Storm Coordination Message #1 – Sunday Midday 12/1/19-Tuesday Morning 12/3/19 Significant Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..On behalf of the WX1BOX Amateur Radio team and NWS Boston/Norton forecasters, we hope everyone had a happy and safe Thanksgiving holiday..
..First significant winter storm of the 2019-2020 winter season likely for much of Southern New England starting around midday Sunday lasting through at least Monday Night and possibly into Tuesday Morning. The winter storm has the potential to bring 6″ or more of snow to the interior and some northeast coastal areas of Southern New England, more of a mix of rain and snow in Southeast New England, south and west of Boston to Providence as well as strong winds to coastal Southern New England..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from midday Sunday through Monday Evening for Franklin, Hampshire, Hampden, Worcester, Northern and Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 8-12″ of snow with higher amounts possible in the eastern slopes of the Berkshires..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut from midday Sunday through Monday Evening for 5-10″ of snow ice accumulations of up to two-tenths of an inch of ice as snow may mix with sleet and freezing rain for a time late Sunday Night through early Monday Morning before changing back to snow..
..A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from Midday Sunday through Monday Evening for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for 3-5″ of snow along the immediate coast with 4-8″ elsewhere and wind gusts as high as 40 MPH. This area could see a snow to wintry mix to rain back to snow scenario at the coast with a snow to wintry mix back to snow inland from the coast..
..Areas along the immediate southern and eastern edges of the Winter Storm Watch may see a wintry mix of precipitation sufficient for Winter Weather Advisories to be posted and this will be monitored. Strong wind gusts of 40-50 MPH are possible in Southeast coastal New England depending on the speed, track and intensity of the coastal storm..
..The coastal flood threat is minimal due to low astronomical tides despite a long duration of east and northeast winds in the area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor this storm system with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton possible to likely over portions of this long duration storm event. Further details on the activation plan will be determined over the course of the day Saturday into early Sunday Morning..

The first significant winter storm of the 2019-2020 winter season is appearing likely for Southern New England. The winter storm will significantly impact the Sunday Afternoon and evening travel for travelers returning from Thanksgiving and could significantly impact the Monday Morning and evening commutes. The headlines depict current thinking and there is still spread in the models right now concerning the track and speed of this coastal storm. Key factors for this storm include:

1.) The storm track will be crucial and with the storm track, the amount of cold air with this system. Some very reliable models including the European model suite is depicting more colder air and a heavier snow scenario. Other models are warmer with a closer to Southern New England coast track. As we move into Saturday, model guidance will come into better agreement and that will adjust snow, wintry mix and rain amounts across the entire region.
2.) The speed of the system and its ability to keep heavier snow going. This is expected to be a long duration storm system with a storm track slowly moving eastward south of the coast. If the system’s slow track verifies and is able to wrap around good moisture and heavy precipitation, this could mean heavier snow amounts in interior southern New England depending on key factor 1 on the storm track.
3.) The storm intensity which will impact key factor 2 particularly if slow moving.
4.) The strength of the winds will hinge on key factors 2 and 3.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor this storm system with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton possible to likely over portions of this long duration storm event. Further details on the activation plan will be determined over the course of the day Saturday into early Sunday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Saturday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snow and Ice maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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