Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday Afternoon/Evening 4/21/20 Severe Weather and Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all..

..A Strong Cold front will have the potential to bring Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and hail as the main threats during Tuesday Afternoon and Early Evening and strong to damaging post frontal winds Tuesday Evening and to a lesser extent Wednesday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with Central and Southern Connecticut and Southwest Rhode Island in a slight risk for severe weather..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Northeast Connecticut, Rhode Island, Eastern Essex, Southeast Middlesex, Suffolk, Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts from 2-7 PM Tuesday and for Cape Cod and the Islands from 2-9 PM for sustained winds of 15-25 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. The Wind Advisory for Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut is cancelled but wind gusts to around 40 MPH with isolated higher gusts are possible. These winds will have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential and strong to damaging wind potential Tuesday Afternoon into Tuesday Night..

A strong cold front will move across the region on Tuesday and bring unusually cold air into the region. Ahead of the cold front is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and then along and behind the front is the potential for strong to damaging winds. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Surface based instability is limited, however, there will be a significant cold pool of air aloft and very strong winds aloft which will likely compensate for the lack of surface instability allowing for strong to severe thunderstorm development. There have already been numerous reports of small hail in Southern Connecticut with some morning shower and thunderstorm activity and we could see some of this activity late this morning into early this afternoon before the main cold front and possible squall line swings through the region.
2.) If there is greater surface instability, that would increase the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms given other favorable parameters.
3.) Strong winds behind the cold front will be near or just above advisory levels with the greatest risk of strong wind gusts and will last into the first half of Wednesday and cause isolated pockets of wind damage. The strongest winds will be Tuesday Afternoon into early evening with the strongest winds in Northeast Connecticut, Rhode Island and East Coastal and Southeastern Massachusetts. The Wind Advisory has been dropped in Western and Central Massachusetts and Northwest and North-Central Connecticut but wind gusts of 40 MPH with isolated higher wind gusts are possible there for this afternoon and tonight. As we move into Wednesday, there will be wind gusts of around 40 MPH particularly in the first half of the day.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential and strong to damaging wind potential Tuesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Morning. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm/Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Tuesday PM 4/21/20-Wednesday AM 4/22/20 Severe Weather/Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all..

..A Strong Cold front will have the potential to bring Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms with strong to damaging winds and hail as the main threats during Tuesday Afternoon and Early Evening and strong to damaging post frontal winds Tuesday Evening into Wednesday Morning. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather with Central and Southern Connecticut and Southwest Rhode Island in a slight risk for severe weather..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area from 5 PM Tuesday to 3 AM Wednesday for sustained winds of 10-20 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds will have the potential to cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential and strong to damaging wind potential Tuesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Morning..

A strong cold front will move across the region on Tuesday and bring unusually cold air into the region. Ahead of the cold front is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms and then along and behind the front is the potential for strong to damaging winds. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Surface based instability is limited, however, there will be a significant cold pool of air aloft and very strong winds aloft which will likely compensate for the lack of surface instability allowing for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) If there is greater surface instability, that would increase the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms given other favorable parameters.
3.) Strong winds behind the cold front will be near or just above advisory levels and will last into the first half of Wednesday and cause isolated pockets of wind damage.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential and strong to damaging wind potential Tuesday Afternoon into early Wednesday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 AM Tuesday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory, Hazardous weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200420_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #2 – Friday Night 4/17/20-Saturday Morning 4/18/20 Winter Storm Potential

