Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 8/17/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…
..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible to likely across interior Southern New England from Friday mid-afternoon through late Friday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding to flash flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a slight risk for severe weather and Eastern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely starting around 1-2 PM lasting through late Friday Evening..
At 1010 AM, Doppler Radar showed an area of rainfall associated with the warm front that will swing through the area late this morning through mid-afternoon. This activity may intensify and produce a couple isolated strong to severe thunderstorms. Behind this area and behind the warm front and ahead of a cold front/trough, another round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible assuming sufficient heating and destabilization and shear and jet dynamics will increase a bit behind the warm front and head of the cold front/trough. This would start toward the late afternoon and early evening timeframe lasting through late evening. The headlines cover this well. It is noted that there is a secondary threat for an isolated/brief tornado in this setup given the proximity of the warm front, increasing jet dynamics and wind aloft through evening presuming sufficient heating and destabilization.
SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely starting around 1-2 PM lasting through late Friday Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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