Remnants of Florence Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 9/18/18 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

…Remnants of Florence will bring the potential of heavy rain and urban, poor drainage and small stream flooding to flash flooding across much of Southern New England and the threat of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with the potential of strong to damaging winds or an isolated tornado..
..A Flash Flood Watch is now in effect from Late Tonight through Late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Western, Central and Eastern Massachusetts except for the South Coast. The potential exists for a widespread 1-3″ of rain with isolated higher amounts and a band of 4-6″ of rain could potentially setup somewhere in the coverage area within the Flash Flood Watch area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in future messages..

The remnants of Florence are finally moving away from the Carolinas and will make a pass through Southern New England late tonight through Tuesday Evening. The headlines of the message depict the potential. We do not expect the impacts of Florence to be anywhere near what has been seen in North and South Carolina. That said, with recent heavy rainfall and this new potential for heavy rainfall, there will be some potential impacts to the region and we have to also be aware of the very low risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm with the potential for strong to damaging winds or an isolated small tornado. Key items on this flood and severe weather potential:

1.) The position of the heaviest rainfall is still not totally known and will be refined in future forecasts.
2.) The threat of an isolated severe thunderstorm with a damaging wind or small tornado risk will be contingent on the amount of instability that can develop.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in future messages. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 PM Monday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box