Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 8/1/18 – Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms possible late Wednesday Morning into Wednesday Evening across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats with an isolated tornado as a secondary threat. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Western and Central New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with a slight risk of severe weather for extreme Western New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will occur for the severe weather potential with monitoring started by 11 AM-Noon Wednesday..

The severe weather potential particularly for Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut has increased a bit as we approach the late Wednesday Morning into early Wednesday Evening timeframe. A warm front signaling the increase of Dewpoints and higher humidity will work through Southern New England this morning with some showers associated with it. After that passes through, there will be higher instability along with high shear as well as turning in the atmosphere. This should allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms and the timing of this could be as early as late morning through as late as early this evening. The headlines of the coordination message depict the current threat. There had been some concerns about triggering the atmosphere in prior outlooks but the position of the warm front and its proximity may provide sufficient triggering for strong to severe thunderstorms development in western and central New England. There had also been concerns about cloud cover reducing the threat as well but models are still bringing in fairly high instability levels along with rather strong wind shear. The coverage of severe thunderstorms is expected to be isolated to scattered but those isolated areas could see a fairly potent severe weather event if the conditions line up as expected.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will occur for the severe weather potential with monitoring started by 11 AM-Noon Wednesday. This will be the only coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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