Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Friday 5/15/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Scattered to Numerous Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Friday particularly across Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut but also possible in interior Northern Rhode Island through interior Northeast Massachusetts along and north and west of the Boston to Providence. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours resulting in urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats with the secondary threat for an isolated tornado particularly in Western New England..
..The Storm Prediction Center has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut in an Enhanced risk of severe weather for Western and Central Massachusetts and Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and interior Eastern Massachusetts in a slight risk for severe weather and east coastal and south coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island in a marginal risk for severe weather. The timeframe for severe weather is between 3-10 PM Friday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets are likely after 3 PM ET Friday Afternoon..

A warm front will swing through Southern New England with a period of showers and downpours Friday Morning. The front will hang up somewhere in Southern Vermont and Southern New Hampshire and Northeast Massachusetts. Clearing is expected and with the warm front in close proximity, there will be the formation of strong to severe thunderstorms in the heating and the warm front serving as a trigger. Following that a cold front will swing through the area with the potential for a squall line of severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) Clearing allows for the expected heating and destabilization as modeled.
2.) The position of the warm front verifies allowing most of Southern New England to be in the warm sector.
3.) Timing of the cold front through the area and forcing around the warm front to allow for severe thunderstorm development in the 3-10 PM time window.

SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio call-up nets are likely after 3 PM ET Friday Afternoon. The next coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Friday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200514_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box