Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Night 10/16/19-Thursday 10/17/19 Coastal Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..Strong Coastal Storm system brings the threat of heavy rainfall, strong to damaging winds and even isolated strong to severe thunderstorms to Southern New England Wednesday Night into Thursday Morning with the potential of strong to damaging winds continuing through late Thursday Afternoon..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts in a marginal risk for severe weather with strong to damaging winds and perhaps even the low risk of an isolated, brief tornado for late tonight and early Thursday Morning..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 1 AM to 5 PM Thursday for Cape Cod and the Islands, Eastern Essex and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for sustained winds of 30-40 MPH with gusts to 60-65 MPH. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect from 10 PM Wednesday Evening to 6 PM Thursday Evening for the rest of the NWS Boston/Norton coverage area including Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island, Western, Central and the remainder of Eastern Massachusetts for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH and isolated higher wind gusts possible. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages..
..A Flood Watch is now in effect from 10 PM Wednesday Evening through Thursday Morning for Northern Connecticut, and Western and Central Massachusetts for rainfall of 2-3″ with locally higher amounts of up to 5″ possible. This rainfall may cause significant urban and poor drainage flooding. Due to recent dry conditions, most if not all small rivers and streams will remain in their banks..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system overnight and during the day Thursday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible but would be focused on daytime operations as needed with overnight activity monitored by self-activation. It is most likely we will use SKYWARN Self-Activation and remote monitoring of repeaters for rainfall reports, wind damage and wind gust measurement reports and any flooding reports..

A strong coastal storm system will cause heavy rainfall and strong to damaging winds across much of Southern New England with even the risk of isolated severe thunderstorms in Southeast New England with strong to damaging winds and an isolated brief tornado as potential threats. The heavy rainfall will be during the overnight hours and end near or before the Thursday Morning commute with the severe weather risk late tonight into early Thursday Morning before daybreak. The strong to damaging winds will occur overnight and again during the day on Thursday lasting into the late afternoon/early evening. The headlines depict current thinking with the key changes being a High Wind Warning for Cape Cod and the Islands, Eastern Plymouth and Eastern Essex Counties of Massachusetts, the expansion of the Wind Advisory across the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area and a Flood Watch for Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut. Key factors include:

1.) Winds overnight could be strong to damaging and enhanced by convective heavy downpours and thunderstorms that can drag strong to damaging winds down to the surface and there is even the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms with even the risk of an isolated brief tornado in Southeast New England hence the marginal risk for severe weather in this area.
2.) Strong to damaging winds will occur on the back side of the storm system as it moves away from the area as well. The track of the storm system over Southern New England and the potential for more areas to be exposed to the east side of the system has resulted in the Wind Advisory expansion as well as a conversion to High Wind Warnings for Cape Cod and the Islands and expanding those warnings into Eastern Essex and Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts.
3.) Understanding that the rainfall did not materialize from last week’s nor’easter, the track of this storm is very different and tracking over Southern New England increasing confidence for heavy rainfall. Given recent dry conditions, flooding should be confined to urban and poor drainage areas but could be widespread enough to cause an impact so a flood watch has been issued for this hazard.
4.) With such a strong and dynamic system, it will bear close watching for higher impacts assuming the fully intensity modeled is realized and based on track guidance.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the storm system overnight and during the day Thursday. Ops at NWS Boston/Norton are possible but would be focused on daytime operations as needed with overnight activity monitored by self-activation. It is most likely we will use SKYWARN Self-Activation and remote monitoring of repeaters for rainfall reports, wind damage and wind gust measurement reports and any flooding reports. This will be the last complete coordination message for this storm system. A shortened coordination message will be posted if Ops at NWS are initiated and time allows for an update. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Flood Watch Statement, SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Flood Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wgus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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