Hello to all…

..A mid-April light to moderate snowstorm for interior Southern New England is possible to likely Friday Night into Saturday Morning. Heaviest snow is expected in interior Southern New England and especially the higher terrain but model trends have turned a bit colder with some snow accumulation in interior Southeast New England now expected and the snow is expected to be heavy and wet and in areas where snow accumulates greater than 3″, isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated power outages could develop..
..A Winter Storm Warning is now in effect from 9 PM Friday Night through 12 PM Saturday for Western Franklin, Western Hampshire, Western Hampden and Worcester Counties of Massachusetts for 4-7″ of snow with isolated higher amounts especially in the higher elevations. The snow will be heavy and wet and will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and power outages..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 11 PM Friday Night through 10 AM Saturday Morning for Northern Connecticut, Northwest Providence County RI, Eastern Franklin, Eastern Hampshire, Eastern Hampden, Essex, Suffolk, Middlesex, and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts for 2-5″ of snow with isolated higher amounts in higher elevations. The snow will be heavy and wet with isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages in areas that receive more than 3″ of snow..
..A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect from 1-10 AM Saturday for Southeast Providence County RI, North-Central Bristol and North-Central Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts for 1-4″ of snow. If snowfall amounts of 3-4″ occur, there could be isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages in this area..
..Areas outside of the Winter Weather Advisory area along Southeast Coastal Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Cape Cod and the Islands will receive a coating to 2″ of snow. It is noted some models bring some higher amounts in these areas and will be monitored but current projections are for 2″ or less of snow at this time..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor for snowfall total reports and wet snow damage reports Friday Night into Saturday Morning with primary emphasis on Amateur Radio call-up nets after 4-5 AM Saturday Morning though checks on area SKYWARN Amateur Radio repeaters, the *NEW-ENG3* Echolink conference 9123, IRLP 9123 New England reflector system and possibly DMR could occur any time during the Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory timeframes. Pictures of this storm can be sent as a reply to this email, via our Facebook/Twitter social media feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org..

A storm system will affect interior Southern New England with accumulating wet snow as rain changes over to snow during Friday Night and could come down heavily for a period of time during the overnight hours. The headlines depict current thinking. Key factors for this storm system are as follows:

1.) Models are varying in where the heaviest snow will fall but has trended colder in recent runs. The heaviest snow is favored for Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and parts of Northern Connecticut with lighter but accumulating snow in parts of Northern Rhode Island and interior Southeast Massachusetts. Coastal areas will get the least amount of snow but will need to be monitored during the storm event for higher accumulations as some models bring more than a coating to 2″ of snow to coastal areas.
2.) The snow will be heavy and wet which will cut down on the snowfall to liquid water ratios but it also means any snowfall of 3″ or more could cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages and this potential will need to be monitored. This is especially true for the higher elevations of interior Southern New England where the higher snow amounts are likely of around 6-7″ with isolated higher amounts.
3.) The snow will fall mostly overnight into early Saturday Morning. Given the timeframe, its a favorable factor for snow accumulation and could impact some roadways.
4.) How much cold air is available for snow accumulation and when does the changeover from rain to snow occur. This will be a factor in total snowfall and the current trend has been for colder conditions which means a bit more snow accumulation.
5.) There is greater potential for there to be a few hour period of 1″ per hour snowfall based on the model guidance for interior Southern New England. Coastal New England could see a rain/snow mix changing to snow with a coating to 2″ of snow on the grass being the most likely outcome but trends again will be monitored for a snowier scenario given the colder trend in the models.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for snowfall total reports and wet snow damage reports Friday Night into Saturday Morning. This will likely be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode but if a significant change occurs and time allows for an update, another update could be posted by 11 PM Friday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement, NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snow and Ice Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Winter Storm Warning/Winter Weather Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snow and Ice Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Friday Night 4/17/20-Saturday Morning 4/18/20 Winter Storm Event

Hello to all…

..A mid-April light to moderate snowstorm for interior Southern New England is possible to likely Friday Night into Saturday Morning. Position of the heaviest snow is still in question and the snow is expected to be heavy and wet and if its able to accumulate greater than 4″, isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated power outages could develop..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for snowfall total reports and wet snow damage reports Friday Night into Saturday Morning..

A storm system will affect interior Southern New England with accumulating wet snow as rain changes over to snow during Friday Night. The highest chance for snowfall in the area of 2-5″ with isolated higher amounts would be over portions of Northern Connecticut and Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts at this time. This could shift as we get closer to the storm event. Key factors for this storm system are as follows:

1.) Models are varying in where the heaviest snow will fall. Some models favor Western, Central and interior Northeast Massachusetts and parts of Northern Connecticut. Other models including European guidance have interior Connecticut, Rhode Island and interior Southeast Massachusetts for this band of heavier snow. This will be monitored in future model guidance.
2.) The snow will be heavy and wet which will cut down on the snowfall to liquid water ratios but it also means any snowfall of 4″ or more could cause isolated pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated power outages and this potential will need to be monitored. This is especially true for the higher elevations of interior Southern New England.
3.) The snow will fall mostly overnight into early Saturday Morning. Given the timeframe, its a favorable factor for snow accumulation and could impact some roadways.
4.) How much cold air is available for snow accumulation and when does the changeover from rain to snow occur. This will be a factor in total snowfall.
5.) There could be a few hour period of 1″ per hour snowfall based on the model guidance for interior Southern New England. Coastal New England could see a rain/snow mix but little if any snow accumulation at this time.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor for snowfall total reports and wet snow damage reports Friday Night into Saturday Morning. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Snow and Ice Maps:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Snow and Ice Maps:
https://www.weather.gov/box/winter

