Storm Coordination Message #3 – Sunday Morning 12/1/19-Tuesday Morning 12/3/19

Hello to all…

..First significant winter storm of the 2019-2020 winter season likely for much of Southern New England starting around midday Sunday lasting through at least Monday Night and possibly into Tuesday Morning. The winter storm continues to have the potential to bring 6″ or more of snow to the interior and some northeast coastal areas of Southern New England with the potential of 10″ or more of snow in northern and western Massachusetts, more of a mix of rain and snow in Southeast New England, south and west of Boston to Providence as well as strong winds to coastal Southern New England..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 11 AM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday for Franklin, Western Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 10-18″ of snow..
..A Winter Storm Watch is remains in effect from Sunday Morning to Tuesday Morning for Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Southern Worcester, Central Middlesex and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 8-14″ of snow and up to one tenth inch of ice..
..A Winter Storm Watch is remains in effect for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut from Sunday Morning to Tuesday Morning for 5-10″ of snow ice accumulations of up to two-tenths of an inch of ice as snow may mix with sleet and freezing rain for a time late Sunday Night through early Monday Morning before changing back to snow..
..A Winter Storm Watch is remains in effect from Sunday Morning to Tuesday Moring for Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Norfolk and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts for 3-5″ of snow along the immediate coast with 6-12″ elsewhere and wind gusts as high as 40 MPH. This area could see a snow to wintry mix to rain back to snow scenario at the coast with a snow to wintry mix back to snow inland from the coast..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 11 AM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday for Windham County Connecticut and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for 3-6″ of snow and around one-tenth of an inch of ice..
..Other areas of Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island will see snow change to rain and then potentially back to snow before ending. Strong wind gusts of 40-50 MPH are possible in Southeast coastal New England depending on the speed, track and intensity of the coastal storm late Sunday Night into Tuesday Morning potentially prompting Wind Advisories…
..The coastal flood threat is minimal due to low astronomical tides despite a long duration of east and northeast winds in the area but this will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor this storm system with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton possible to likely over portions of this long duration storm event. Further details on the activation plan will be determined Saturday Evening into early Sunday Morning..

The first significant winter storm of the 2019-2020 winter season still appears likely for Southern New England. The winter storm will significantly impact the Sunday Afternoon and evening travel for travelers returning from Thanksgiving and could significantly impact the Monday Morning and evening commutes. The headlines depict current thinking and there is still spread in the models right now concerning the track and speed of this coastal storm hence why Winter Storm Watches remain posted for much of the area and the only change was for Winter Weather Advisories Windham County Connecticut and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island. Key factors for this storm include and remain the following:

1.) The storm track will be crucial and with the storm track, the amount of cold air with this system. Some very reliable models including the European model suite is depicting more colder air and a heavier snow scenario. Other models are warmer with a closer to Southern New England coast track. As we move into Saturday Night and Sunday, model guidance will come into better agreement and that will adjust snow, wintry mix and rain amounts across the entire region.
2.) The speed of the system and its ability to keep heavier snow going. This is expected to be a long duration storm system with a storm track slowly moving eastward south of the coast. If the system’s slow track verifies and is able to wrap around good moisture and heavy precipitation, this could mean heavier snow amounts in interior southern New England depending on key factor 1 on the storm track.
3.) The storm intensity which will impact key factor 2 particularly if slow moving.
4.) The strength of the winds will hinge on key factors 2 and 3.

SKYWARN Self-Activation is likely to monitor this storm system with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton possible to likely over portions of this long duration storm event. Further details on the activation plan will be determined Saturday evening into early Sunday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snow and Ice maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Watch/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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