Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Friday Night 3/1/19-Saturday Evening 3/2/19 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Coastal storm system to bring heavy accumulating wet snow storm to portions of Southern New England late tonight into early Saturday Evening. Confidence in storm solution lower than normal at this time range due to varying model solutions..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 1 AM to 7 PM Saturday for Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for heavy wet snow accumulating from 4 to 8″ with isolated higher amounts possible and the heaviest snow between 4 AM and 12 PM Saturday. The heavy wet snow with wind gusts 35-40 MPH may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 1 AM to 7 PM Saturday for Northern Connecticut, All of Rhode Island, Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard, Eastern Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex and Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 2-5″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and those isolated higher amounts being most likely in Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts and the heaviest snow between 4-10 AM. Cape Cod and Martha’s Vineyard may also see higher snow amounts if no mix with sleet or rain occurs during the storm event. If snow amounts are greater than 4″, isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages are possible particularly coastal areas where there could also be wind gusts between 35-40 MPH..
..Interior areas outside of the Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory areas will receive a Coating to 2″ of snow with snow to rain on Nantucket Island..
..Another significant winter storm will affect the region Sunday Night into Monday with heavier snow in the interior and snow mixing with sleet and rain along and southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor. Details on this system will be in future coordination messages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor this winter storm potential late Friday Night into early Saturday Evening..

An active weekend of winter weather will affect Southern New England tonight into early Saturday Evening and again late Sunday Afternoon into Monday. This message focuses on the first winter storm for tonight into early Saturday Evening. Additional coordination messages focusing on the late Sunday Afternoon into Monday winter storm will occur after the late Friday night into early Saturday Evening storm is completed. The headlines focus of the coordination message focuses on the late Friday Night into early Saturday Evening storm. Key factors for this storm includes:

1.) Model agreement this close to the storm event is lower than normal. There had been a trend towards a closer to the coast solution which has now trended a little further offshore. Any continued changes in this regard could make snowfall amounts greater in Southern New England and further west with more mixing in Southeast Coastal New England or keep the storm more focused on Southeast New England as currently depicted or even slightly further south and east if the storm tracks a bit more to the east or offshore.
2.) The amount of intensification as the storm swings through the region as well as how quickly it will swing through the area. This will affect snowfall rates per hour and may also be a factor in precipitation type along the south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island region. The speed of the system will also affect the duration of the heavier snowfall.
3.) Snow accumulations over 4 inches and especially over 6 inches with wind gusts in the 30-40 MPH range and those strongest wind gusts in East and South Coastal Massachusetts would have the potential to cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. This could be a greater threat if the heavier snow amounts occur and over a more widespread area.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor this winter storm potential late Friday Night into early Saturday Evening. This will most likely be the only coordination message on this storm event unless time allows for an update and a significant change to the storm scenario occurs. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Snow and Ice Maps and Facebook Infographics:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snow Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.2109808055780221/2109807815780245/?type=3&theater

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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