Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Thursday 7/30/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across much of Southern New England for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban to poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has expanded the marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and Evening to all of Southern New England except for Nantucket Island. Threat timeframe is roughly between 12-9 PM Thursday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

Last night featured a couple unexpected isolated severe thunderstorms. These storms produced up to 3/4″ hail in Holyoke and Belchertown with unknown size hail reported in Palmer. The Local Storm Reports from last night’s severe weather are listed below:

NWS Boston/Norton Local Storm Reports:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007301255.nwus51.html
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007301251.nwus51.html

For today, a cold front will make its way into Southern New England on Thursday. A change from yesterday is that the marginal risk area has been expanded to northern and western parts of Southern New England through areas of Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts are favored for the severe weather potential today. Key factors on the severe weather potential are as follows:

1.) Cloud cover was a concern based on prior model runs but satellite imagery shows good clearing allowing for strong heating and destabilization. Some high cloud cover in Connecticut and Rhode Island due not appear to be reducing the potential for strong instability and destabilization. Wind shear profiles are sufficient for severe weather potential.
2.) Amount of moisture in the mid-levels of the atmosphere as if it dries out too quickly, this would not allow updrafts to reach strong to severe levels. This appears to be the main player in determining the extent of any severe weather potential.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening.This is the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Thursday 7/30/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible across areas of Southern New England essentially along and south of the Route 2 area for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban to poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the area roughly along and south of the Route 2 area in a marginal risk for severe weather for Thursday Afternoon and Evening roughly between 12-6 PM Thursday..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening..

A cold front will make its way into Southern New England on Thursday and will be draped over parts of Southern New England Thursday as we get into early to mid afternoon. Key factor on the severe weather potential are as follows:

1.) The amount of cloud cover over the region and the earlier timing of the cold front. Models are divergent in how much instability will be available given the timing of the cold front and cloud cover associated with the cold front and low clouds and fog that may exist in Southeast New England. It is noted wind shear would be sufficient for severe weather development if enough instability is available. The risk area favors areas along and south of Route 2 and from about I-91 east and southeast extending into Connecticut, Rhode Island and Southeast Massachusetts depending on whether Southeast New England can burn off the fog and the marine based low level clouds.
2.) Amount of moisture in the mid-levels of the atmosphere as if it dries out too quickly, this would not allow updrafts to reach strong to severe levels.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Thursday. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200729_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather and Heat Coordination Message #3 – Tuesday 7/28/20 Severe Weather and Heat Potential

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity Across the Region through Tuesday Evening. A cold front will bring the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England for late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Night. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday..
..An Excessive Heat Warning is now in effect for Rhode Island except for Block Island and Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Southeast Massachusetts until 8 PM tonight for heat indices up to 105. A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM Tuesday for the rest of the NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for Block Island, Marthas Vineyard, Nantucket, Western Hampden, Western Hampshire, Franklin County Massachusetts for heat indices of 100 degrees. Anyone in the excessive heat warning and heat advisory areas in particular but any part of Southern New England should drink plenty of liquids and avoid overexertion in the heat..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night..

Intense heat and humidity will be in place across Southern New England through Tuesday Evening and Rhode Island and Bristol and Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts have been upgraded to excessive heat warnings with heat advisories remaining in effect for much of the rest of Southern New England through Tuesday Evening. A cold front will bring the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England. The headlines depict the latest thinking which is little changes since yesterday. Key factors in the severe weather potential include:

1.) The timing of the cold front and that there is sufficient heating and destabilization ahead of the front. The heating and destabilization will be greatest in central and Eastern New England but western areas should monitor.
2.) Sufficient wind shear and at least some level of cooling overlapping with the front and enough instability to overcome less favorable factors for severe weather in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. This will be the last coordination message as we shift into operations mode. Below is the Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics on the heat and severe weather potential, NWS Heat Safety Tips and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics (Heat first link and Severe Weather Potential second link):
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/a.178319238929122/3154300704664279/?type=3&theater
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/a.178319238929122/3153550868072596/?type=3&theater

NWS Heat Safety Tips:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
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Severe Weather and Heat Coordination Message #2 – Tuesday 7/28/20 Heat and Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity Across the Region through Tuesday Evening. A cold front will bring the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England for late Tuesday Morning through Tuesday Night. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has continued much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM Tuesday for the entire NWS Boston/Norton Coverage area except for Block Island, Marthas Vineyard, Nantucket, Western Hampden, Western Hampshire, Franklin County Massachusetts for heat indices of 99-100 degrees. Anyone in the heat advisory area in particular but any part of Southern New England should drink plenty of liquids and avoid overexertion in the heat..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night..

