Storm Coordination Message #3 – Thursday 4/9/20-Friday 4/10/20 – Minor Coastal Flooding/Severe Weather/Strong Wind Potential

Hello to all…

..Several high tide cycles of minor coastal flooding expected over both south and east facing coastal areas late tonight through Friday Morning along with rain heavy at times and the potential for thunderstorms and possibly isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and strong to damaging winds as the main threats for Thursday. Strong to damaging winds are then possible Thursday Night into Friday across much of Southern New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued to place portions of Southwest, South-Central and Southeast Massachusetts through Rhode Island and Connecticut in a marginal risk for severe weather Thursday. Timeframe is in the mid-morning to mid-afternoon timeframe..
..A Wind Advisory is in effect from 4 PM to 9 PM Thursday for the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area for sustained winds of 20-30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. These winds will cause isolated pockets of tree and power line damage and isolated power outages. Strong wind gusts up to 40 MPH could continue into Friday for the coverage area..
..A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect through 8 AM Friday for Eastern Essex County, Suffolk, Eastern Norfolk Eastern Plymouth, Barnstable Counties of Massachusetts and Eastern Kent, Bristol, Washington and Newport Counties of Rhode Island for minor coastal flooding of shore roads and a few road closures at the time of multiple high tide cycles during the timeframes specified..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout the next 2-day period around the various high tide cycles for minor coastal flooding as well as for rainfall reports over the 2 day period, any strong to severe thunderstorms that develop on Thursday and general strong to damaging wind potential Thursday Night into Friday..

A coastal storm with a prolonged period of the unsettled weather including rainfall, several high tide cycles of minor coastal flooding over portions of the south and east facing coastal areas and the potential for stronger thunderstorms including isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms for Thursday and strong to damaging winds Thursday Night into Friday. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for this event include:

1.) Ability for stronger convection and thunderstorms to develop on Thursday in a low instability, high shear environment. Hail and strong to damaging winds would be the main threats.
2.) Ability for thunderstorms if they develop and become strong enough to break the inversion and transport stronger winds down to the surface.
3.) Position of the warm front and how much of the region can get into the warm sector for strong to severe thunderstorm development. The greatest risk is in the New York City area and points south but some models bring severe thunderstorm risk into portions of Southern New England and that is why a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms remains for our area.
4.) Wind Advisories are now posted for late Thursday Afternoon into Thursday Night for wind gusts to 50 MPH. Winds of up to 40 MPH may continue through Friday Night. These winds could cause isolated pockets of wind damage.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor conditions throughout the next 2-day period around the various high tide cycles for minor coastal flooding as well as for rainfall reports over the 2 day period and any strong to severe thunderstorms that develop particularly on Thursday. Another coordination message will be posted either Thursday Night or Friday Morning as needed as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement, Coastal Flood Advisory Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Wind Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Coastal Flood Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.whus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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