Storm Coordination Message #3A – Thursday Late Afternoon 11/15/18-Friday Morning 11/16/18 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

*Corrected to add Worcester County to the Winter Storm Warning. Amateur Radio Net monitoring will start 5-6 PM in the west and by 8 PM in Eastern areas.*

..First widespread accumulating snow and ice is on track for much of interior Southern New England late Thursday Afternoon through Friday Morning with strong to damaging winds on the Cape and Islands and East Coastal Massachusetts. There has been a significant upgrade to the storm scenario necessitating a coordination message update..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 4 PM Thursday Afternoon through 7 AM Friday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County RI, Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, North-Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 4-7″ of snow and a light glaze to one-tenth of an inch of ice. The snow and ice may be heavy enough to cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 6 PM Thursday Evening through 2 AM Friday Morning for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for 2-6″ of snow and a coating of ice with wind gusts in the 40-50 MPH range possible. At the coast, snow amounts may be closer to 1-2″ of snow. The snow and strong winds are likely sufficient to cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 7 PM Thursday Evening to 1 AM Friday Morning for Rhode Island and Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 2-6″ of snow away from the coast with 1-2″ of snow at the coast and ice accumulations of a coating with wind gusts in the 35-40 MPH range. The snow and winds may be sufficient to cause isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated power outages..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from Midnight to 9 AM Friday for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts in the 55-60 MPH range. A Wind Advisory is now in effect from Midnight to 9 AM Friday for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 15-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds will have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm with potential Amateur Radio call-up nets on various SKYWARN frequencies for snow and ice totals and changeover in precipitation types and any tree and wire damage from snow and ice during Thursday Night and again for final totals and reports Friday Morning. Will also monitor the wind damage potential in East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands..

The first widespread accumulating snow and ice particularly for interior Southern New England and possibly some coastal areas is still expected late Thursday Afternoon into Friday Morning. There have been some changes where models are indicating a bit more snow then ice over portions of interior areas and this trips the snowfall amounts into Winter Storm Warning criteria. Also, some of the advisory areas have had their snow totals increased as well. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key items to be resolved remains that there is a warm layer of air between the cold surface and colder temperatures aloft. Various factors in how thick this temperature layer is, how cold temperatures are and how heavy the precipitation is will determine how much snow versus ice falls and where the rain-snow line sets up before the rain-snow line eventually moves through Southern New England changing precipitation to ice and light rain before ending.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm with potential Amateur Radio call-up nets on various SKYWARN frequencies for snow and ice totals and changeover in precipitation types and any tree and wire damage from snow and ice during Thursday Night and again for final totals and reports Friday Morning. Will also monitor the wind damage potential in East Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and the Islands. This will be the last coordination message as we move into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Weather Advisory Statement, High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snowfall/Ice maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snow and Ice Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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