Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday PM 8/7/19-Thursday AM 8/8/19 – Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday Mid-Afternoon, Wednesday Night August 7th and potentially overnight into early Thursday Morning August 8th. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. There is a low risk for an isolated tornado as a secondary threat..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut in a marginal to slight risk for severe weather. This risk shifts into central and Eastern New England later Wednesday Night, overnight into early Thursday Morning into central and Eastern New England later Wednesday Night, overnight into early Thursday Morning though there is some activity that could also occur in this area in the Wednesday Afternoon and early evening timeframe as well..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 130 PM Wednesday Afternoon. Ops could extend very late into the evening and possibly into the overnight hours or it is possible we will switch to self-activation mode during the overnight depending on severe weather potential and the timing of the various potential waves of strong to severe thunderstorms..

The next 18-24 hours has the potential to be fairly active across Southern New England with the potential for a few rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. Not every location will see a strong to severe thunderstorm but there could be a few rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with the first of which occurring after 2 PM and then another round of activity potentially later Wednesday Night into early Thursday Morning during the overnight period. Instability levels will be sufficient with wind shear levels marginal but strengthening with time. Models are also indicating instability potentially increasing during the overnight despite the time of day because of cooling temperatures aloft. The setup has the potential for a couple to few rounds of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with the primary threats as listed in the headlines but a secondary threat for an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence by 130 PM Wednesday Afternoon. Ops could extend very late into the evening and possibly into the overnight hours or it is possible we will switch to self-activation mode during the overnight depending on severe weather potential and the timing of the various potential waves of strong to severe thunderstorms. This will be the only full coordination message sent on today’s severe weather potential. If time allows, a shortened update could be issued later Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement – Severe Weather Potential:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/1908071553.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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