Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday 5/20/19 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across interior Southern New England north and west of a Boston to Providence line extending through Berkshire county Massachusetts and Litchfield County Connecticut. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Southern New England in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather with the slight risk area centered over Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lighting are the main threats but a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence between 12-1 PM Monday with the highest potential timeframe for severe weather from 2-9 PM Monday..

The first more widespread severe weather event of the year will be possible across interior Southern New England north and west of a Boston to Providence line through interior Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut Monday Afternoon and Evening. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors on the extent of the severe weather potential include the following:

1.) Amount of heating and destabilization that can occur during the day Monday. At this time, models are forecasting clearing for ample heating and destabilization but if this does not occur, that could be a limiting factor.
2.) Models are indicating that there could be less moisture to work with as instability peaks which may make showers and thunderstorms more of a low-topped and weaker nature. This will have to be watched carefully.
3.) Favorable factors include the strength of the cold front and the wind shear profiles which will be quite strong including some potential for turning of those strong winds especially over Western and Central Massachusetts which is the reason a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out for the area.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence between 12-1 PM Monday with the highest potential timeframe for severe weather from 2-9 PM Monday. The next coordination message will be posted by 12 PM Monday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190519_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box