Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Night 10/16/19-Thursday 10/17/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Strong Coastal Storm system brings the threat of heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and even isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to Southern New England Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning with the potential of strong to damaging winds continuing through late Thursday Afternoon..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds and perhaps even the low risk of an isolated, brief tornado for late tonight and early Thursday Morning..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 1 AM to 5 PM Thursday for Cape Cod and the Islands, Eastern Essex and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 10 PM Wednesday Evening to 6 PM Thursday Evening for the rest of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area including Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Western, Central and the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from 10 PM Wednesday Evening through Thursday Morning for Northern Connecticut, and Western and Central Massachusetts for rainfall of 2-3″ with locally higher amounts of up to 5″ possible. This rainfall may cause significant urban and poor drainage flooding. Due to recent dry conditions, most if not all small rivers and streams will remain in their banks..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system overnight and during the day Thursday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible but would be focused on daytime operations as needed with overnight activity monitored by self-activation. It is most likely we will use SKYWARN Self-Activation and remote monitoring of repeaters for rainfall reports, wind damage and wind gust measurement reports and any flooding reports..

A strong coastal storm system will cause heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds across much of Southern New England with even the risk of isolated severe thunderstorms in Southeast New England with strong to damaging winds and an isolated brief tornado as potential threats. The heavy rainfall will be during the overnight hours and end near or before the Thursday Morning commute with the severe weather risk late tonight into early Thursday Morning before daybreak. The strong to damaging winds will occur overnight and again during the day on Thursday lasting into the late afternoon/early evening. The headlines depict current thinking with the key changes being a High Wind Warning for Cape Cod and the Islands, Eastern Plymouth and Eastern Essex Counties of Massachusetts, the expansion of the Wind Advisory across the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area and a Flood Watch for Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. Key factors include:

1.) Winds overnight could be strong to damaging and enhanced by convective heavy downpours and thunderstorms that can drag strong to damaging winds down to the surface and there is even the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms with even the risk of an isolated brief tornado in Southeast New England hence the marginal risk for severe weather in this area.
2.) Strong to damaging winds will occur on the back side of the storm system as it moves away from the area as well. The track of the storm system over Southern New England and the potential for more areas to be exposed to the east side of the system has resulted in the Wind Advisory expansion as well as a conversion to High Wind Warnings for Cape Cod and the Islands and expanding those warnings into Eastern Essex and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts.
3.) Understanding that the rainfall did not materialize from last week’s nor’easter, the track of this storm is very different and tracking over Southern New England increasing confidence for heavy rainfall. Given recent dry conditions, flooding should be confined to urban and poor drainage areas but could be widespread enough to cause an impact so a flood watch has been issued for this hazard.
4.) With such a strong and dynamic system, it will bear close watching for higher impacts assuming the fully intensity modeled is realized and based on track guidance.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system overnight and during the day Thursday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible but would be focused on daytime operations as needed with overnight activity monitored by self-activation. It is most likely we will use SKYWARN Self-Activation and remote monitoring of repeaters for rainfall reports, wind damage and wind gust measurement reports and any flooding reports. This will be the last complete coordination message for this storm system. A shortened coordination message will be posted if Ops at NWS are initiated and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Flood Watch Statement, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Night 10/16/19-Thursday Late Afternoon 10/17/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Strong Coastal Storm system brings the threat of heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and even isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to Southern New England Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning with the potential of strong to damaging winds continuing through late Thursday Afternoon..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds and perhaps even the low risk of an isolated, brief tornado for late tonight and early Thursday Morning..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for Thursday Morning into Thursday Afternoon with a Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM Wednesday Evening to 7 AM Thursday Morning for sustained winds 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH overnight and potentially as high as 60 MPH with isolated higher gusts Thursday. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 10 PM Wednesday Evening to 6 PM Thursday Evening for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Eastern Kent County Rhode Island for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from Midnight to 6 PM Thursday for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH and isolated higher gusts. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM to 5 PM Thursday for Western Essex, Southern Worcester, Western Plymouth, Central Middlesex, Western Norfolk and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts and Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..Heavy Rainfall of 1-3″ is expected across much of Southern New England with isolated higher amounts of 3-4″ possible in localized areas. This rainfall may cause areas of localized urban and poor drainage flooding in most prone areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system overnight and during the day Thursday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible but would be focused on daytime operations as needed with overnight activity monitored by self-activation..