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #3 – Monday 4/13/20 – Damaging Wind/Severe Thunderstorm/Heavy Rainfall Potential

Hello to all…

..A powerful storm system on Monday is on track bring the potential for widespread strong to damaging winds, heavy downpours and the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England. This will bear watching given the ongoing COVID-19 crisis response in the region..
..A High Wind Warning is now in effect for sustained winds of 25-40 MPH with gusts of 65-70 MPH and isolated to scattered high wind gusts likely particularly in Southeast Massachusetts and Rhode Island. The timeframe for the warning is 12-7 PM Monday for Northern Connecticut, Hampden, Hampshire, Worcester and Northern Middlesex Counties of Massachusetts, 1 to 7 PM for Providence County Rhode Island, 1-10 PM for the rest of Rhode Island, 3-10 PM for Bristol, Plymouth and Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts, 3-7 PM for Essex, Central and Southeast Middlesex and Suffolk Counties of Massachusetts, and 4-10 PM for Cape Cod and the Islands. These winds could cause scattered to numerous trees and wires to come down and scattered to numerous power outages..
..A Wind Advisory is now in effect for Franklin County Massachusetts from 12-8 PM Monday for sustained winds 15-20 MPH with gusts to 55 MPH. These winds will cause isolated to scattered pockets of tree and wire damage and isolated to scattered power outages..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed areas from Southeast New York, the New York City area , extreme Western Connecticut and points south in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather for Monday. This risk area could move further north into portions Southern New England in future updates and will be monitored..
..Heavy downpours and potential thunderstorms are expected to drop 1-2″ of rain across much of the region with isolated amounts of greater than 2″ of rain possible. This could lead to urban and poor drainage flooding in the most flood prone areas. The Weather Prediction Center has continued much of New England in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..Coastal Flooding is not anticipated across the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island but elevated water levels at the time of high tide are possible in this area and will be monitored closely..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Monday for the strong to damaging winds, strong to severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall potential. Pictures of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this email, via our Facebook/Twitter feed or via the email address pics@nsradio.org..

A powerful storm system is on track to affect the region on Monday and will bring the potential for strong to very damaging winds for much of the region and even another potential round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict the latest thinking which continues to grow in confidence particularly on the damaging wind threat. The three main key factors for this storm event remain as follows:

1.) The extent of strong to damaging winds and the ability for the winds to reach the surface both ahead of the storm system, in convective showers and downpours and in any strong to severe thunderstorms. At this time, higher end wind gusts are expected and is what’s modeled by most of the reliable model guidance given the strength of the storm system, the expected warmer temperatures and the mixing of the stronger winds to the surface in heavier downpours and any thunderstorms.
2.) The extent of strong to severe thunderstorm coverage in the region. At this time, general thunderstorms are forecast and the gradient winds will be the predominant wind damage threat with severe thunderstorms expected to be further south and east of our coverage area but there is still a possibility of severe thunderstorms possibly getting into parts of the region and will be monitored in future updates.
3.) Rainfall will be heavy at times but also moving fairly rapidly across the region. Nonetheless, given how heavy the rain could fall in areas of Southern New England, rainfall amounts of 1-2″ with isolated to scattered rainfall amounts of 2″ or more are possible. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding in parts of the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Monday for the strong to damaging winds, strong to severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall potential. Pictures of storm damage can be sent as a reply to this email, via our Facebook/Twitter feed or via the email address pics@nsradio.org. The SKYWARN Coordinator team will doing as much as we can to monitor area Amateur Radio repeaters and the *NEW-ENG3* Echolink conference node 9123/IRLP 9123 reflector system. We will attempt to monitor the SKYWARN DMR channel for New England as well depending on volunteer Amateur Radio resources. Another coordination message will be posted by 1100 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, Excessive Rainfall Outlook and Facebook Infographic:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Warning/Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographic:
http://wx1box.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/93111680_2866722356755450_3275280663372103680_o.png

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #2 – Monday 4/13/20 – Damaging Wind/Severe Thunderstorm/Heavy Rainfall Potential