Intense heat and humidity will be in place across Southern New England through Tuesday Evening and heat advisories remain in effect for much of Southern New England through Tuesday Evening. A cold front will bring the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England. The headlines depict the latest thinking. Key factors in the severe weather potential include:

1.) The timing of the cold front and that there is sufficient heating and destabilization ahead of the front. Given very warm low temperatures and at least some level of sunshine ahead of the front, even a late morning to mid afternoon timeframe for frontal passage as some models show versus Tuesday early to mid afternoon to evening will likely still allow for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development.
2.) Sufficient wind shear overlapping with the front and enough instability to overcome less favorable factors for severe weather in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. Another coordination message will be posted by 1000 AM Tuesday Morning. Below is the Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics on the heat, NWS Heat Safety Tips and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.3152067648220918/3152065598221123/?type=3&theater

NWS Heat Safety Tips:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200727_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Heat and Severe Weather Cooordination Message #1 – Monday 7/27/20-Tueday 7/28/20 Excessive Heat Potential and Tuesday 7/28/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Intense Heat and Humidity Across the Region Monday into Tuesday Evening. A cold front will bring the risk for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across much of Southern New England for Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding will be the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of Southern New England in a marginal risk for severe weather for Tuesday..
..A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM Tuesday for Northern Connecticut, Rhode Island and for Much of Massachusetts except for Cape Cod and the Islands and parts of Northwest Massachusetts. A Heat Advisory is in effect through 8 PM tonight for Franklin, Western Hampshire and Western Hampden Counties. Heat indices between 98 to 100 degrees with isolated higher heat indices are likely in the heat advisory areas. Anyone in any part of Southern New England should drink plenty of liquids and avoid overexertion in the heat..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Tuesday Afternoon through Tuesday Night. A more complete coordination message focused more on the severe weather potential will be posted by 1030 PM Monday Evening. Below is the Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement, Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook, NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics on the heat, NWS Heat Safety Tips and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook..

NWS Boston/Norton Heat Advisory Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.wwus71.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

NWS Boston/Norton Facebook Infographics:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSBoston/photos/pcb.3150865681674448/3150864041674612/?type=3&theater

NWS Heat Safety Tips:
https://www.weather.gov/safety/heat

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #3 – Thursday 7/23/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are likely across a number of locations in Southern New England this Thursday Afternoon and Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe is from 2-10 PM Thursday with a possibility of a storm or two forming an hour or two earlier in Western Massachusetts and Western Connecticut..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of Southern New England except for Cape Cod and the Islands in a Slight Risk for Severe Weather. Cape Cod and the Islands are in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed..

A round of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms affected Western Massachusetts last night from Western Worcester County westward. Wind damage was in isolated to scattered pockets. There were numerous reports and photos of a wall/funnel cloud with one of the severe thunderstorms but no tornadic damage was found. The Local Storm Report for last night’s severe weather can be seen via the following link:

https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007230211.nwus51.html

If any spotters or Amateur Radio Operators know of any additional damage reports or have photos etc. from yesterday’s severe weather, send the information along as a reply to this message, via our Facebook or Twitter feeds or to the email address pics@nsradio.org

Turning our attention to today’s severe weather potential. A cold front will bring less humid conditions to the region for the next few days. Out ahead of the cold front, we should have sufficient heating, destabilization and wind shear for the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms particularly across interior Southern New England. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Thursday are as follows:

