Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Evening 10/9/19-Friday 10/11/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Long Duration Coastal Storm to Affect Southern New England starting late Wednesday Afternoon with some strong winds in gusts to around 40 MPH with stronger and more damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding possible to likely particularly in Southeast New England Thursday into Friday..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 2 AM Thursday Morning through 600 AM Friday Morning for Cape Cod and the Islands for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60 MPH and isolated higher gusts likely. A Wind Advisory is in effect for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts from 2 AM Thursday Morning through 6 AM Friday Morning for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages. Other coastal areas near the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory areas should closely monitor the strong to damaging wind potential with wind gusts of 40-45 MPH possible in areas closest to the wind headlines..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for Nantucket from 9 AM-12 PM Thursday for the Thursday Morning high tide cycle for the potential of minor coastal flooding at the time of the Thursday Morning high tide cycle..
..A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands from Thursday Evening through late Thursday Night for the potential of minor to moderate coastal flooding at the time of high tide Thursday Night..
..A Flood Watch is in effect for all of Southeast Massachusetts including Cape Cod and the Islands and Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for a widespread 3-6″ of rain. Isolated higher amounts of up to 8″ are possible on Cape Cod and Plymouth County of Massachusetts with even some localized 10″ amounts possible. This will result in the potential for urban and poor drainage flooding and possibly small river and stream flooding..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely with this storm with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets centered in Southeast Massachusetts. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible during the day Thursday..

A long duration coastal storm is expected to affect Southern New England starting Wednesday Evening through Friday. The headlines depict the latest thinking with a conversion of the High Wind Watch to a High Wind Warning for Cape Cod and the Islands and a Wind Advisory for Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and a Flood Watch now posted for Southeast Massachusetts. Key factors for this long duration storm is as follows:

1.) The storm intensity and interaction of the storm with high pressure to the north and the strength and area affected for strong to damaging winds. At this time the strongest winds are expected in Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. Coastal and perhaps some southeastern interior areas should closely monitor the progress of the strong to damaging winds. A closer track to the area could allow those winds to get stronger in those areas. With the expected very wet ground and stronger winds, the wind damage potential will bear watching.
2.) The storm track has held steady but all models are depicting the potential for very heavy rainfall for Southeast Massachusetts and the Flood Watch has been issued for that reason. Rainfall reports over the entire storm will be needed and flooding of urban and poor drainage areas are likely and perhaps also affecting rivers and small streams as well.
3.) The storm effects will last into Friday for both strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal flooding and this will be covered in future coordination messages. The worst conditions at this time are expected on Thursday during the day and at night.
4.) While astronomical tides are low, wave action and the possibility for multiple high tide cycles of strong to damaging winds, building seas and waves will allow for some minor to moderate coastal flooding in the north and east facing areas of Eastern Plymouth County Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands. This is another aspect that will bear watching. It is noted the Thursday Morning high tide could bring minor coastal flooding to Nantucket and a Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect for that high tide for Nantucket.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible during the day Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 6 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory/Watch Statement, Flood Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory/Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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