northern Connecticut, all of Rhode Island and Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands for the potential of flash flooding of urban and poor drainage areas as well as some smaller rivers and streams..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect from 10 PM Saturday Evening to 2 AM Sunday Morning for East Coastal Massachusetts including Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will be monitoring the situation starting at 830 AM today lasting throughout the day and evening..

A stalled out frontal boundary coupled with waves along the frontal boundary will set the stage for convective heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms. As those heavy showers and thunderstorms train over the same area, it will set the stage for the potential of flooding across those areas. Not all areas will see flooding but those areas that see persistent heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms training over the same area will be the locations that see flooding. There is also the low risk for an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm. The scenario is not quite as potent as last Saturday but something that will also bear watching in addition to flooding. There is also the potential for minor coastal flooding at the time of high tide late Saturday Night. The headlines detail the Flash Flood Watch and Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for the area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will be monitoring the situation starting at 830 AM today lasting throughout the day and evening. This will be the only coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston Norton Flash Flood Watch statement, Coastal Flood Advisory, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 8/7/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible this Tuesday afternoon and evening with strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has Western, Central and Northeast Massachusetts, Connecticut and the Northwest corner of Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton started at 200 PM to monitor the threat. Coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms will be contingent on somewhat stronger wind fields aloft extending into portions of Southern New England with the intense instability currently in place. This will be the only coordination message as we are in operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential – Saturday 8/4/18

Hello to all…

..Convective Showers and Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are expected this morning through early evening across Southern New England. Isolated severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are possible as we get into the late Saturday Morning through early Saturday Evening timeframe. An isolated/brief tornado cannot be ruled out as well. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather through early evening..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Bristol, Kent, Providence and Washington Counties of Rhode Island, and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, and North-Central Bristol Counties of Massachusetts for 1-2″ per hour rainfall rates potentially causing urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions today. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible depending on how the situation evolves..

The last day for convective chances for a couple days will occur today. A weak cold front and meso low will move across the area today. Doppler Radar at 725 AM shows a line of heavy downpours, convective showers and isolated thunderstorms extending from Southern New Jersey to Northern New England with the meso low forming in Southern New Jersey. The activity is moving northeastward. If convective showers and thunderstorms can train over the same area, it will lead to greater risk of flooding and flash flooding hence the Flash Flood Watch headlines for much of Southern New England as depicted above. The other risk is for Isolated Severe Thunderstorms. Despite cloud cover from the line of convective showers, downpours, the meso low in Southern New Jersey may enhance instability to allow for isolated severe thunderstorms with a strong to damaging wind risk and possibly an isolated/brief tornado. For this region, SPC has the region in a marginal risk of severe weather for today.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions today. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible depending on how the situation evolves. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are initiated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 8/3/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible again today across Western and North-Central Massachusetts possibly extending into Northeast Massachusetts and Northwest Massachusetts, strong to damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Northern and Western Massachusetts through Northwest Connecticut in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather today..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 2 PM today to monitor the threat..

As has been the case since Wednesday, the region remains in a hot and very humid environment. The region will again have sufficient instability and wind shear for the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms in Western to North-Central and possibly Northeast Massachusetts and into Northwest Connecticut. The question will be whether there is a sufficient trigger to get any isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms to form. They could affect the area outlined or be north and west of this area. This will be monitored through the day.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 2 PM today to monitor the threat. This will be the only coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 8/2/18 and Friday 8/3/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday Afternoon and Evening across Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut with a line of activity over Western Connecticut and entering Western Massachusetts. Strong to Damaging Winds, heavy rain leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..Another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is possible Friday Afternoon and Evening across Western Massachusetts and North-Central Connecticut..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather for today and again Friday..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton commenced at 345 PM Thursday to monitor today’s threat. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible again Friday Afternoon and Friday Night. A coordination message will be sent by 10 AM Friday for Friday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outloook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day 2 Convective Outlooks..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2018/day2otlk_20180802_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 8/1/18 – Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible late Wednesday Morning into Wednesday Evening across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western and Central New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather for extreme Western New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will occur for the severe weather potential with monitoring started by 11 AM-Noon Wednesday..

The severe weather potential particularly for Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut has increased a bit as we approach the late Wednesday Morning into early Wednesday Evening timeframe. A warm front signaling the increase of Dewpoints and higher humidity will work through Southern New England this morning with some showers associated with it. After that passes through, there will be higher instability along with high shear as well as turning in the atmosphere. This should allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and the timing of this could be as early as late morning through as late as early this evening. The headlines of the coordination message depict the current threat. There had been some concerns about triggering the atmosphere in prior outlooks but the position of the warm front and its proximity may provide sufficient triggering for strong to severe thunderstorms development in western and central New England. There had also been concerns about cloud cover reducing the threat as well but models are still bringing in fairly high instability levels along with rather strong wind shear. The coverage of severe thunderstorms is expected to be isolated to scattered but those isolated areas could see a fairly potent severe weather event if the conditions line up as expected.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will occur for the severe weather potential with monitoring started by 11 AM-Noon Wednesday. This will be the only coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box