Storm Coordination Message #1 – Friday 1/18/19 Light Snow Potential/Saturday Night 1/19/19-Sunday Night 1/20/19 Significant Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Winter has not forgotten Southern New England and it will be felt vigorously this weekend into early next week..
..Light snow will impact the region on Friday with light snow changing to rain in southeast and coastal areas. Most areas to see snowfall in the coating to 2″ range with a few locations possibly getting up to 3″..
..Higher impact storm expected for much of Southern New England late Saturday Afternoon into Sunday Night with heavy snow and significant icing both possible with snow and ice changing to heavy rain and strong winds along coastal areas and the potential for minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide as we get into the Sunday Morning high tide cycle in East Coastal Massachusetts..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Saturday Afternoon through Sunday Night for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage Area except for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and Cape Cod and the Islands for 6″ or more of snow and 0.40″ of ice or more..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the light snow event Friday with occasional call-ups on area Amateur Radio repeaters and other means for snowfall reports. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely at some point Saturday Evening into Sunday Morning lasting through Sunday Evening. Activation plan will be updated as we get closer to the storm event..

The long quiet period of winter weather with only some strong wind, heavy rainfall events and a few very light snow and ice events is about to come to an end. Friday will feature light snow across the area with a coating to 2″ of snow likely. There could be a few locations with spot amounts of 2-3″. Southeast and coastal areas will likely have the light snow eventually changeover to rain in their locations. The snow will be timed with the morning commute and given the cold ground surfaces could have slightly more impact than usual so allow some time to reach your travel destination and

We then turn our attention to a potentially significant and higher impact storm beginning Saturday Evening into Sunday Evening. The headlines discuss the current potential. It is a bit early to get into more specifics. Some key factors to the upcoming storm include the following:

1.) The storm track will determine the area of all snow and where it will be a very heavy snow accumulation, where precipitation mixes with sleet and/or freezing rain with potential sleet and/or ice accumulations and where a changeover to rain occurs. Locations that changeover to rain or sleet and freezing rain will see a changeover to snow before ending with a potential for a flash freeze condition where all wet surfaces will become iced over.
2.) Strong winds will be possible to likely in coastal areas but currently expected to be wind gusts up to 50 MPH. Inland areas could see wind gusts to 35 MPH. Some of this could change based on the intensity of the storm system and the track. That could affect both wind speed intensity and duration of strong winds. There will also be strong winds as the storm departs Sunday Night into Monday Morning.
3.) The snow could be heavy and wet along with the potential for sleet and freezing rain. The weight of the snow and ice coupled with the winds to some extent may cause the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. This aspect will be monitored closely.
4.) Minor to possibly moderate coastal flooding is possible on the Sunday Morning high tide cycle. While winds are not expected to be as strong as some past nor’easter/coastal storm systems, there is a very high astronomical tide cycle for this weekend which will increase the coastal flood potential.
5.) How these key factors line up and turn into specific outcomes will be better defined after future model runs over the next 12-24 hours.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the light snow event Friday with occasional call-ups on area Amateur Radio repeaters and other means for snowfall reports. SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are likely at some point Saturday Evening into Sunday Morning lasting through Sunday Evening. Activation plan will be updated as we get closer to the storm event. The next coordination message will be posted by 1000 PM. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snow and Ice Maps and Facebook Graphics:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snow, Ice and Rain Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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