Storm Coordination Message #4 – Sunday Afternoon 12/1/19-Tuesday Morning 12/3/19

Hello to all…

..First significant winter storm of the 2019-2020 winter season likely for much of Southern New England starting around midday Sunday lasting through at least Monday Night and possibly into Tuesday Morning. The winter storm continues to have the potential to bring 6″ or more of snow to the interior and some northeast coastal areas of Southern New England with the potential of 10″ or more of snow in northern and western Massachusetts, more of a mix of rain and snow in Southeast New England, south and west of Boston to Providence as well as strong winds to coastal Southern New England..
..A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect from 11 AM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday for Franklin, Western Hampshire, Western Hampden, Northern Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts for 10-16″ of snow and up to one-tenth inch of ice. A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect for from 11 AM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday for Central Middlesex County Massachusetts for 9-12″ of snow and one-tenth of an inch of ice..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 11 AM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday for Hartford and Tolland Counties of Connecticut for 4-11″ of snow and one-tenth to one-quarter inch of ice. The snow and ice will fall over a greater than 24 hour period resulting in a prolonged event such that it classifies as advisory criteria..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 11 AM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday for Eastern Hampden, Eastern Hampshire, Southern Worcester and Western Essex Counties of Massachusetts for 8-12″ of snow with isolated higher amounts and up to one-tenth inch of ice. The snow and ice will fall over a greater than 24 hour period resulting in a prolonged event such that it classifies as advisory criteria..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 11 AM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday for Eastern Essex, Norfolk, Southeast Middlesex and Suffolk Counties Massachusetts for 3-6″ of snow and 7-11″ of snow inland with up to one-tenth inch of ice. Wind Gusts to around 40 MPH are likely especially at the coast. The snow and ice will fall over a greater than 24 hout period resulting a prolonged event that it classifies as advisory criteria..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 11 AM Sunday to 7 AM Tuesday for Windham County Connecticut and Northwest Providence County Rhode Island for 3-8″ of snow and around one-tenth or two-tenths of an inch of ice..
..In all Winter Storm Warning and advisory areas, the consistency of the snow will start out normal and then become heavy and wet along with the ice. This combination may result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages that will be monitored..
..Other areas of Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island will see snow change to rain and then potentially back to snow before ending. Strong wind gusts of 40-50 MPH are possible in Southeast coastal New England late Sunday Night into Tuesday Morning potentially prompting Wind Advisories…
..The coastal flood threat is minimal due to low astronomical tides despite a long duration of east and northeast winds in the area but this will be monitored..
..SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence from 4 PM Sunday Afternoon to around 1 AM Monday Morning with Amateur Radio Call-up Nets during this timeframe. SKYWARN Self-Activation will continue to monitor the storm through Monday into Tuesday Morning with Amateur Radio Call-Up nets occurring as needed. WX1BOX Amateur Radio Ops may be considered again for a portion of Monday depending on the intensity of precipitation as the storm intensifies and moves out of the region..

The first significant winter storm of the 2019-2020 winter season still appears likely for Southern New England. The winter storm will significantly impact the Sunday Afternoon and evening travel for travelers returning from Thanksgiving and will have some impacts the Monday Morning and evening commutes. The headlines depict current thinking. Winter Storm Warnings have been expanded to cover Central Middlesex County Massachusetts. Much of the rest of the Winter Storm Watch area has been converted to Winter Weather Advisories though total snowfall for the entire event Tuesday Morning could be greater than 6″ in various parts of the advisory area. The reason for the advisories versus warnings is those snow amounts will pile up over an extended period of time where as the warning area will see the higher totals in a shorter timeframe. There still remains discrepancies in the model guidance on the amount of warming that occurs with some reliable guidance indicating colder conditions while other reliable guidance depicting warmer conditions Key factors have been updated a bit and are as follows:

1.) The storm track will be crucial and with the storm track, the amount of cold air with this system. Some very reliable models including the European model suite is depicting more colder air and a heavier snow scenario. Other models are warmer with a closer to Southern New England coast track. The headlines depict current thinking but changes in snow and ice amounts will be ongoing. Spotter reports will be key in helping make these changes for this storm event.
2.) The speed of the system and its ability to keep heavier snow going. This is expected to be a long duration storm system with a storm track slowly moving eastward south of the coast. Some model guidance indicates a stronger backlash snow for eastern areas as cold air moves back in but other model guidance does not show this due to a lack of moisture. This aspect will bear watching.
3.) Within the warning and advisory areas, the consistency of snow and extent of ice accumulation could result in isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages. This will bear watching throughout the storm event.
4.) The strength of the winds at the coast will continued to be monitored for Wind Advisories. Wind gusts to around 40 MPH are likely at the coast with the potential to hit Wind Advisory levels.

SKYWARN Activation with Ops at NWS Boston/Norton will commence from 4 PM Sunday Afternoon to around 1 AM Monday Morning with Amateur Radio Call-up Nets during this timeframe. SKYWARN Self-Activation will continue to monitor the storm through Monday into Tuesday Morning with Amateur Radio Call-Up nets occurring as needed. WX1BOX Amateur Radio Ops may be considered again for a portion of Monday depending on the intensity of precipitation as the storm intensifies and moves out of the region. We are planning Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets on some of the main repeaters during the course of the late afternoon/evening hours. Rough start timeframes are as follows:

Western Mass/Northern Connecticut: 4-5 PM
Central Mass: 6-7 PM
Eastern Mass/Rhode Island: 8-9 PM

Check your main SKYWARN Amateur Radio repeater for updates.

This will be the last scheduled update for this winter storm event as we move into operations mode. If time allows and significant changes occur, we’ll post interim storm updates given the duration of the event. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snow and Ice maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snowfall Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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