Wind Coordination Message #1 – Friday 5/24/19 Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all…

..Strong Wind Gusts expected today through early tonight across the region with the strongest wind gusts this afternoon and early evening over Cape Cod and Nantucket Island..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 1-9 PM Friday for Cape Cod and Nantucket for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts from 40-50 MPH. Areas outside of the Wind Advisory area could see wind gusts up to and around 40 MPH especially along East and South Coastal Massachusetts. These winds may cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages given fully leaved trees and could affect mariners out on the waters today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor strong wind gusts and isolated wind damage potential through the day today. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement, Marine Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Marine Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fzus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 5/20/19 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..WX1BOX Amateur Radio Operations activated at 130 PM monitoring for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #198 posted through 900 PM EDT for Berkshire, Hampden, Hampshire, Franklin, Worcester and Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and Litchfield County of Northern Connecticut for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected across this area. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..The key factors for severe weather development from message #1 that still remain relevant are listed below..

Key factors on the extent of the severe weather potential include the following:

1.) Models are indicating that there could be less moisture to work with as instability peaks which may make showers and thunderstorms more of a low-topped and weaker nature. This will have to be watched carefully and is now the notable key factor against the potential for severe weather despite other favorable parameters.
2.) Heating and destabilization is now prevalant across the region and is a favorable factor for potential isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Other favorable factors include the strength of the cold front and the wind shear profiles which will be quite strong including some potential for turning of those strong winds especially over Western and Central Massachusetts which is the reason a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out for the area. Key factor #1, however, could potentially limit this key factor and key factor #2 for more robust strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton at WX1BOX commenced at 130 PM. This will be the last message ahead of any severe weather potential. Below is the SPC/NWS Boston/Norton Severe Thunderstorm Watch #198 statement, NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC and NWS Boston/Norton Severe Thunderstorm Watch #198 statement and County Outline:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0198.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 5/20/19 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across interior Southern New England north and west of a Boston to Providence line extending through Berkshire county Massachusetts and Litchfield County Connecticut. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather with the slight risk area centered over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lighting are the main threats but a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence between 12-1 PM Monday with the highest potential timeframe for severe weather from 2-9 PM Monday..

The first more widespread severe weather event of the year will be possible across interior Southern New England north and west of a Boston to Providence line through interior Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Monday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors on the extent of the severe weather potential include the following:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization that can occur during the day Monday. At this time, models are forecasting clearing for ample heating and destabilization but if this does not occur, that could be a limiting factor.
2.) Models are indicating that there could be less moisture to work with as instability peaks which may make showers and thunderstorms more of a low-topped and weaker nature. This will have to be watched carefully.
3.) Favorable factors include the strength of the cold front and the wind shear profiles which will be quite strong including some potential for turning of those strong winds especially over Western and Central Massachusetts which is the reason a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out for the area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence between 12-1 PM Monday with the highest potential timeframe for severe weather from 2-9 PM Monday. The next coordination message will be posted by 12 PM Monday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190519_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Monday Night 5/13/19-Tuesday Morning 5/14/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..A coastal storm system will have the potential to produce wind gusts of up to 35-40 MPH at the coast, minor coastal flooding at the time of the Tuesday Morning high tide cycle and the potential for higher elevation snow in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut late tonight into early Tuesday Morning with a Coating to 2″ of snow above 1000 feet possible on non-paved surfaces. If certain conditions were to occur including heavier precipitation during overnight hours to allow for more cooling, higher amounts of 2″ or more could occur in parts of the Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest Connecticut in the higher elevations..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions overnight into early Tuesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement, Coastal Flood Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement – Higher Elevation Snow:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Statement – Minor Coastal Flood Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box