Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 5/20/19 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..WX1BOX Amateur Radio Operations activated at 130 PM monitoring for Severe Thunderstorm Watch #198 posted through 900 PM EDT for Berkshire, Hampden, Hampshire, Franklin, Worcester and Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts and Litchfield County of Northern Connecticut for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms expected across this area. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy rainfall with urban and poor drainage flooding and frequent lightning are the main threats..
..The key factors for severe weather development from message #1 that still remain relevant are listed below..

Key factors on the extent of the severe weather potential include the following:

1.) Models are indicating that there could be less moisture to work with as instability peaks which may make showers and thunderstorms more of a low-topped and weaker nature. This will have to be watched carefully and is now the notable key factor against the potential for severe weather despite other favorable parameters.
2.) Heating and destabilization is now prevalant across the region and is a favorable factor for potential isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) Other favorable factors include the strength of the cold front and the wind shear profiles which will be quite strong including some potential for turning of those strong winds especially over Western and Central Massachusetts which is the reason a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out for the area. Key factor #1, however, could potentially limit this key factor and key factor #2 for more robust strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton at WX1BOX commenced at 130 PM. This will be the last message ahead of any severe weather potential. Below is the SPC/NWS Boston/Norton Severe Thunderstorm Watch #198 statement, NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

SPC and NWS Boston/Norton Severe Thunderstorm Watch #198 statement and County Outline:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0198.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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