Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Saturday 6/6/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are likely Saturday Afternoon and Evening across much Southern New England along and north and west of the Cape Cod Canal with the greatest threat in Central and Eastern Southern New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and brief heavy downpours leading to brief urban and poor drainage flooding are the primary threats..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of the NWS Norton Coverage area along and north and west of the Cape Cod Canal in a marginal risk for severe weather. Timeframe for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be in 1-7 PM Saturday Afternoon and Evening timeframe from west to east across the area..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation with Amateur Radio Call-Up Nets will monitor severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon and Evening..

A warm and muggy day is expected in Southern New England ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the region bringing an end to the warm and humid conditions. Accompanying the cold front will be the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors for today’s severe weather potential are as follows:

1.) Sufficient heating and destabilization to allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development. Satellite imagery shows significant clearing ahead of the cold front across Southern New England with lower clouds in southeast New England burning off and heading eastward. This should allow for sufficient instability coupled with sufficient wind shear for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms.
2.) Amount of dry air aloft. Some dry air aloft could allow for stronger wind gusts but too much dry air could stunt thunderstorm development in the area and affect the coverage of strong to severe thunderstorms. At this time, a broken line of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is the current likely scenario.
3.) The timing of the cold front through the region which at this time looks to occur at time of peak heating and destabilization.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor severe weather potential for Saturday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on this severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement on severe weather potential, Hazardous Weather Outlook, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2006060842.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.flus41.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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