1.) Radar and satellite imagery shows a few light showers and light clouds into parts of Western Connecticut, this could slow down heating and reduce destabilization in that area. Much of the rest of the region, however, is destabilizing with full sunshine which should produce high instability.
2.) Wind shear is a bit marginal but should be sufficient given the cold front acting as a strong triggering mechanism along with the expected high instability. Models indicate good updraft potential that should allow for hail and strong to damaging winds to develop.
3.) The severe weather potential would increase if organized short lines or squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms develops in the region. The best chance for severe weather is across interior Southern New England and particularly from Hartford to Willimantic to the Boston area north and west.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed. This will be the last coordination message on Thursday’s severe weather potential as we shift into operations mode. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Special Weather Statement, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Special Weather Statement:
https://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KBOX/2007231237.wwus81.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Wednesday Afternoon and Evening 7/22/20 and Thursday Afternoon and Evening 7/23/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe has shifted to the 3-10 PM Wednesday timeframe..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Connecticut in a Slight risk for severe weather and Eastern Connecticut into Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for east coastal Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. This represents a shift west in the highest severe weather potential and will be highly dependent on warm frontal position and heating and destabilization..
..It is also noted that there continues to be a marginal risk for severe weather for much of Southern New England Thursday. Details on the severe weather potential for Thursday will be posted in future coordination messages and will depend on the evolution of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and evening. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed..

After a brief break in the humidity on Tuesday, a warm front will bring the humidity back into the region during Wednesday Afternoon and evening and allowing for the potential of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Wednesday are as follows:

1.) The position of the warm front and how far north it makes it through Southern New England. Recent model trends have shifted it back a bit to the southwest so that the warm front will be through at least Western and Central Massachusetts and Western and Central Connecticut but not into parts of East-Central Massachusetts and Rhode Island so the slight risk area was shifted a bit westward and areas to the east continue to be in a marginal risk for severe weather. The position of the warm front and the ability for the region to heat and destabilize behind the warm front will determine the severe weather potential in the area.
2.) There have been some showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms Wednesday Morning and they have swung through the area. Satellite imagery shows clearing to allow for heating and destabilization and the key factor will be that heating and destabilization and if that continues in the warm sector with the warm frontal passage.

It is noted that there is also a marginal risk for severe weather for much of Southern New England for Thursday. The severe weather potential for Thursday is associated with a cold front and there maybe wider coverage across the region for severe weather on Thursday though some of this will hinge on what develops for strong to severe thunderstorms and any cloud cover from Wednesday Afternoon and evening. Details on the severe weather potential for Thursday will be posted in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and evening. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed. Another coordination message on the Thursday severe weather potential will be posted either by 1100 PM Wednesday Evening or 1000 AM Thursday Morning depending on severe weather operations this Wednesday Afternoon and Evening. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-1 and Day-2 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-1 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
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Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Wednesday 7/22/20 and Thursday 7/23/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe thunderstorms are possible to likely across Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours leading to urban and poor drainage flooding are the main threats. Threat timeframe is between 12-9 PM Wednesday..
..The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Western and Central Massachusetts, Most of Connecticut, and the Northwest corner of Rhode Island in a Slight Risk for severe weather and extreme Southeast Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts except for Essex County, Eastern Plymouth Counties of Massachusetts and Cape Cod and the Islands in a marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday Afternoon and Evening..
..It is also noted that there is a marginal risk for severe weather for much of Southern New England Thursday. Details on the severe weather potential for Thursday will be posted in future coordination messages..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and evening. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed..

After a brief break in the humidity on Tuesday, a warm front will bring the humidity back into the region during Wednesday Afternoon and evening and allowing for the potential of isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors on the severe weather potential for Wednesday are as follows:

1.) The position of the warm front and how far north it makes it through Southern New England. Recent model trends have shift it further northeast so that the warm front will be through at least Western and Central Massachusetts, Connecticut and Northwest Rhode Island and has resulted in an upgrade in severe weather risk to slight risk in the last Day-2 Convective Outlook.
2.) There could be some showers and a few non-severe thunderstorms Wednesday Morning swinging through the area. Clearing to allow for heating and destabilization after this precipitation moves through is another key factor in the severe weather potential. High resolution models are currently showing some level of clearing to allow severe weather development for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

