Hurricane Dorian Coordination Message #2 – Late Friday Night 9/6/19-Saturday 9/7/19 Tropical Storm Conditions on Cape Cod and the Islands

Hello to all…

..Hurricane Dorian is expected to pass southeast of Nantucket Island late Friday Night into early Saturday Morning. The track will bring a period of strong to damaging winds and heavy rainfall to Cape Cod and the Islands during this timeframe with high surf and rip currents over portions of the Southern New England coast..
..A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for the potential of sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 50-60 MPH. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages along with minor coastal flooding particularly around Nantucket. There is the potential for 1-4″ of rain in the Tropical Storm Warning area with the worst conditions between 2 AM-12 PM Saturday..
..Areas of Southeast New England nearest the tropical storm warning area may see wind gusts to 30-40 MPH and up to 1.5″ of rain. There is also the possibility of a band of rainfall in Western New England that could produce up to 1″ of rain not directly associated with Dorian..
..Track uncertainty of around 50 miles is still present. A track closer to the coast would mean somewhat higher impacts in the tropical storm warning area and perhaps stronger impacts north and west of the current Tropical Storm Warning area. A track further offshore would confine tropical storm impacts to Nantucket Island Massachusetts..
..A High Surf Advisory is in effect from 4 PM Friday Afternoon through 6 PM Saturday Evening for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island and from 6 AM-6 PM Saturday for Eastern Essex and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for tropical storm conditions on Cape Cod and Islands. The 146.955-Barnstable Repeater will be monitored during this tropical storm event. It is noted that these impacts will be similar to a quick hitting nor’easter. The hurricane will remain offshore so hurricane conditions are not expected..

Hurricane Dorian is expected to track southeast of Nantucket Island Late Friday Night into Saturday Morning. This will result in tropical storm conditions over Cape Cod and the Islands where a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors remain as follows:

1.) Eventual track of Dorian. As stated in the headlines, the track uncertainty is about 50 miles and a slightly closer track by this amount may allow for slightly stronger tropical storm force conditions over Cape Cod and the Islands and could extend those conditions a little further north and west while a track 50 miles further offshore would mean impacts confined to Nantucket Island.
2.) The hurricane combined with strong high pressure along with warm ocean temperatures and slightly cooler air aloft has the potential to allow for an expanding wind gradient that will support the stronger wind gusts that our tropical storm strength in the watch area if Dorian’s track is close enough.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for tropical storm conditions on Cape Cod and Islands. The 146.955-Barnstable Repeater will be monitored during this tropical storm event. It is noted that these impacts will be similar to a quick hitting nor’easter. The hurricane will remain offshore so hurricane conditions are not expected. This will likely be the last coordination message on Dorian unless a significant upgrade to the situation occurs and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Local Statement, High Surf Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory package:

NWS Boston/Norton – Local Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wtus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton – High Surf Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
http://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

National Hurricane Center – Miami Florida Information:

Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt35.KNHC.html

Hurricane Dorian Technical Discussion Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt45.KNHC.html

Hurricane Dorian Forecast/Advisory Information:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.wtnt25.KNHC.html

Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities:
https://kamala.cod.edu/TPC/latest.font15.KNHC.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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