Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Severe Weather/Flash Flood Potential – Saturday 8/4/18

Hello to all…

..Convective Showers and Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are expected this morning through early evening across Southern New England. Isolated severe thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are possible as we get into the late Saturday Morning through early Saturday Evening timeframe. An isolated/brief tornado cannot be ruled out as well. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather through early evening..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for Northern Connecticut, Bristol, Kent, Providence and Washington Counties of Rhode Island, and Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Middlesex, Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk, and North-Central Bristol Counties of Massachusetts for 1-2″ per hour rainfall rates potentially causing urban and poor drainage flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions today. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible depending on how the situation evolves..

The last day for convective chances for a couple days will occur today. A weak cold front and meso low will move across the area today. Doppler Radar at 725 AM shows a line of heavy downpours, convective showers and isolated thunderstorms extending from Southern New Jersey to Northern New England with the meso low forming in Southern New Jersey. The activity is moving northeastward. If convective showers and thunderstorms can train over the same area, it will lead to greater risk of flooding and flash flooding hence the Flash Flood Watch headlines for much of Southern New England as depicted above. The other risk is for Isolated Severe Thunderstorms. Despite cloud cover from the line of convective showers, downpours, the meso low in Southern New Jersey may enhance instability to allow for isolated severe thunderstorms with a strong to damaging wind risk and possibly an isolated/brief tornado. For this region, SPC has the region in a marginal risk of severe weather for today.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions today. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible depending on how the situation evolves. This will be the only complete coordination message on today’s severe weather potential. A shortened coordination message will be posted if time allows and Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are initiated. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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