Hello to all…

..A powerful storm system on Monday will bring the potential for widespread strong to damaging winds, heavy downpours and the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England. This will bear watching given the ongoing COVID-19 crisis response in the region..
..A High Wind Watch remains in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton coverage area from Monday Morning to Monday Evening for sustained winds of 25-40 MPH with gusts of 65 MPH and isolated to scattered high wind gusts likely. These winds could cause scattered to numerous trees and wires to come down and scattered to numerous power outages..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed areas from Southeast New York and the New York City area and points south in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather for Monday. This risk area could move further north into portions Southern New England in future updates and will be monitored..
..Heavy downpours and potential thunderstorms are expected to drop 1-2″ of rain across much of the region with isolated amounts of greater than 2″ of rain possible. This could lead to urban and poor drainage flooding in the most flood prone areas. The Weather Prediction Center has placed much of New England in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Monday for the strong to damaging winds, strong to severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall potential..

A powerful storm system is on track to affect the region on Monday and will bring the potential for strong to very damaging winds for much of the region and even another potential round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict the latest thinking. The three main key factors for this storm event are as follows:

1.) The extent of strong to damaging winds and the ability for the winds to reach the surface both ahead of the storm system, in convective showers and downpours and in any strong to severe thunderstorms.
2.) The extent of strong to severe thunderstorm coverage in the region.
3.) Rainfall will be heavy at times but also moving fairly rapidly across the region. Nonetheless, given how heavy the rain could fall in areas of Southern New England, rainfall amounts of 1-2″ with isolated to scattered rainfall amounts of 2″ or more are possible. This could result in urban and poor drainage flooding in parts of the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Monday for the strong to damaging winds and strong to severe thunderstorm and excessive rainfall potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 PM Sunday Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and Excessive Rainfall Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

WPC Day-2 Excessive Rainfall Outlook:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #1 – Monday 4/13/20 – Strong to Damaging Wind and Severe Thunderstorm Potential

Hello to all…

..A powerful storm system on Monday will bring the potential for widespread strong to damaging winds, heavy downpours and the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for much of Southern New England. This will bear watching given the ongoing COVID-19 crisis response in the region..
..A High Wind Watch is now in effect for the entire NWS Boston/Norton coverage area from Monday Morning to Monday Evening for sustained winds of 25-40 MPH with gusts of 65 MPH and isolated to scattered high wind gusts likely. These winds could cause scattered to numerous trees and wires to come down and scattered to numerous power outages..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed areas from Southeast New York and the New York City area and points south in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather for Monday. This risk area could move further north into portions Southern New England in future updates and will be monitored..
..Heavy downpours and potential thunderstorms are expected to drop 1-2″ of rain across much of the region. This could lead to urban and poor drainage flooding in the most flood prone areas..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Monday for the strong to damaging winds and strong to severe thunderstorm potential..

A powerful storm system will affect the region on Monday and will bring the potential for strong to very damaging winds for much of the region and even another potential round for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for portions of Southern New England. The headlines depict the latest thinking. The two main key factor for this storm event are as follows:

1.) The extent of strong to damaging winds and the ability for the winds to reach the surface both ahead of the storm system, in convective showers and downpours and in any strong to severe thunderstorms.
2.) The extent of strong to severe thunderstorm coverage in the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets are likely Monday for the strong to damaging winds and strong to severe thunderstorm potential. Another coordination message will be posted by 1030 AM Sunday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton High Wind Watch Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Storm Coordination Message #3 – Thursday 4/9/20-Friday 4/10/20 – Minor Coastal Flooding/Severe Weather/Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all…

..Several high tide cycles of minor coastal flooding expected over both south and east facing coastal areas late tonight through Friday Morning along with rain heavy at times and the potential for thunderstorms and possibly isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and strong to damaging winds as the main threats for Thursday. Strong to damaging winds are then possible Thursday Night into Friday across much of Southern New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued to place portions of Southwest, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts through Rhode Island and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather Thursday. Timeframe is in the mid-morning to mid-afternoon timeframe..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect from 4 PM to 9 PM Thursday for the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated power outages. Strong wind gusts up to 40 MPH could continue into Friday for the coverage area..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM Friday for Eastern Essex County, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts and Eastern Kent, Bristol, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding of shore roads and a few road closures at the time of multiple high tide cycles during the timeframes specified..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout the next 2-day period around the various high tide cycles for minor coastal flooding as well as for rainfall reports over the 2 day period, any strong to severe thunderstorms that develop on Thursday and general strong to damaging wind potential Thursday Night into Friday..

