Storm Coordination Message #3 – Sunday Evening 3/3/19-Monday Morning 3/4/19 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Moderate to Major Snowstorm to affect Southern New England tonight through Monday Morning. Latest Models have increased snowfall amounts for much of the area but there does remain uncertainty in the Southeast coastal areas where sleet and/or rain could hold down amounts. If higher snow amounts are realized in interior central and Southeastern New England and coastal Southeast New England, wet snow damage risk would increase..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 7 PM Sunday Evening to 10 AM Monday Morning for Northern Connecticut, All of Rhode Island Eastern Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 5-10″ of snow likely with isolated higher amounts to around 12″ possible in interior portions of the warning area. The southern and eastern parts of the warning area may see a wet snow that could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages particularly if higher amounts are realized..
..A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Franklin and Western Hampshire Counties of Massachusetts from 7 PM Sunday Evening to 10 AM Monday Morning for 3-6″ of snow..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect for Barnstable County Massachusetts from 7 PM Sunday Evening to 10 AM Monday Morning for 3-5″ of snow as sleet and rain mix holds down amounts in this area with wind gusts between 35-40 MPH. If less mixing occurs, it would increase snow amounts with isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and power outages possible. Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket Island are expected to see 2″ or less of snow at this time..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor for snowfall reports, precipitation type reports and any wet snow damage reports..

Another winter storm will affect the region tonight into Monday Morning. The headlines depict the current expectations which have been increased a little since the last message which has necessitated this update. As people have probably seen over the last few storms, models have struggled with the pattern and with marginal temperatures causing mixing with sleet and rain, this has affected snow totals in some areas in past storm events, however, for this storm, the trend in the models between the prior message and this message has been for a stronger storm solution with heavier snow and a storm track favorable for what is outlined about. Key factors for this specific storm remain as follows:

1.) How much rain and sleet mixes in with the snow in the southeast portions of the Winter Storm Warning at the coastline. If that mix occurs, it could hold snow amounts down. If it falls mostly as snow, it could be a heavy wet snow which would increase the potential for isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages.
2.) The storm track, speed and intensification process of the storm will be another factor. If the storm track is a bit more southeast or intensification occurs later in time or further offshore, snow amounts will be on the lower end of the ranges. If the storm track holds to the same current projection or gets a bit closer and the intensification occurs a little more rapidly closer to our region, it would support the higher end of the snow total ranges particularly in the interior portions of the Winter Storm Warning are with the isolated higher amounts being a bit more widespread. As of this update, the track near the 40 North/70 West benchmark and more intensification earlier is leading to higher snowfall rates per hour which means a stronger storm solution that will bear watching for both higher end snow amounts as depicted as well as a potential greater threat for wet snow damage.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor for snowfall reports, precipitation type reports and any wet snow damage reports. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snow Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snow Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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