Storm Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday Night 10/16/19-Thursday Late Afternoon 10/17/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Strong Coastal Storm system brings the threat of heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and even isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to Southern New England Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning with the potential of strong to damaging winds continuing through late Thursday Afternoon..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds and perhaps even the low risk of an isolated, brief tornado for late tonight and early Thursday Morning..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for Cape Cod and the Islands for Thursday Morning into Thursday Afternoon with a Wind Advisory in effect from 10 PM Wednesday Evening to 7 AM Thursday Morning for sustained winds 25-35 MPH with gusts to 50-55 MPH overnight and potentially as high as 60 MPH with isolated higher gusts Thursday. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 10 PM Wednesday Evening to 6 PM Thursday Evening for South Coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island including Eastern Kent County Rhode Island for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from Midnight to 6 PM Thursday for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 25-35 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH and isolated higher gusts. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 7 AM to 5 PM Thursday for Western Essex, Southern Worcester, Western Plymouth, Central Middlesex, Western Norfolk and Northern Bristol Counties of Massachusetts and Providence and Western Kent Counties of Rhode Island for sustained winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..Heavy Rainfall of 1-3″ is expected across much of Southern New England with isolated higher amounts of 3-4″ possible in localized areas. This rainfall may cause areas of localized urban and poor drainage flooding in most prone areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system overnight and during the day Thursday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible but would be focused on daytime operations as needed with overnight activity monitored by self-activation..

A strong coastal storm system will cause heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds across much of Southern New England with even the risk of isolated severe thunderstorms in Southeast New England with strong to damaging winds and an isolated brief tornado as potential threats. The heavy rainfall will be during the overnight hours and end near or before the Thursday Morning commute with the severe weather risk late tonight into early Thursday Morning before daybreak. The strong to damaging winds will occur overnight and again during the day on Thursday lasting into the late afternoon/early evening. The headlines depict current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Winds overnight could be strong to damaging and enhanced by convective heavy downpours and thunderstorms that can drag strong to damaging winds down to the surface and there is even the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms with even the risk of an isolated brief tornado in Southeast New England hence the marginal risk for severe weather in this area.
2.) Strong to damaging winds will occur on the back side of the storm system as it moves away from the area as well. The track of the storm system over Southern New England and the potential for more areas to be exposed to the east side of the system could allow for winds even higher than currently listed in the headlines of this message and will be watched closely.
3.) Strong winds could occur on Thursday as the storm departs across Western New England and this will be monitored and could result in Wind Advisory headlines.
4.) Understanding that the rainfall did not materialize from last week’s nor’easter, the track of this storm is very different and tracking over Southern New England increasing confidence for heavy rainfall. Given recent dry conditions, flooding should be confined to urban and poor drainage areas.
5.) With such a strong and dynamic system, it will bear close watching for higher impacts assuming the fully intensity modeled is realized and based on track guidance.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system overnight and during the day Thursday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible but would be focused on daytime operations as needed with overnight activity monitored by self-activation. Another coordination message will be posted by 9 PM EDT Wednesday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch/Wind Advisory Statement, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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