A coastal storm with a prolonged period of the unsettled weather including rainfall, several high tide cycles of minor coastal flooding over portions of the south and east facing coastal areas and the potential for stronger thunderstorms including isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Thursday and strong to damaging winds Thursday Night into Friday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for this event include:

1.) Ability for stronger convection and thunderstorms to develop on Thursday in a low instability, high shear environment. Hail and strong to damaging winds would be the main threats.
2.) Ability for thunderstorms if they develop and become strong enough to break the inversion and transport stronger winds down to the surface.
3.) Position of the warm front and how much of the region can get into the warm sector for strong to severe thunderstorm development. The greatest risk is in the New York City area and points south but some models bring severe thunderstorm risk into portions of Southern New England and that is why a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms remains for our area.
4.) Wind Advisories are now posted for late Thursday Afternoon into Thursday Night for wind gusts to 50 MPH. Winds of up to 40 MPH may continue through Friday Night. These winds could cause isolated pockets of wind damage.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout the next 2-day period around the various high tide cycles for minor coastal flooding as well as for rainfall reports over the 2 day period and any strong to severe thunderstorms that develop particularly on Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted either Thursday Night or Friday Morning as needed as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Night 4/8/20-Friday 4/10/20 – Minor Coastal Flooding/Severe Weather/Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all…

..Several high tide cycles of minor coastal flooding expected over both south and east facing coastal areas late tonight through Friday Morning along with rain heavy at times and the potential for thunderstorms and possibly isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and strong to damaging winds as the main threats for Thursday. Strong to damaging winds are then possible Thursday Night into Friday across much of Southern New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed portions of Southwest, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts through Rhode Island and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather Thursday. Timeframe is in the mid-morning to mid-afternoon timeframe..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM Friday for Eastern Essex County, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts and Eastern Kent, Bristol, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding of shore roads and a few road closures at the time of multiple high tide cycles during the timeframes specified..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout the next 2-day period around the various high tide cycles for minor coastal flooding as well as for rainfall reports over the 2 day period, any strong to severe thunderstorms that develop on Thursday and general strong to damaging wind potential Thursday Night into Friday..

A coastal storm with a prolonged period of the unsettled weather including rainfall, several high tide cycles of minor coastal flooding over portions of the south and east facing coastal areas and the potential for stronger thunderstorms including isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Thursday and strong to damaging winds Thursday Night into Friday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for this event include:

1.) Ability for stronger convection and thunderstorms to develop on Thursday in a low instability, high shear environment.
2.) Ability for thunderstorms if they develop and become strong enough to break the inversion and transport stronger winds down to the surface.
3.) How strong winds will be Thursday Night and Friday as the storm system moves out of the region.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout the next 2-day period around the various high tide cycles for minor coastal flooding as well as for rainfall reports over the 2 day period and any strong to severe thunderstorms that develop particularly on Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Thursday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200408_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Storm Coordination Message #1 – Coastal Flooding and Thunderstorm Potential Wednesday 4/8/20-Friday 4/10/20

Hello to all…

..Several days of unsettled weather with period of rain, heavy at times, several high tide cycles of minor coastal flooding expected over both south and east facing coastal areas and the potential for non-severe thunderstorms on Wednesday with thunderstorms and possibly isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Thursday..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory is now in effect from 8 PM this evening through 8 AM Friday for Eastern Essex County Massachusetts, from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 AM Friday for Eastern Plymouth and Barnstable County Massachusetts and from 8 PM Wednesday to 8 AM Friday for Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk Counties of Massachusetts and Eastern Kent, Bristol, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding of shore roads and a few road closures at the time of multiple high tide cycles during the timeframes specified..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout the next 2-day period around the various high tide cycles for minor coastal flooding as well as for rainfall reports over the 2 day period and any strong to severe thunderstorms that develop particularly on Thursday..

A coastal storm with a prolonged period of the unsettled weather including rainfall, several high tide cycles of minor coastal flooding over portions of the south and east facing coastal areas and the potential for non-severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and the potential for stronger thunderstorms including isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Thursday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Further key factors for the various weather hazards will be determined in the next coordination message update.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout the next 2-day period around the various high tide cycles for minor coastal flooding as well as for rainfall reports over the 2 day period and any strong to severe thunderstorms that develop particularly on Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-3 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://beta.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

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