Storm Coordination Message #6 – Major Winter Storm Potential Saturday Evening 1/19/19-Sunday Evening 1/20/19

Hello to all…

..Major winter storm expected and on track for much of Southern New England late Saturday Afternoon into Sunday Night. Model trends have shifted to a heavy snow and ice scenario for interior Southern New England with more rain expected along coastal areas and Southeast New England. Warnings and advisories have been updated with the pertinent info..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 7 PM Sunday Evening for Franklin, Northern Worcester, Middlesex, Essex and Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts for 6-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts from the route 2 corridor north and west, icing of up to 0.30″ of an inch with isolated higher amounts and wind gusts of 35-40 MPH..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect through 7 PM Sunday Evening for Hartford County Connecticut, Hampden and Southern Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 4-8″ of snow with the highest snow amounts north of Hartford County Connecticut and one-tenth to four-tenths of an inch of ice and wind gusts to 35-40 MPH…
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 4 PM Saturday Afternoon to 7 PM Sunday Evening for Tolland and Windham Counties of Connecticut, North-Central Rhode Island and Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for 3-6″ of snow and a glaze to two-tenths of an inch of ice with the highest snow and ice amounts in the northern and western parts of advisory area. A change to rain in southern parts of this advisory area is expected before a change back to snow and ice and a flash freeze before ending..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect through 7 PM Sunday Evening for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for 1-3″ of snow and up to one-tenth inch of ice before a changeover to heavy rain before a change back to snow and ice and a flash freeze before ending. Wind Gusts of 40-45 MPH are possible in this area..
..A Coastal Flood Flood Advisory is now in effect from 8 AM-Noon for Eastern Essex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for minor flooding of vulnerable shore roads at the time of high tide Sunday Morning. The Coastal Flood Warning for this area was downgraded to a Coastal Flood Advisory..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 8 AM-Noon for for Cape Cod and the Islands for flooding of vulnerable shore roads at the time of high tide..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect from 5 AM-10 AM for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island for flooding of vulnerable shore roads at the time of high tide..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect for Sunday Morning through Sunday Afternoon for Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and all of Rhode Island except for Northwest Providence County RI for 1-3″ of rainfall with isolated higher amounts possible after any snowfall. This could lead to urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly some small river and stream flooding..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 5 AM to 3 PM Sunday for Cape Cod and Nantucket Island for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 45-50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 5 AM Sunday Morning with SKYWARN Self-Activation monitoring up until Amateur Radio Ops start time. Pictures and video of storm snowfall and ice, damage and flood photos can be sent to the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds as a reply to this email or via pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator for the picture or video..

The long quiet period of winter weather with only some strong wind, heavy rainfall events and a few very light snow and ice events is on track to come to an end. The headlines discuss the current potential and a third cut at snow, ice and rain totals. The trend has been warmer with less snow accumulation but more icing in the interior and heavy rainfall now expected in Southeast New England. The key factors remain as follows with some more updates:

1.) The storm track will determine the area of all snow and where it will be a very heavy snow accumulation, where precipitation mixes with sleet and/or freezing rain with potential sleet and/or ice accumulations and where a changeover to rain occurs. Locations that changeover to rain or sleet and freezing rain will see a changeover to snow before ending with a potential for a flash freeze condition where all wet surfaces will become iced over. The trend continues to be for more sleet and freezing rain particularly as far north and west as the Worcester, Springfield, Northampton, Mass area. While this may lower snowfall amounts, the icing will have the potential to cause worse conditions including potential for pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. Further snow and ice total adjustments could be made and precise spotter data will help in any future forecast refinements.
2.) Wind Advisories are now posted for Cape Cod and the Islands and some wind gusts in the 35-40 MPH range may occur in the Winter Storm Warning/Winder Weather Advisory area.
3.) The snow could be heavy and wet along with the potential for sleet and freezing rain. The weight of the snow and ice coupled with the winds to some extent may cause the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages. This aspect will be monitored closely as ice amounts have been increased in most areas which could actually lead to greater impact and will be monitored closely.
4.) Coastal flooding is currently expected to be minor with the Coastal Flood Warning downgraded to a Coastal Flood Advisory from the Boston area northward to the Massachusetts-New Hampshire border and Coastal Flood Advisories continue for the rest of East and South Coastal Massachusetts, Cape Cod and Nantucket. While winds are not expected to be as strong as some past nor’easter/coastal storm systems, there is a very high astronomical tide cycle for this weekend which will increase the coastal flood potential.
5.) Rainfall of 1-3″ with isolated higher amounts are expected in much of Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts with a flood watch now in effect for this region for the potential of urban, poor drainage, small river and stream flooding.
6.) Spotter reports on snow, ice, amounts, wind measurements of criteria and any damage reports will be critical as well as precipitation type reports when the changeover takes hold. As stated, this will factor into forecast adjustments if needed during the storm event.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 5 AM Sunday Morning with SKYWARN Self-Activation monitoring up until Amateur Radio Ops start time. Pictures and video of storm snowfall and ice, damage and flood photos can be sent to the WX1BOX Facebook and Twitter feeds as a reply to this email or via pics@nsradio.org with credit given to the SKYWARN Spotter or Amateur Radio Operator for the picture or video. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snow and Ice Maps and briefing package:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Warning/Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snow, Ice and Rain Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Briefing Package:
https://www.weather.gov/media/box/2019.01.19_PM_NWS_Boston_jan19_20_winterstorm.pdf

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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