Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday 9/25/18 Heavy Rainfall Potential/Wednesday 9/26/18 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…
..Soaking heavy rainfall for Tuesday through Tuesday Night with the potential for some localized urban and poor drainage flooding issues if some areas receive 3″ or more of rainfall..
..As a warm front passes through the area that causes the soaking rainfall Tuesday, the potential exists for Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms in South Coastal New England Wednesday Morning with the potential for another round of severe weather particularly in interior Southern New England late Wednesday Afternoon and Wednesday Night. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal New England which is in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports on Tuesday through Tuesday Night and the severe weather potential in South Coastal New England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening if the severe weather potential materializes during this timeframe..
A soaking rainfall with a storm system and warm front will occur across Southern New England with a widespread 1-3″ of rainfall. Some models are indicating that some interior locations of Southern New England could see amounts greater than 3″. This will bear watching as this could lead to some localized urban and poor drainage flooding issues if those totals are realized. As the warm front and soaking rainfall moves through the region and Southern New England gets into the warm sector, this will set the stage for potentially 2 rounds of severe weather. The first round of severe weather would be around South Coastal New England during the overnight hours Tuesday Night into Wednesday Morning and then a second round with a cold front that will swing through Southern New England. Future model runs will better define the level of instability and destabilization for strong to severe thunderstorm development on Wednesday but it is notable that SPC has much of Southern New England in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather 3 days ahead of time which is a relatively rare occurrence.
SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for rainfall and flooding reports on Tuesday through Tuesday Night and the severe weather potential in South Coastal New England overnight Tuesday into Wednesday Morning. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible Wednesday Afternoon and Evening if the severe weather potential materializes during this timeframe. Another coordination message will be posted by 900 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box