Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Friday 3/20/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut late Friday Afternoon and early evening between 4-8 PM. Strong to Damaging Winds, heavy downpours and the possibility of a rotating storm are the primary threats. Its noted that there may not be much lightning with the activity..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening..

An unseasonably mild day will set the stage for the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms along and ahead of a strong cold front that will sweep through the region and bring colder air for this weekend. The key factors on the severe weather potential include the following:

1.) This will be a low instability/high shear environment. Given the low instability, it will be a question of whether the high shear is enough to compensate for somewhat limited instability.
2.) Amount of cloud cover/showers during the day and how that affects heating for temperatures to reach the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. This will impact the level of instability even though it will likely still be fairly low but still will be a key factor in the severe weather potential and if the high shear environment can compensate for the lower instability.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Friday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Area Forecast Discussion and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200319_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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