Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – 9/26/18 – Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..After the flash flooding in portions of Southern New England, particularly in Southern and Eastern Connecticut, warm and humid conditions exist over Southern New England with the warm front having pushed through, this will set the stage for the potential for severe weather late this Wednesday afternoon and evening in Southern New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued to place much of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather except for Southeast Coastal New England which is in a marginal risk for severe weather. Strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding to possibly river and stream and flash flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats. An Isolated tornado is a secondary threat in Western New England..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 400 PM Wednesday Afternoon to monitor the severe weather potential..

Flash flooding and significant rainfall amounts occurred in portions of Southern New England with amounts over 4.5″ in scattered locations. Information on the heavy rainfall and flooding/flash flooding can be seen at the following links:

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Rainfall Reports:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809261305.nous41.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809260846.nous41.html

NWS Boston/Norton Public Information Statement – Local Storm Report:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809260048.nwus51.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809260134.nwus51.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1809260208.nwus51.html

WX1BOX Amateur Radio Team Log:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/reports_9_25_18-1.txt

The region has now moved into the warm sector with warm and humid conditions over the region. A strong cold front will move through Southern New England this evening. While the timing is a bit later than peak heating, there are very strong winds aloft and strong lifting and triggering with the cold front. This will set the stage for the potential of a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to swing through Southern New England with interior Southern New England as the main threat area particularly from Worcester County Massachusetts and west and across Northern Connecticut. Areas to the east will have the potential for severe weather as well but it will be less than out west due to slightly weaker wind fields and the timing of the cold front with lower instability levels.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 400 PM to monitor the severe weather potential. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operation mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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