A strong coastal storm system will cause heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds across much of Southern New England with even the risk of isolated severe thunderstorms in Southeast New England with strong to damaging winds and an isolated brief tornado as potential threats. The heavy rainfall will be during the overnight hours and end near or before the Thursday Morning commute with the severe weather risk late tonight into early Thursday Morning before daybreak. The strong to damaging winds will occur overnight and again during the day on Thursday lasting into the late afternoon/early evening. The headlines depict current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Winds overnight could be strong to damaging and enhanced by convective heavy downpours and thunderstorms that can drag strong to damaging winds down to the surface and there is even the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms with even the risk of an isolated brief tornado in Southeast New England hence the marginal risk for severe weather in this area.
2.) Strong to damaging winds will occur on the back side of the storm system as it moves away from the area as well. The track of the storm system over Southern New England and the potential for more areas to be exposed to the east side of the system could allow for winds even higher than currently listed in the headlines of this message and will be watched closely.
3.) Strong winds could occur on Thursday as the storm departs across Western New England and this will be monitored and could result in Wind Advisory headlines.
4.) Understanding that the rainfall did not materialize from last week’s nor’easter, the track of this storm is very different and tracking over Southern New England increasing confidence for heavy rainfall. Given recent dry conditions, flooding should be confined to urban and poor drainage areas.
5.) With such a strong and dynamic system, it will bear close watching for higher impacts assuming the fully intensity modeled is realized and based on track guidance.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system overnight and during the day Thursday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible but would be focused on daytime operations as needed with overnight activity monitored by self-activation. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 PM EDT Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch/Wind Advisory Statement, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Evening 10/9/19-Friday 10/11/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Long Duration Coastal Storm to Affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Afternoon with some strong winds in gusts to around 40 MPH with stronger and more damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding possible to likely particularly in Southeast New England Thursday into Friday..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 2 AM Thursday Morning through 600 AM Friday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts from 2 AM Thursday Morning through 6 AM Friday Morning for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Other coastal areas near the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory areas should closely monitor the strong to damaging wind potential with wind gusts of 40-45 MPH possible in areas closest to the wind headlines..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Nantucket from 9 AM-12 PM Thursday for the Thursday Morning high tide cycle for the potential of minor coastal flooding at the time of the Thursday Morning high tide cycle..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for the potential of minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Thursday Night..
..A Flood Watch is in effect for all of Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands and Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for a widespread 3-6″ of rain. Isolated higher amounts of up to 8″ are possible on Cape Cod and Plymouth County of Massachusetts with even some localized 10″ amounts possible. This will result in the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small river and stream flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely with this storm with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets centered in Southeast Massachusetts. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible during the day Thursday..

A long duration coastal storm is expected to affect Southern New England starting Wednesday Evening through Friday. The headlines depict the latest thinking with a conversion of the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for Cape Cod and the Islands and a Wind Advisory for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and a Flood Watch now posted for Southeast Massachusetts. Key factors for this long duration storm is as follows:

1.) The storm intensity and interaction of the storm with high pressure to the north and the strength and area affected for strong to damaging winds. At this time the strongest winds are expected in Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Coastal and perhaps some southeastern interior areas should closely monitor the progress of the strong to damaging winds. A closer track to the area could allow those winds to get stronger in those areas. With the expected very wet ground and stronger winds, the wind damage potential will bear watching.
2.) The storm track has held steady but all models are depicting the potential for very heavy rainfall for Southeast Massachusetts and the Flood Watch has been issued for that reason. Rainfall reports over the entire storm will be needed and flooding of urban and poor drainage areas are likely and perhaps also affecting rivers and small streams as well.
3.) The storm effects will last into Friday for both strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding and this will be covered in future coordination messages. The worst conditions at this time are expected on Thursday during the day and at night.
4.) While astronomical tides are low, wave action and the possibility for multiple high tide cycles of strong to damaging winds, building seas and waves will allow for some minor to moderate coastal flooding in the north and east facing areas of Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. This is another aspect that will bear watching. It is noted the Thursday Morning high tide could bring minor coastal flooding to Nantucket and a Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for that high tide for Nantucket.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible during the day Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 6 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory/Watch Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory/Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Wednesday Afternoon 10/9/19-Friday 10/11/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Long Duration Coastal Storm to Affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Afternoon with some strong winds in gusts to around 40 MPH with stronger and more damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding possible to likely particularly in Southeast New England Thursday into Friday..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning through late Thursday Night for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Other coastal areas near the High Wind Watch area should closely monitor the strong to damaging wind potential..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for the potential of minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Thursday Night..
..Heavy Rainfall of at least 1-3″ is possible in Southeast New England. Higher amounts are possible depending on the track, speed and intensity of the coastal storm..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible during the day Thursday..

A long duration coastal storm is expected to affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Afternoon and lasting through Thursday Night and possibly into Friday. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors for this long duration storm is as follows:

1.) The storm intensity and interaction of the storm with high pressure to the north and the strength and area affected for strong to damaging winds.
2.) The storm track which has been closer to Southern New England in recent model trends which could result in heavier rainfall in Southeast New England and the potential for stronger and more damaging winds in southeast New England with stronger winds potentially extending further north in Southern New England.
3.) The storm effects could last into Friday for both strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding and this will be covered in future coordination messages.
4.) While astronomical tides are low, wave action and the possibility for multiple high tide cycles of strong to damaging winds, building seas and waves will allow for some minor to moderate coastal flooding in the north and east facing areas of Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. This is another aspect that will bear watching.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible during the day Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box