Remnants of Florence Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 9/18/18 Flash Flood/Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Remnants of Florence will bring the potential of heavy rain and urban, poor drainage and small stream flooding to flash flooding across much of Southern New England and the threat of an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm with the potential of strong to damaging winds or an isolated tornado..
..A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from 5 AM Tuesday through Late Tuesday Night for Northern Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Western, Central and Eastern Massachusetts except for the South Coast. The potential exists for a widespread 1-3″ of rain with isolated higher amounts and a band of 4-6″ of rain could potentially setup somewhere in the coverage area within the Flash Flood Watch area..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in the morning..

The remnants of Florence are finally moving away from the Carolinas and will make a pass through Southern New England late tonight through Tuesday Evening. The headlines of the message depict the potential. Not much change to the current forecast but will be monitoring a bit more closely any thunderstorms and severe weather potential given what occurred in Virginia Monday Afternoon into early evening. Again, we do not expect the impacts of Florence to be anywhere near what has been seen in North and South Carolina. That said, with recent heavy rainfall and this new potential for heavy rainfall, there will be some potential impacts to the region and we have to remain aware of the low to very low risk of an isolated severe thunderstorm with the potential for strong to damaging winds or an isolated small tornado. Key items on this flood and severe weather potential:

1.) The position of the heaviest rainfall is still not totally known and will be refined in future forecasts.
2.) The threat of an isolated severe thunderstorm with a damaging wind or small tornado risk will be contingent on the amount of instability that can develop.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely on Tuesday. Specific timeframe of activation will be determined in future messages. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 AM Tuesday Morning and ongoing weather early Tuesday Morning will determine whether or not it will be a full message or a shortened coordination message. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Flash Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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