Storm Coordination Message #1 – Late Wednesday Afternoon 10/9/19-Friday 10/11/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Long Duration Coastal Storm to Affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Afternoon with some strong winds in gusts to around 40 MPH with stronger and more damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding possible to likely particularly in Southeast New England Thursday into Friday..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect from Thursday Morning through late Thursday Night for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Other coastal areas near the High Wind Watch area should closely monitor the strong to damaging wind potential..
..A Coastal Flood Watch is now in effect from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for the potential of minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Thursday Night..
..Heavy Rainfall of at least 1-3″ is possible in Southeast New England. Higher amounts are possible depending on the track, speed and intensity of the coastal storm..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible during the day Thursday..

A long duration coastal storm is expected to affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Afternoon and lasting through Thursday Night and possibly into Friday. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors for this long duration storm is as follows:

1.) The storm intensity and interaction of the storm with high pressure to the north and the strength and area affected for strong to damaging winds.
2.) The storm track which has been closer to Southern New England in recent model trends which could result in heavier rainfall in Southeast New England and the potential for stronger and more damaging winds in southeast New England with stronger winds potentially extending further north in Southern New England.
3.) The storm effects could last into Friday for both strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding and this will be covered in future coordination messages.
4.) While astronomical tides are low, wave action and the possibility for multiple high tide cycles of strong to damaging winds, building seas and waves will allow for some minor to moderate coastal flooding in the north and east facing areas of Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. This is another aspect that will bear watching.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible during the day Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 11 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement, Coastal Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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