Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Saturday 6/29/19-Sunday 6/30/19 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms possible to likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much of Southern New England. Strong to Damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed western and central portions of Southern New England in a slight risk for severe weather and Eastern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Saturday..
..There is another chance for severe weather for Sunday which will be detailed in future coordination messages..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton is possible Saturday and Sunday for the severe weather potential..

It will potentially be an active weekend for severe weather across Southern New England. We will detail Saturday over the next day’s coordination messages and detail Sunday’s potential as we get into the first half of the weekend.

For Saturday, the headlines depict the current severe weather potential. Key factors for Saturday’s severe weather potential and extent of strong to severe thunderstorm coverage are the following:

1.) Amount of cloud cover over the area as that will determine destabilization and level of instability for the region.
2.) Timing of the cold front through the region.
3.) Favorable factors for severe weather potential include sufficient wind shear profiles and good cooling of the atmosphere aloft along with a strong triggering mechanism with the cold front.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton is possible Saturday and Sunday for the severe weather potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 PM Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2019/day2otlk_20190628_0600.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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