Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 5/11/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely across Southern New England Monday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, heavy downpours and frequent lightning are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Monday. The greatest risk for severe weather is along, north and west of the I-95 corridor but all areas should monitor. The timeframe for the potential is 1-8 PM ET Monday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Note for Rhode Island SKYWARN Amateur Radio Operations, SKYWARN Net activity will be on the NB1RI (formerly KA1RCI) repeater system for any strong to severe thunderstorm activity that moves into Rhode Island..

Very cold air aloft with sufficient wind shear and instability will set the stage for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking and have changed little since the last update. Key factors for the severe weather potential include:

1.) Radar and Satellite imagery shows a warm front swinging through the area with clouds and showers but shows reasonable clearing behind that activity. That clearing with temperatures cooling aloft rapidly should allow for the development of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.
2.) Moisture return as a warm front moves through the area through the late Morning and early afternoon hours of Monday.
3.) Wind shear values remain sufficient for strong to damaging wind potential and rotating storms that could enhance the hail threat.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor the strong to severe thunderstorm potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into self-activation mode. Note for Rhode Island SKYWARN Amateur Radio Operations, SKYWARN Net activity will be on the NB1RI (formerly KA1RCI) repeater system for any strong to severe thunderstorm activity that moves into Rhode Island. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and the SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus81.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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