It is noted that there is also a marginal risk for severe weather for much of Southern New England for Thursday. The severe weather potential for Thursday is associated with a cold front and there maybe wider coverage across the region for severe weather on Thursday. Details on the severe weather potential for Thursday will be posted in future coordination messages.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Wednesday Afternoon and evening. SKYWARN Self-Activation will also monitor the severe weather potential for Thursday Afternoon and Evening as needed. Another coordination message will be posted by 1130 AM Wednesday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 and Day-3 Convective Outlooks:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200721_1730.html

SPC Day-3 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day3otlk_20200721_0730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #2 – Monday 7/20/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..The potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms appears lower than it was yesterday and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has pulled Southern New England out of a marginal risk for severe weather. Weather models have handled the overnight isolated to scattered showers and general thunderstorms poorly, however, and may not handle activity for later this afternoon and early evening correctly..
..Will continue to monitor the potential for Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening across Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts despite the lower risk for this activity than noted Sunday Evening. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning and heavy downpours with urban and poor drainage flooding would be the main threats if any isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are able to develop. Best timeframe for any severe weather potential is 2-6 PM today..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening understanding the potential is lower than noted Sunday Evening..

Another day of intense heat and humidity will affect Southern New England Monday despite the unexpected isolated to scattered shower and general thunderstorm activity that occurred this morning. A cold front will swing through the area Monday afternoon and evening. The potential for severe weather is less than noted Sunday Evening but will still be monitored in case any isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can develop. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The ability of the atmosphere to heat up given morning cloud cover and isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Satellite imagery shows strong clearing and clouds thinning over the region so this should not be a significant factor.
2.) The amount of forcing or triggering in the atmosphere. This is strongest north of Southern New England.
3.) Drier air in the mid levels of the atmosphere may not allow strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and keep them to more lower topped showers or general thunderstorms. If models incorrectly diagnose too much dry air in the mid levels of the atmosphere, that would mean a better chance for strong to severe thunderstorm development.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. This will be the last coordination message on Monday’s severe weather potential. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion and Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
http://www.wx1box.org
Like us on Facebook – http://www.facebook.com/wx1box
Follow us on Twitter – http://twitter.com/wx1box

Severe Weather Coordination Message #1 – Monday Afternoon and Evening – 7/20/20 Severe Weather Potential

Hello to all…

..Isolated to Scattered Strong to Severe Thunderstorms are possible Monday Afternoon and Evening in much of Southern New England away from Southeast Coastal New England. Strong to damaging winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours with the potential for urban to poor drainage flooding are the main threats. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed Eastern Connecticut, Rhode Island and Eastern Massachusetts away from the southeast coast in a marginal risk for severe weather..
..SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening..

Another day of intense heat and humidity will affect Southern New England Monday. A cold front will swing through the area Monday Afternoon and evening. The headlines depict the current thinking. Key factors include:

1.) The timing of the cold front with the time of max heating and destabilization
2.) The amount of forcing or triggering in the atmosphere. It could be strongest north of Southern New England but with the atmosphere so unstable, the instability could compensate for less triggering in the atmosphere and it may only take a small trigger in the atmosphere to allow for strong to severe thunderstorm development.
3.) The marginal wind shear and whether this will be sufficient for strong to damaging winds. Its noted that in Michigan, wind gusts over 80 MPH occurred with severe thunderstorms along the cold front. Its possible wind fields could be stronger than modeled and will bear watching.

SKYWARN Self-Activation will monitor the severe weather potential for Monday Afternoon and Evening. Another coordination message will be posted by 10 AM Monday Morning. Below is the NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion, Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook and SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:

NWS Boston/Norton Area Forecast Discussion:
https://kamala.cod.edu/ma/latest.fxus61.KBOX.html

NWS Boston/Norton Experimental Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

SPC Day-2 Convective Outlook:
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2020/day2otlk_20200719_1730.html

Respectfully Submitted,

Robert Macedo (KD1CY)
ARES SKYWARN Coordinator
Eastern Massachusetts ARES Section Emergency Coordinator
Home Phone #: (508) 994-1875 (After 6 PM)
Home/Data #: (508) 997-4503 (After 6 PM)
Work Phone #: 508-346-2929 (8 AM-5 PM)
Email Address: rmacedo@rcn.com
http://ares.ema.arrl.org
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